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每日议程:苏格兰转向独立投票的民意调查

日本出口仍然疲软;美国住房开始和乔布斯数据今天发布;房价落在中国。

与联邦公开市场委员会昨天重申它认为它会采取“相当长的时间“在收紧货币政策之前,投资者现在正在重新关注近期地缘政治因素。这苏格兰公民投票表决现在正在进行,轮询显示一个紧凑的比赛。这种脚踏线戏剧是全球市场的主导风险叙述,其延伸超越了英镑和U.K.风险资产在欧洲其他地方的可能性,特别是西班牙的加泰罗尼亚地区。与此同时,欧洲投资者通过对天然气市场可能惩罚性俄罗斯行动的影响来促进冬季,为冬季审议。

日本释放出口数据疲软。日本财政部贸易数据今天释放今天,同比萎缩1.3%,明显优于共识预测。本月国际贸易总额达到赤字9485亿日元(88.3亿美元)。多元经济学家注意到,许多关键行业的地理位置生产均钝了对日元较弱对出口需求的影响。作为日本恢复致辞after a modest increase in consumption taxes earlier this year, the administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe faces a stark dilemma: With weak export demand, reinvigorating consumption at home is an imperative, but delaying further tax hikes next year will mean delaying addressing the nation’s massive debt-to-GDP ratio.

欧洲中央银行扩展信贷短暂。ECB启动的目标长期贷款设施总额为8.3亿欧元(1075亿美元),扩展信贷远远低于达克兰六百万欧元至3亿欧元。为期四年贷款银行的需求可能因欧洲央行对该地区所有贷方的监管控制的监管控制的持续综合评估而归因于持续的综合评估。无论原因如何,银行承担廉价资本的不愿意对银行的政策制定者感到失望,他们试图诱导更大的私营部门贷款。第二个设施于12月结束。

中国房价下跌。全国统计局统计局今年8月份的数据今天发布的数据表明,在报告中涵盖的70个城市中的两个月中的所有月份的价格缩小。这average NBSC national price index has contracted by 11 percent in the first eight months of this year versus the same period in 2013. This indicates that targeted policies by the People’s Bank of China, designed to cool flows of money into excessive property speculation, appear to have had their desired effect.

美国职位和房屋开始于上午8:30发布的数据。Initial jobless claims numbers for the week are expected to improve over last week’s spike of 11,000 new claimants. While the long-term trend for the pace of new job seekers continues to be positive, the uptick in the numbers of newly unemployed in recent weeks has caught the attention of investors, as the劳动力市场仍然是美联储政策的重点. July housing start data will also be released this morning with consensus forecasts for a modest contraction after a surprise jump in June to an annual pace of more than 1 million new units.

黄金市场在中国开放。Today was the first session of trading in Shanghai Gold Exchange open to foreign investors with 40 international banks and brokers providing access. As the largest consumer of gold in the world, the opening of China's spot bullion market to outside investors is expected to reduce price distortions between levels in Shanghai and those of other markets such as the London Metals Exchange.

投资组合视角:北京采取了衡量的回应-Eric Lascelles, RBC Global Asset Management

中国经济数据一直稳定在201人4. The year began on an atrocious note, before stabilizing. Yet this latest round of economic data has reverted back to a more sour trajectory, with trade flows decelerating, waning iron ore prices and decelerating industrial production and credit growth. Money supply growth has also dipped.

考虑到以前导致的漫无目的地导致的漫无目的地危险的信用刺激,政策制定者今天更加谨慎地提供大规模刺激。这500亿元(812亿美元)流动性注射代表了各项决策者的衡量响应,因为他们寻求平衡增长和稳定目标。中国经济增长应继续缓慢,在明年的7%门槛下滑。

最终,鉴于充足的国家政府资源和重要的结构改革,中国的经济和/或金融灾难仍然可能会被避免避免。

Eric Lascelles是首席经济学家RBC全球资产管理in Toronto.