在本周晚些时候，在堪萨斯城艾滋病福利的杰克逊洞研讨会上，欧洲仍然是宏观和地缘政治风险叙述的重点。虽然过去几个月出现了一些积极的信号，例如惠誉升级长期爱尔兰债务，但经济学家和市场分析师的整体情绪仍然是令人困惑的。大卫罗森伯格，主要经济学家和策略家在多伦多的财富管理公司Gluskin Sheff + Associates，“毫无否认，欧元抵抗最少的路径下降。”周四的法国和德国的购买经理指数正在热切期待私营部门活动步伐的任何信号。在地缘政治风险方面，乌克兰官员今天在周一对一名车队的袭击发布了攻击，没有幸存者强调了该国东部冲突的加速风险。
Inflation contracts in the U.K.July U.K. consumer price inflation released today came in softer than forecast at an annualized 1.6 percent. In light of concerns over disinflationary conditions, the prospect of tightening actions by Bank of England policymakers in the near term is less likely. An analyst focus over the Monetary Policy Committee notes due tomorrow will be any division between members on prospects for any further positive impact of accommodative policy on labor markets there.
中国银行利润增长放缓。国内银行于2014年第二季度的净收入增长8.5％，低于分析师预测。批判性地，银行对坏账的增加的规定代表了金融机构上次报告的一倍多的水平。投资者正在关注中国贷款人的信用质量问题，最近几周官方的中国媒体渠道上有一个主题决策者。分别，在昨天7月份报告的家庭价格水平的收缩之后，七天回购率在银行间市场的多月份收缩率，作为流动性干预的前景中国人民银行变得更有可能。
U.S. prices at the cash register expected to edge up ever so slightly.7月的消费者通货膨胀将在美国释放。达人预测要求核心水平的边际增加，但标题指数在较弱的能源价格上仅在月份的0.1〜0.2％上推出。今天早上，SociétéGénérale的跨资产研究小组写道，该指数的增加0.2％将使年度率推动到美国联邦储备目标门槛以上的2.2％。
第二季度盈利季节进入家庭延伸。U.S. companies announcing second-quarter 2014 earnings today include Minneapolis–headquartered medical products manufacturer — and recentcorporate inversion- Medtronic和Boston的折扣零售连锁TJX公司。亚特兰大总部家庭改善零售商Home Depot今天早上报道了同样的销售，击败分析师的预测，为推动1.52美元的收益的期限明显为5.8％，这是一个反弹，这也是美国房主活动的积极征兆。在欧洲，丹麦航运巨头AP Moeller Maersk通过年底提高了其盈利指导，对运输集装箱的强劲需求。
投资组合视角：多才类财富的机会主义定位-Ignacio Pakciarz, BigSur Partners
经过2008年级的金融危机，我们一直处于漫长而缓慢的经济和市场周期，其中巨大的金额已经陷入了更多的资本市场的液体区域。随着美联储在10月的定量宽松，我们在Bigsur认为欧洲央行将很快开始定量宽松，延长这一循环至少还有两三年。这个循环使得在三个传统资产类别中难以看到明确的价值。对于一个，难以保持现金，当实际上，它产生-2％。投资者仍应以至少10％的现金持有至少10％，以便利用可能快速的机会所需的灵活性，如此黑天鹅erupt and capital markets sell off quickly. For bonds, our estimated annual performance of a diversified fixed-income portfolio over the next five years is 1–2 percent. While high-grade bonds offer negative real rates, credit spreads are at their tightest level ever. As Fed ChairJanet Yellenalerted investors, valuations in the high-yield markets are extreme. Stocks are slightly overvalued, but offer more value compared to the other two primary asset classes.
我们的五年预测换取股票是about 5–6 percent a year, down from 18 percent at the beginning of the bull market, of which we believe we’re in the seventh inning. While the focus will be on corporate earnings, stocks will likely go up in price from the 16 to 18 times earnings at the peak of the cycle. Investors are coming to stocks searching for yield — which is rare. All in all, the opportunity in traditional asset classes is limited on an absolute basis as well as on a relative basis compared to the investment landscape of five years ago.
So where does this leave us? We at BigSur focus on finding nontraditional revenue-producing assets that offer intrinsic value of about 10 percent or real rates of roughly 8 percent. These include core commercial real estate; opportunistic hard-money lending (against high-quality assets); private debt and other niche asset classes, such as investing in debt securities that are collateralized with royalty streams from, for example, leading pharmaceuticals. We believe that with time, liquidity will also end up flowing into and pushing up the values of these types of nontraditional assets.
Ignacio Pakciarz是Bigsur Partners的创始合作伙伴，位于迈阿密的全球多摩利楼。