Share Buybacks Slow as Scrutiny Rises

不久前，投资者反思地称赞了大公司股票回购的公告。但最近的回购持怀疑态度最近成长，正如孟山脉有限公司在6月份发现，当时它宣布了1000亿美元的股票回购计划，这是今年任何公司最大的。总部位于2013财年的资本支出的基于ST.的ST.的基于Sagusiness收购了超过13倍，以购买股票，希望每股盈利增加一倍。

Most share buybacks rarely generate much comment beyond approval. But in Monsanto’s recent conference call, the buyback plan triggered a flood of questions. Analysts Kevin McCarthy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Mark Gulley at BGC Financial and Joel Jackson at BMO Capital Markets urged Monsanto chief financial officer Pierre Courduroux to discuss the company’s motivation and expectations. How would the buyback affect alternative uses of capital? How much growth would come from repurchases and how much from net income? How did Monsanto settle on its target leverage?

This barrage of questions fetched mostly routine answers. “When we voted on the buyback, we assessed potential for growth and potential for cash generation,” Courduroux said. “So we feel we will be able to fund the business and growth going forward.” He left questions about credit ratings to Standard & Poor’s, which downgraded Monsanto three notches a few days later, to BBB+, near the lower cusp of investment grade. S&P also reduced the company’s risk profile assessment to intermediate from minimal.

No one asked Courduroux to defend the $10 billion buyback as a sound investment of shareholders’ capital. But Monsanto’s track record on buyback return on investment has been decidedly subpar and lags the medians of both the 274 companies in亚博赞助欧冠’s Corporate Buyback Scorecard and its peers in the materials sector. Monsanto can’t say that two years isn’t enough time for buybacks to produce satisfactory returns. The company ranked at 103 in the second quarter of 2013, when it only beat the medians by narrow margins. Since then buyback returns have gone south.

回购 ScorecardCFOs Share Their Stock Buyback Secrets标准普尔500指数股票回购者Best and Worst Programs行业比较

To keep tabs on companies that spend on buyback programs,IIhas tracked buyback ROI each quarter since January 2013. The Corporate Buyback Scorecard, developed and computed by New York–basedFortuna Advisors, pulls back the curtain that often shielded buybacks from scrutiny.

Without benchmarks companies can freely spend on stock repurchases with little accountability. The scorecard reports on stock repurchase performance at companies in the S&P 500 that bought back shares worth more than 4 percent of their market capital over the eight quarters through June.

记分卡揭示了一个广泛的结果。的Technology Hardware and Equipment sector posted collective buyback ROI of nearly 34 percent, for first place, followed by Media companies, which delivered 30.4 percent. These two sectors also retired the most market capital: 9.1 percent and 8.6 percent, respectively. By contrast, Telecommunications Services delivered just 5.7 percent in buyback ROI, retiring 5.9 percent of capital in the process.

Notwithstanding multibillion-dollar buybacks this year at Monsanto, Discover Financial Services, Gilead Sciences, Twenty-first Century Fox and a handful of other companies, quarterly data reveals a definite slowdown in the pace of buybacks. During the second quarter 29 buybacks committed some $40 billion, well short of 42 announcements worth $93 billion in the first quarter and 55 totaling $133 billion in 2013’s fourth quarter. A year ago 68 companies promised nearly $90 billion in buybacks. By 2013 standards, Monsanto’s $10 billion program would have warranted only seventh place, behind programs atApple, IBM Corp., Merck & Co., 3M Co., Wal-Mart Stores and ?Yahoo.

许多归因于回购的放缓，以便在过去一年超过2万亿美元，这是自2017年前金融危机以来的最高水平。但是，使用现金购买回股是一个复杂的并购市场。有些公司可能希望为潜在的并购交易提供现金和借贷权力。但现金也可能吸引收购出价。

Stock markets near their historical tops also affect the pace of buybacks. “One of the dangers managers face is that they end up doing buybacks when stock prices look high,” says Douglas Skinner, a professor of accounting at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business.

Still, share price increases alone may not satisfy buyback appetites. Delphi Automotive, an auto-parts supplier once based in Michigan but now headquartered in the U.K., still has $700 million left in its latest buyback program, which will be funded from cash flow. Despite a robust share price gain of 25 percent that outpaced the S&P 500 by 4 percentage points from August, 22, 2013, to August 27, 2014, the company still intends to deploy those funds. “We believe our stock price is undervalued by any measure,” says Delphi CFO Kevin Clark, “and therefore it is not an issue.” Clark has recent history on his side. Delphi ranks No. 10 in current buyback ROI overall and leads the Automobiles and Components sector.

In consultation with Delphi’s investor relations and treasury departments, Clark says that he guides buyback strategy subject to board approval. Treasurer Brad Spiegel pulls the trigger on day-to-day execution. “We don’t turn any decisions over to outsiders,” Clark says. “We establish guidelines on a medium, long-term and daily basis with respect to appetite, dollar threshold and dollar amount.”

