投资者对越南的兴趣与日俱增。产能也会上升吗？

越南去年跃升到投资者的雷达屏幕时，其首席股票交易所上涨了20%，表现最好的任何交易所在东南亚。外国机构被本地蓝筹股公司的盈利增长以及2008年至2011年一轮通胀和货币疲软后经济稳定的恢复所吸引。

Foreign money continues to flow in, but the tide is fast pressing up against the capacity limits of the 14-year-old Hochiminh Stock Exchange and the even tinier bourse in the capital of Hanoi. Investment managers are urging the country’s Communist government to take a number of measures, including opening the market wider to foreign investors, to sustain the momentum. Many are optimistic that the authorities will act soon.

“这是一个长期的过程，类似于其他亚洲国家20多年来所做的事情，”总部位于胡志明市、管理着14亿美元资产的基金经理Dragon Capital Group首席投资官比尔•斯托普斯（Bill Stoops）表示。他预计，当局将允许或鼓励更多的公司股票上市，以及建立养老基金和期货合约。

越南官员正在研究让移动eign institutions buy majority shares of local firms and to foster the creation of more domestic institutional investors, which would stoke trading volume in the notoriously illiquid market. In November 2013 the Finance Ministry said it planned to raise foreign ownership ceilings in local companies. Although officials haven’t made any announcements, fund managers predict the ceiling for most companies will rise from the current 49 percent to 60 percent in the first quarter of 2015. The limit for offshore investment in Vietnamese banks will go from 30 percent to 49 percent, state media say.

由2016 the government is expected to create the country’s first public institutional investor, a retirement fund. Currently, the state social security system, the Viet Nam Social Security Fund, invests mostly in Treasury bills and bank deposits.

Foreign institutions, which already own an estimated 10 to 15 percent of the market, would eagerly buy shares in response to any of those changes, executives say. “An increasing number of fund managers are visiting Vietnam because they are searching for the next big investment story in Asia after the run-up in ASEAN emerging markets in the past few years,” says Marc Djandji, institutional sales and brokerage head at VPBank Securities in Ho Chi Minh City, referring to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Growth has been running at a steady pace of roughly 5.25 to 6.25 percent for the past six years, and the International Monetary Funds projects output will expand by 5.6 percent this year. Inflation cooled to 6.6 percent last year after spiking to 18.7 percent in 2011, while the dong has held steady for the past 14 months at around 21,000 to the dollar. Foreign direct investment (FDI) rose 2.3 percent in the first seven months of this year, to $6.8 billion, notwithstanding a wave of anti-China riots in May that left several people dead and damaged scores of foreign-owned factories.

“Vietnam remains a beaming light in Asia, thanks to its extraordinary growth potential,” says Phuong Hoang, senior institutional research and investment advisory director with local brokerage and asset manager Saigon Securities. “The one-party power grip over the country has ensuredmacro在外国直接投资继续流入制造业的同时，稳定、抑制通货膨胀和（促进）非常稳定的汇率。”

河内正在推进其他改革，以巩固经济和市场。中国政府要求占国内生产总值（gdp）约32%的国有企业在明年前剥离大部分非核心资产，为首次公开发行（ipo）做准备。为了加强银行体系并减少不良贷款（穆迪投资者服务公司估计不良贷款占银行体系总资产的15%），政府已通知国有坏账买家越南资产管理公司（Vietnam Asset Management Co.）提供债券，商业银行可将其用作向金融管理局贷款的抵押品。“国有企业和银行业重组正在进行中，预计将带来经济前景的改善和新的投资机会，”Hoang说。

今年上半年，外国投资者在胡志明市交易所净买入2.8亿美元，高于2013年全年的2.63亿美元。越共基金管理公司（vietfundmanagement）副首席执行官Luong Thi My Hang表示，来自海外的资金已达到该国38家蓝筹股公司中7家公司49%的持股上限，其中包括电信运营商FPT Corp.和DHG制药股份有限公司（DHG Pharmaceutical Joint Stock Co.），这表明当政府提高这些上限时，将存在被抑制的需求，胡志明市一家管理9500万美元资产的公司。

Yet the market’s capacity remains limited. The stock market has a total capitalization of $55 billion, barely a third of the country’s $155 billion gross domestic product. Most investors look at just 30 to 50 of the 750 companies listed on the Ho Chi Minh City bourse. Many overlooked firms are state-controlled and have weak fundamentals. The 80 biggest listed state-controlled firms “are losing bucketloads and bucketloads of money,” says Ralf Matthaes, owner of the local business consultancy In-Focus.

其他因素也对市场造成了冲击。大约五年前，一些国内企业在房地产和股票领域亏损后，政府禁止它们在核心业务之外进行投资，限制了机构投资的潜在来源。越南也缺乏一个拥有投资资产的国家养老金计划，这是许多亚洲金融市场的支柱，但越南政府去年制定了允许组建私人计划的指导方针。胡志明市PXP越南资产管理公司首席执行官凯文•斯诺鲍（kevinsnowball）表示：“养老基金将产生巨大的影响。”。“这里没有制度基础可言。”

More investment by local institutions would raise liquidity from trading volumes that have averaged $150 million to $200 million a day over the past six months. “Private pension funds and the ETF industry have just been born this year,” notes Fiachra Mac Cana, research head at Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp. “It will take several years to grow in size and become a factor in the equity market. I guess three to five years.”

为了反映市场的信心，VietFund在8月份推出了一只950万美元的交易所买卖基金，这是第一只来自本地机构的基金。该基金名为VFMVN30，旨在跟踪交易所的蓝筹股指数VN30。越南社会保障基金（VietFund）正与越南社会保障基金（VietFund）的养老金计划商讨担任其首家外部资产管理公司的事宜，预计明年会有反馈。Dragon Capital的Stoops称，越共母公司Dragon Capital正将其成立一年、价值1500万美元的越南股票UCITS基金作为新开放式基金的“模板”。西贡证券（sigon Securities）计划提供一只本地开放式基金和一只ETF，而PXP将探索在能够获得本地牌照的情况下推出一只ETF。

The market also stands to get a boost from the government’s decision to create a state-run, centralized derivatives market in 2016. That market would add liquidity and allow hedging activities for the first time in Vietnam, says Stoops.

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