For an investment asset that has the rare ability to excite professional investors, ordinary people and even the childish readers of adventure stories, gold has put in a shockingly dull performance in recent months.
在1月份的最初新年的反弹之后，自2月初以来，一盎司黄金的价格刚刚刚刚达到1,600美元至1,800美元。COMEX黄金前期期货合约在下午美国于周四的交易价格为1,638.5美元 - 当天几乎不变。这是从去年的呐喊，当黄金突然到1,912美元的历史记录高度突然升起，只有在几周内跌破350美元，因为担心快速升值将价值推向不可持续的水平。
伦敦州瑞银的贵金属策略师，甚至渴望本周，黄金在“昏迷”中，宣传说“黄金价格行动已经变得陈旧”。
什么占金属最近拒绝落下或果断的拒绝？
Gold has conventionally been seen as a hedge against inflation or economic crises — and most of all, economic crises rooted in inflation. It was one of these — caused by the second oil crisis — that accounted for its abrupt rise in 1980 to a peak that has still, in real terms, never been equalled.
在20世纪90年代和20世纪90年代初发达国家的低通胀和发达国家缺乏经济灾难 - 以相对术语，至少 - 金的价格在基本上以名义术语保持平坦。实际上，它急剧下降。
A common explanation for the change in recent years from a stable price to a rapid rise has been the permanent air of crisis caused by the credit crunch. Moreover, although inflation has not run out of control in developed economies, quantitative easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve has kept alive the fear that it could.
最多这一点，这种解释符合黄金的价格行为。它的价值在2011年7月和2011年8月飙升，因为欧元区债务危机开始。The price fell sharply in early April, at the same time as the prospect diminished of a third round of quantitative easing in the U.S. However, hopes have not completely died that the Fed will resort to QE, and fears of another euro zone crisis have not been laid to rest. Faced with such an even balance of risks and possibilities, the gold market may simply be treading water while it makes up its mind which way to head.
However, neither expectations of inflation nor changes in the relative sense of crisis provide a completely convincing rationale for gold’s recent performance.
A better explanation may be that the fundamentals of the gold market are shifting, to the point where they are based as much on India and China as on concerns of catastrophe and of unbridled consumer price increases.
The gold price started to rise rapidly a few years before the credit crunch — beginning the ascent in the mid-2000s, as Indian gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached a peak of 10 percent according to some estimates, and China recorded double-digit percentage increases for several successive years.
这两个新工业庞然大物的收入增长极大地支持黄金需求。
印度是世界上最大的黄金买家，促使分析师分析峰值购买时期消费趋势 - 印度婚礼季节，从10月到二月运行。
However, the World Gold Council, the industry trade body, predicts that China will this year overtake India as the biggest consumer of the metal. Gold’s luster has been boosted by a lack of domestic alternatives: There are restrictions on property investment, and real interest rates are negative.
Trends in India, China and other emerging markets may provide an explanation not just for longer-term trends in gold, but for recent performance too. The Indian economy was hit hard by the late 2011 euro zone crisis, which damaged GDP growth. This depressed the rupee — curtailing Indian consumers’ ability to buy gold. With prospects so poor for the world’s largest gold buyer, it is hard for the metal to return to September’s record nominal high.
On the other hand, traders have noticed the existence of an increasingly firm floor as the price of gold falls nearer to $1,600. Many credit this to the appetite among emerging nations’ central banks, anxious to expand their gold reserves, for buying large quantities on dips. They purchased heavily in response to the price fall that ran from the end of February to early March, for example. Analysts say that the Chinese central bank, in particular, is likely to provide support to the gold market. Only 1.8 percent of its reserves are in the metal, according to the World Gold Council — but analysts say it is keen to increase this portion, largely to reduce dependence on its huge dollar reserves. Gold is still the only real global currency aside from the greenback — leaving China with little choice if it wants to diversify.
Some analysts see gold as a good investment play on India. Given the important role played in the gold market by the growing Chinese economy, it is not, perhaps, surprising that some hedge fund managers have started to argue that an investment in gold could also be a good play on China — particularly since many are wary of entering the unusually mercurial Chinese stock market. New cultural habits are reinforcing this argument: Many people are these days giving gold as a Chinese New Year present, rather than the traditional cash in an envelope.
黄金千年之后首先用作价值储存，它仍在找到新的利基。