巴西’s Credit Rating at Risk Unless Dilma Rousseff Embraces Reform

分析人士说，除非连任总统迪尔玛·罗塞夫改弦更张，着手进行重大经济改革，否则巴西将失去令人垂涎的投资级信用评级。

“Brazil is now trapped in a stagflation equilibrium with high inflation and with three of the last four quarters posting negative economic growth,” says Alberto Ramos, New York–based head of Latin America economic research at Goldman Sachs Group. “I cannot see the government dramatically changing its economic policy during the second term. It might make a few adjustments on the monetary and fiscal sides, but this will not be enough to restore market confidence.”

金融市场很快就对选民的投票决定表示失望return Rousseff to the presidency雷亚尔面临压力，巴西股市在10月26日大选后立即下跌。巴西中央银行（Banco centraldo Brasil）10月29日出人意料地将政策利率上调25个基点，至11.25%，帮助稳定了市场。分析人士对此表示欢迎。分析人士说，罗塞夫在竞选期间曾反对加息的必要性，央行的迅速行动显示出对抗通胀的真正决心。

“The central bank’s recent rate hike indicates that it has real autonomy,” says Bruno Rovai, New York–based Brazil economist at Barclays. “Brazil is different from some other Latin American countries because it has very strong institutions, not only the central bank but also the electoral courts, the supreme court and the Congress.”

然而巴西资产价格仍然疲软。真正的价格在周一的2.5374年到美元，从6月初开始的2.49点，下降近12％。The São Paulo Stock Exchange’s IBOVESPA index was trading around 53,600 on Monday, up 4.1 percent for the year to date but down more than 13 percent from its high for the year in early September, when a surge of support for opposition candidate Marina Silva was fanning hopes of a change in leadership. (Silva was eliminated in the first round of voting in early October.)

The country’s economic numbers are deteriorating.巴西在第二季度进入技术经济衰退，大多数经济学家认为产出在下半年继续下降。该国12个月的12个月滚动消费者价格通胀率目前目前约为6.5％，位于中央银行的目标范围为4.5％的4.5％或减去2个百分点。10月份贸易逆差达到了117亿美元，自此以来最高？1998年。

财政状况也恶化。9月份公共部门张贴了比预期的主要赤字（不包括债务服务费用排除）255亿瑞目（101亿美元）。在12月底到9月底，综合公共部门的主要财政盈余占国内生产总值的0.61％，实质上低于政府的目标1.9％。今年该国将在近二十年面临第一次年度初级赤字。双本财政和当前账户赤字现在以8.6％的GDP占GDP的汇编，近15年的最糟糕的照片。

Market participants are eagerly awaiting the appointment of a new finance minister to replace Guido Mantega, an incumbent and Rousseff loyalist who analysts say damaged the government’s credibility with loose fiscal policy and overly optimistic economic forecasts. Analysts expect Rousseff to choose a nominee this month from a short list that includes Nelson Barbosa, former deputy finance minister; Alexandre Tombini, the central bank president; and Luciano Coutinho, president of the powerful National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES).

分析师表示，预约Barbosa可以发送财政纪律的欢迎信号。Barbosa于2011年到2013年是副筹资部长，但显然是因为与曼蒂巴和财政部长Arno Augustin的差异，涉嫌创造性会计，以满足政府的财政目标。

从2011年以来，托木尼队领导了央行，最初被视为货币政策的愿望，但持续速度上涨速度上升，以遏制通胀压力。Coutinho以自2008年级的金融危机以来，这一代理机构大幅增长;BNDES在2013年延长了190亿reais，比世界银行更多的三分之一。分析师认为他是致力于国家干预经济的人。

分析人士质疑，鉴于罗塞夫热衷于微观管理经济政策，新任财长将有多大回旋余地。”“迪尔玛在她的第一个任期内非常密切地参与了经济管理，”巴克莱银行的罗瓦伊说她目前的议程上似乎只有政治改革——例如，没有微观经济政策的改革。我认为政府的经济方法没有发生任何有意义的变化。或许会有更可靠的财政数据，但仅此而已。”

