Economics & Strategy - Economics - Third Team

Mikihiro MatsuokaDeutsche Securities

Mikihiro Matsuoka of Deutsche Securities holds the No. 3 spot for a sixth straight year. “I know I can rely on his analysis because he doesn’t manipulate the data to support his ideas,” declares one portfolio manager. Matsuoka thinks one issue that will come to the fore this year is Japan’s balance of payments, noting that he’s “skeptical” of the widely held view that Japan’s current-account surplus will turn into a deficit in a few years. Such an event “would require five standard-deviation shocks on global growth, oil prices and the Japanese yen exchange rate — simultaneously,” he says. Another area of focus is whether real gross domestic product growth in the Group of Seven countries will be higher than their long-term interest rates; this phenomenon has occurred only four times in the past three decades, Matsuoka says, and each time it has led to a financial bubble.— Carolyn Koo

RUNNER(S)-UP
-Takuji AidaUBS
-Masayuki KichikawaBank of America Merrill Lynch