俄罗斯Touts Gas Deal at St. Petersburg, but Who’s Listening?

俄罗斯n officials opened the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on Thursday looking to reaffirm their country’s status as a raw-materials superpower that can withstand attempts by the U.S. and the European Union to isolate it over its policies in Ukraine.

据估计，莫斯科的自信得到了400亿美元，在论坛前夕与中国达成了30年的自然气供应协议。俄罗斯和中国在弗拉基米尔·普京总统的为上海进行了数十次其他协议，从他们的各种边界到中国长城汽车公司的新桥梁到俄罗斯汽车组装的新桥梁投资500万美元。“上海发生了什么，变革，转折点，”副经济学部长阿列克谢·利希希霍夫在论坛上讲了一个小组，该国的签名经济和商业聚会。

But optimism was not universal, even among the Russian leadership. Likhachev’s own boss, Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev, poked fun at government inefficiency and red tape during a separate panel. “We say we are reforming the tax system, then it turns out that is not exactly so,” he said. “We say we want to help small business, but actually, we weigh it down with more regulation.”

俄罗斯的一些高管echoed this theme more passionately. “I spent my visit to Asia thinking about one number,” said Ruslan Alikhanov, chief executive of Far Eastern Shipping Co., a logistics company whose main operations are in Russia’s Far East. “In Russia it takes 24 to 48 hours for one container of freight to pass Customs. In Singapore it takes 17 seconds.”

与此同时，外国管理人员原来比地面更加稀缺many had expected。本月早些时候，奥巴马政府敦促美国高管不参加今年的论坛，以及若干首席执行官 - 包括如Goldman Sachs Group的Lloyd Blankfein和Pepsico的Formbitués。indra nooyi.— indicated prior to the event that they would not be coming. But the Global CEO Summit that kicked off the forum on Thursday was more notable for its absences. Robert Dudley, the CEO of oil giant BP; Grant Porter, vice chairman of Barclays Capital, and Daniel Pinto, CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s corporate and investment bank, were all no-shows, despite being billed as participants in the event program.

普京既不计划在星期五提供论坛的主题演讲，也不是国有的天然气巨头Gazpromrevealed the price China will pay under the new megadeal, leaving investors uncertain about its financial as opposed to political advantages. The two sides had been negotiating the pact for ten years, and they reportedly reached an agreement only at 4 a.m. Wednesday morning, Putin’s last day in Shanghai. Analysts in Moscow assume the price will be between $350 and $380 per thousand cubic meters of gas. That is comparable to what Gazprom charges European customers, but the company will have to spend tens of billions of dollars on drilling and new pipelines to get the gas to China.

“基本价格看着突破性，”莫斯科奥顿投资银行的董事会成员伯纳德斯说。“对于俄罗斯来说是有利可图的，我们无法看到很多细节。”在此交易宣布后，加州股份股价下跌约2％，在过去一个月升高14％后，至少部分地预期了中国突破。

The agreement has undeniable strategic advantages for Russia, though. It ensures the country will be a key energy supplier for decades to come, and it should help reduce the nation’s dependence on Europe and provide a pivot toward Asia.

One private sector CEO backing up Likhachev’s enthusiasm for the new China opening was Maxim Sokov of EN+ Group, an electricity company controlled by Oleg Deripaska, billionaire CEO of aluminum giant UC Rusal and founder and principal owner of the mining and metals conglomerate Basic Element. Sokov accompanied Putin to Shanghai and came back with a deal of his own: a coal mining joint venture near Lake Baikal that, he told the conference, “will make it economical to send Russian coal to northern and western China.” He also envisioned extensive synergies between Eastern Russia’s rich hydropower resources and China’s rapidly industrializing interior, including direct export of electricity and hosting energy-intensive functions like “running data centers in Irkutsk Oblast.”

Energy officials played up Russia’s potential for continued dominance not only in gas but in oil, as well. The country holds the world’s largest reserves of shale oil, at 10 billion tons (some 73 billion barrels), according to the Energy Ministry. That compares with an estimated 8.5 billion tons in the U.S.

Executives from Russia’s big oil companies discussed prospects for a shale oil revolution in Russia that could mimic the北达科他州的Bakken Clowation生产爆炸。俄罗斯努力取代西伯利亚西部西伯利亚的Dwindling常规领域的努力将集中于现在，在西伯利亚东部的北极海洋货架和处女领土上。但页岩具有以下优点，即它可以靠近西西伯利亚的现有基础设施钻探。

Rosneft的埃克森·罗纳尔（Rosneft）Rosneft的法国钻井和发展董事埃里克·罗纳公司表示，国有旗舰店探索巴扎诺夫存款，被认为是世界上最大的页岩田地之一。他借此机会指出，即使俄罗斯石油公司的首席执行官Igor Sechin，伊戈尔·塞希州的首席执行官已由美国政府批准，埃克森已经向罗斯尼斯顿合作Ukraine。

但Liron也警告了对易于重复美国成功的期望。“美国没有我们拥有的同样的页岩，”他说。“我们可以找到甜油的位置可能更难以置信。”

卢邦海外总裁安德烈库萨夫州也指出，俄罗斯缺乏推动美国的页岩发展的经济基础设施。：小巧，灵活的野猫钻探公司和竞争激烈的油田服务部门。他说，美国钻牛可以预计将花费300万美元至350万美元探索一个新的井，但在俄罗斯，成本可以高达2000万美元的成本。改变数学只是俄罗斯经济未来迫在眉睫的众多挑战之一。