第二个记分卡公制，回购有效性，揭示了井上定时执行的上行中的明显下降。回购有效性跟踪六个记分卡，回购有效性将回购投资回报率与基础股东回报率联系起来。记分卡代表那些股东回报率为第三公制回购策略。

回购投资回购投资回购策略时，回购计划会产生积极的结果 - 即，当回购计划创造高于股东的总回报率高之前。公司通过回购股票以低于价格趋势的水平来创造积极的回购效力。零中位回购可能意味着在进行投资决策时，对内部信息经理的进入提供没有特定的优势。负回购效力表明，管理人员正在比外部投资者更糟糕。

的current scorecard shows a market-timing bonus of almost zero. A year ago timing gave buyback ROI a shot of adrenaline, and median buyback effectiveness approached 20 percent.

一些公司因回购效力而蔑视衰退。由于Apple宣布去年回购以来，其回购效率为34％，有助于燃料回购投资回购。Cupertino，California，公司咆哮，一年前从返回Roi的下一到最后一个地方到46. Palo Alto，加利福尼亚州的Hewlett-Packard Co.排名第二是回购效力和回购ROI总体上的第六次。

A year ago San Antonio, Texas–basedTesoro Corp.的回购ROI排名靠近Apple- 它仍然滞后于210家公司。在Tesoro的问题中增加了糟糕的时间。该公司以股票价格下跌回购股份，产生了记分卡最糟糕的回购效果：-27.5％。所有除了18家公司，目前的记分卡达到了积极领土的回购资源，但约有138家公司报告了负回购效果。

At the other end of the ranking, a 117 percent buyback ROI easily put Keurig Green Mountain, a Waterbury, Vermont–based maker of coffee brewing systems, at the top of the list for the second consecutive scorecard. Keurig initiated a $500 million share repurchase program in July 2012 and reported buying 5.6 million shares in fiscal 2013 at an average price per share of $33.37. Initial results encouraged the board to authorize a second buyback for $1 billion, following a number of quarters in which repurchases hovered near or below the $100 million mark. Undeterred by a stock price that had rocketed above $100 a share, Keurig poured $700 million into buybacks in 2014’s first quarter, reporting that during the 39 weeks through the end of June it had paid an average price of $102.27 for 7.7 million shares.

Keurig’s continued run of robust buyback ROI now rests on the introduction of its latest, soon-to-be-released coffee brewer, dubbed Keurig 2.0. Analysts at BofA Merrill Lynch caution about rising material costs and hefty investment in product launches at the company. They recently lifted earnings estimates for fiscal 2014 and 2015 but retain a neutral outlook. If Keurig stumbles, the recent buyback program could weigh it down.

Dallas-based Southwest Airlines Co. returns to the top ten, landing at No. 2 by posting buyback ROI of 91.6 percent. Third-ranked Milpitas, California–based SanDisk Corp. generated 73.5 percent buyback ROI.

许多其他公司缺乏像Keurig和Southwest这样的快速种植者的灵活性。濒危学生贷款服务器萨利Mae，靠近记分卡底部的陷阱，令人沮丧的回购投资回报率和回购有效性分数。在Navient和其他地方，Janney Capital Markets分析师同名同龄人博克尔表示，“管理层一般在计时回购方面一直差。”但是Navient的选择有限。“其他考虑因素是公司在可以部署资本的地方产生多少现金和资本，”Gokhale说。基于特拉华州的威尔明顿的威尔明顿可以找到没有更好的投资地点，回购比资本货物或并购更谨慎。“管理层没有办法赢得胜利，”Gokhale Notes。“总是有些选区感到失望。”

的rise in buyback programs after the financial crisis stirred academic interest in the phenomenon, particularly the question of whether managers make timely buyback decisions. Buybacks are a test of the market judgment of senior executives. Managers make few pivotal investment decisions with more facts at hand.

Using data from stock repurchases by 2,237 U.S. companies from 2004 through 2011, finance professors Amy Dittmar of the Stephen M. Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan and Laura Field of Pennsylvania State University’s Smeal College of Business tackled the question of timing. Their paper, “Can Managers Time the Market? Evidence Using Repurchase Pricing Data,” crunches the prices companies report each month on repurchased shares and average stock price data before and after repurchases.

的verdict: Market timing does add value. “The median firm repurchases stock at a price that is 1.8% lower than the average closing price six months before to six months after the repurchase,” the authors conclude.

的y saw differences between companies that buy back stock frequently and those that repurchase only when they judge market conditions to be suitable. Frequent repurchasers generally have higher market-to-book ratios, less volatility and narrower bid-ask spreads. Frequent repurchasers also tend to retire more shares in a year.

Opportunistic companies display a decided edge. They repurchase shares, on average, at prices 6 to 8 percent below average monthly closing prices. The benefit persists, the authors say, for as long as three years from the repurchase date.

有证据表明，市场时机工作坐落于公司往往会错过回购机会。“当你看看，平均而言，在市场在市场良好的时间里令人沮丧的时间里，购买的几年来就会显着下降，”杜克大学的福克大学商学院约翰格雷厄姆金融教授表示。“在便宜或低估的时候，公司并没有似乎公司成功地重新购买股票。”

与其他踏上回购的公司一样，Monsanto无法保证结果。但至少公司毫无疑问地对其意图留下了毫无疑问。它不是在一些未指明的点处用现金流量回购其股票的承诺，而是锁定了加速的回购。在接下来的12个月内，Monsanto将以60亿美元的批量回购股票，从JPMorgan Chase＆Co.和来自Goldman Sachs集团的一半。这是信心。我们必须等待看它是否产生所需的结果。•