Former Goldman Sachs Head Henry Paulson Has Hope for China

在投资银行高盛投入32年后，在2006年至2009年担任美国财政部长，亨利（汉克）保尔森JR，而不是在2006年至2009年的情况下轻松。前高盛首席执行官席席芝加哥大学保尔森研究所，他是2011年成立的独立智库，推广美国关系。在他的职业生涯中，在他的职业生涯中曾处理过中国官员和商业领袖，并在该国的现代化上有一个独特的窗口。他对2012年担任共产党院长的习近平追求的改革的石板表达了谨慎乐观。

Paulson, 68, believes China must open its capital markets as much as possible. He argues that a bilateral investment treaty between the U.S. and China — talks restarted in February — is key because reformers will use it to allow foreign competition. Senior Writer Imogen Rose-Smith recently caught up with Paulson.

Why China?

Almost every important issue is easier to solve if the U.S. and China are working together. And these issues are much harder to solve if we are working at cross-purposes. I am focused on economic and environmental issues. China is going to be a big driver of those outcomes globally. It is very much in the U.S. interest to work on programs that enhance economic and environmental progress in China.

Is progress on the quality of the environment really possible for China?

美国和中国是能源最大的用户，最大的碳发射者，如果我们两个人在一起，我们将更好地解决我们在全球范围内的环境挑战的可能性。如果你在十年前向前期待着，我将在谈到不同的能源来源的所有东西 - 新兴的清洁技术和关闭脏制造和发电厂的时候dire as it is today, I wouldn’t have predicted it. Their efforts in this area have been blown away by growth. China needs to focus on investing in high-quality growth that is sustainable. What is another point of GDP worth if dirty air is killing people

Is China’s economic growth sustainable Is the country in a credit bubble?

The next eight to ten years are going to be crucial. The bad news is that China’s economic growth model has run out of steam. They need a model with more emphasis on domestic-led growth and less on growth created by investment and exports. They need to move to a system that is more reliant on markets than bureaucratic decision making when it comes to the economy. It’s a lot easier said than done, in a $9 trillion economy, to figure out how to change the model. The good news is you’ve got a leadership that understands the problem and is determined to deal with it.

In every economy, as long as you’ve got banks, you’re going to have excesses and credit bubbles and financial crises from time to time. The key is to keep excesses from building and avoid a big crisis that seriously harms the economy. China absolutely has bad debts, and that is a significant problem. But today the nation has the financial capacity and expertise to manage this problem. Bad debts are at the municipal level and with the state-owned enterprises. They need to fix the flaws in the system, or they will have a major crisis a few years from now. They need to transform how the banks are run, how the state-owned enterprises are run and how the government works with each of them. They need a new system of municipal finance that is not reliant on real estate sales.

Did the U.S. banking crisis set back financial reform in China?

It gave the antireformers a strong argument, but the facts are pretty clear today. Our financial system in the U.S. is not without problems, but if you look across the board it is the broadest, deepest, most efficient system in the world, and that is a strong competitive advantage. The Chinese leaders understand the problems with their own system. When I’m talking to them, I’m not hearing them say, “You guys had a financial crisis, so we don’t need to reform our system.”

你有多自信,中国将开放吗markets?

I am cautiously optimistic, but we shouldn’t underestimate the strength of vested interests that are opposing these reforms. It all comes down to competition. Will they let the private sector compete with state-owned enterprises on a level playing field in key industries Will they let foreign companies do so A key test will be how quickly they reform the financial system and let best-in-class global institutions play a greater role. These bank joint ventures haven’t been — and won’t be — successful. If you want world-class financial markets, you need world-class financial institutions.