什么是厌恶的新兴市场股票？

进入今年，我们对新兴市场股票（EME）持有有利的战术观。MSCI新兴市场指数（MSCI EM）在2011年以20％的价格表现了20％，主要是因为货币紧缩周期，在包括中国，巴西和印度在内的几个大型EM经济体中增长。随着拧紧过程具有跑道，并且在放置促进方面，我们预期所产生的生长重新升温，在有利的估值的背景下，产生EME优于表现。

这个故事似乎在1月份和2月初工作良好，EME以相对术语（图1）的分别评分大幅提升。然而，从那时起，EME与标准普尔500指数相比已经滑了滑了。到4月下旬，EME已放弃其相对增加。尽管过去几天，EME在2012年到目前为止，EME的速度基本上只能与美国股票一直保持速度。

图1: MSCI EM vs. S&P 500 (1 Jan 2010 = 1)

来源：彭博;截至2012年5月3日的数据

什么解释这种迟钝？在某种程度上，相对令人失望只是反映了今年美国股票的强劲收益。毕竟，MSCI EM已上升近12％的YTD，绝对术语的令人满意的增益。仍然，在风险资产的一般有利期间，人们仍然期望eme的β高于1。有几个因素似乎对EME的静音表现造成负责。其中一些可能徘徊，但是今年晚些时候可能会更加有利于这一重要因素：

1.中部和东部欧盟协会内疚rope. Logically, the euro area’s woes should be taking a toll on overall EME performance, given that the overall MSCI EM index contains a number of countries in that region. On closer examination, though, this does not explain much of this year’s disappointment. The entire EMEA region accounts for just 18 percent of MSCI EM, and the only two individual EMEA countries with greater than a 2 percent weighting in the index, South Africa and Russia, not only stand on the periphery of the region but also have not done too badly this year (Chart 2). The euro area probably does constitute a drag for EME but not a gale-force headwind.

2. EM central banks’ participation in the "currency wars." Several major EM central banks have been leaning aggressively against currency appreciation, given their fears that very easy G7 monetary policies are creating a flood of capital inflows that will damage their competitiveness. Brazil has been among the most vocal and active in this respect, and the Brazilian real has indeed weakened about 3.5 percent this year. EM Asian currencies, for their part, have broadly treaded water in 2012, mirroring the behavior of the Chinese renminbi, which has barely moved. Resistance to currency appreciation has dampened dollar-denominated returns on EME. Again, though, the effect looks somewhat marginal. EM currencies as a group have posted small gains against the dollar year-to-date (that is, MSCI EM in dollar terms has outperformed its local-currency equivalent). They simply have done less well than might have been expected considering their weakness in 2011.

3.特定国家的担忧。巴西脱颖而出，是一个引人注目的表现者，ytd增加了4％。Of course, currency depreciation accounts for some of the lag relative to the MSCI EM, but ongoing worries about the effect of public policy on company results (earlier concentrated in the oil sector but now more focused on the banks, given the government’s efforts to narrow net interest margins) have also played a role. Although India has performed roughly in line with overall EME this year, doubts about the policy framework and its influence on private investment spending have damaged sentiment there. Russia also faces an uncertain political climate, a major issue for an equity market dominated by state-influenced, -owned, or -regulated companies. This set of concerns, affecting three of the seven largest components of the MSCI EM, probably will not fade anytime soon, though it also appears unlikely to intensify.

4. China. Ongoing uncertainty about business-cycle conditions in China represents perhaps the largest contributor to this year’s relative EME disappointment. The China story simply has not moved forward as quickly as had been expected. While policy easing began at the end of 2011, it has proceeded in timid fashion thus far as the authorities confirm that inflation has slowed. With the housing sector still in retreat, economic growth dipped below 7 percent (in sequential and annualized terms) in the first quarter of this year. Doubts about Chinese growth have affected not only the local market but also much of the rest of EM Asia as well as commodity exporters in other regions.

我们继续期待中国增长的逐步改善。政策继续缓解，在幕后的更多行动（信贷指导方面）而不是通过高调措施（如储备要求削减）。当局最近肯定了他们有意支持增长。而最近的数据 - 3月每月活动指标和4月份购买经理指标 - 建议翻修。随着世界仍然看起来像一个复杂的地方和政策相对慢慢地移动，令人信服的翻修率可能不会发生，直到年中午。提高中国及其邻国的增长前景，以及对商品生产商的更多支持，可能会促进2012年下半年更新的EME表现。

图2：MSCI EM（％，年至今）内的个人国家绩效

Source: Bloomberg, JPMSI; data through May 3, 2012. The 11 largest MSCI EM components are shown.

意见和估计构成了我们的判断，并且恕不另行通知。过去的表现并不预示未来的结果。该材料并非旨在作为购买或销售任何金融工具的要约或招揽。J.P. Morgan资产管理是JPMORGAN Chase＆Co.及其附属公司的资产管理业务的品牌。