在前总统路易斯安那的领导下á巴西首席信息官卢拉达席尔瓦（luladasilva）的经济表现创下一代人以来的最佳水平，年平均增长率约为4%。尽管由于大豆和铁矿石等大宗商品出口的蓬勃发展，巴西受益于贸易条件的大幅提升，但分析人士认为，卢拉在为较贫穷的巴西人提供收入支持的同时，也为私营部门提供了相当大的回旋余地，从而促进了消费。

During Rousseff’s first term, growth slowed to an average of about 1.6 percent a year, a weaker performance than all but two presidential administrations since Brazil became a republic in 1889. In September the government cut its growth forecast for this year to 0.9 percent from 1.8 percent previously, but most private economists predict the growth rate will be barely positive for the year, given the decline in the first half.

总统在国家控制企业的事务中受到了冠军国家参与经济，如石油巨头的国家控制企业的干涉。在Rousseff的第一个任期内，由于公司所闻名，因此销售损失为440亿美元，主要来自政府被迫销售低于市场价格的燃料。Rousseff是一名​​前能源部长，在假设总统之前担任Petrobras董事会主席。

在选举活动期间，Petrobras损坏了腐败的指控。据巴西新闻报道称，这是一名前执行局的前行政管理驾驶员，告诉检察官，他被逮捕，他被逮捕，他被逮捕了，他被逮捕了。巴西新闻报道，据称的回扣计划将资金从Petrobras合同转移到政治家，主要是Rousseff工人党的成员。据报道称，普罗斯·普罗斯在审计员普华永道拒绝签署其第三季度盈利后，Petrobras推出了第三季度收益的发布o estado de s. paulo.

根据2003年以来一直处于权力的Rousseff和Lula的工人派对，该国的总体税收造成的总体税收从国内生产总值的32.6％升至36.4％。

Arminio Fraga, who was central bank president from 1999 to 2002 and drafted the economic platform of Aécio Neves, the centrist presidential candidate of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party whom Rousseff defeated in the October 26 runoff election, argues that the country’s economy can be fixed only by restoring credibility to the budget and by bringing inflation down to the long-term target of 4.5 percent. Fraga, who is co-CIO of Gávea Investimentos, a Brazilian hedge fund firm owned by JPMorgan Chase & Co., had promised to reform the country’s tax system if Neves won and appointed him finance minister, by introducing a national value-added tax and by removing taxes on exports and investments.

巴西并没有立即失去来之不易的投资级地位的危险——巴西自2008年以来一直享有这一地位——但如果罗塞夫不改变策略，它可能在2015年面临降级。

In March Standard & Poor’s downgraded Brazil’s foreign currency rating to BBB−, the lowest investment-grade rating. “We downgraded the sovereign because of the lack of transparency on the fiscal side,” says Lisa Schineller, managing director, Latin America sovereigns at S&P. “All the maneuvering weakened macro credibility. We felt that the weak fiscal situation was likely to continue. What happens next depends on whether public debt continues to rise, the signals that the government gives the markets and the overall execution of economic policy.”

9月，穆迪将巴西Baa2评级展望从稳定下调至负面，比投机评级高出两个等级穆迪（Moody's）拉丁美洲主权风险集团（Latin-America sovereign risk group）经理毛罗莱奥斯（Mauro Leos）表示：“巴西今年公布的数据比预期的要糟糕得多。”下一届政府将面临一个相当严峻的经济困境。不断恶化的债务与GDP之比数据证明了为什么市场担心巴西可能会失去投资级别。这对国家来说是件大事。”

“巴西在过去四年中感到失望”，“莱斯补充道。“投资者可以处理一个糟糕的一年，但他们连续四个贫困年度有更大的问题。”

Gross general government debt rose to 61.7 percent of GDP in September from 56.7 percent and 53.4 percent of GDP in 2010. It rose above the 60 percent level on two previous occasions during the past 12 years, in 2002 and 2009, but quickly fell below the threshold as growth accelerated. “The concern is that the debt level will continue rising this time round,” says Leos. “We will decide next year whether or not we have to change the credit rating.”

巴西’s situation is so precarious that some analysts believe it may force a change of policy by Rousseff. As yet, however, there are no real signs of that happening.

“In my view, Brazil is on a knife edge,” says Goldman Sachs’s Ramos. “I think it will surprise in either a very positive way or a very negative one.”