对新兴市场的兴趣债务（EMD）在过去几年中飙升，投资者对该集团经济体的持续快速增长和稳固的财政指标。但哪种类型的EMD为机构投资者提供了最大意义？亚博赞助欧冠毕竟，EMD不是三个单独的资产课程：美元计价的政府债务，通常被称为“主权债务”;美元计价的EM公司债务;和当地货币政府债务。在过去十年左右，每个人都做得很好，产生相当高的回报并产生有吸引力的锐利比率。他们的曲目记录表明，这三种中的任何一个都可以在大多数投资者的投资组合中舒适地适应。然而，三个资产类别的特征有所不同，每个都可能适合特定的目标。EMD资产课程在地理成分或信用质量方面不等，而是在暴露于他们暗示的全球市场的类型中不等。购买当地货币债务意味着接触EM外汇（FX）趋势，而基于USD的资产 - 与所有未预防的传播产品一样 - 包括美国财政组成部分。 The two types of debt are likely to perform relatively well under different states of the world. When global growth is strong, EM FX will tend to appreciate, and Treasury yields will tend to rise. These factors favor local-currency debt. During less boomy periods, Treasury yields will likely decline and EM FX will remain stable or sell off, tilting the scales toward dollar-based assets. Indeed, between 2003 and 2007, when the first set of conditions applied, local-currency debt outperformed USD-denominated EMD. Between 2008 and 2011, when the second type of environment dominated, USD-based sovereign debt outperformed. Over a lengthy time horizon of, say, five years, local-currency debt seems likely to outperform again. Global growth will likely accelerate gradually in coming years after the disappointments of the early part of the recovery; EM FX is coming off a significant sell-off in 2011 and remains well below its pre-crisis peak; and the very low level of Treasury yields makes a rise over a five-year period more likely than a decline. Investors willing to add beta to their portfolios and contemplate long holding period might thus favor investments in local-currency EMD. The EM FX appreciation path, though, will not necessarily proceed smoothly, and any particular year could bring a sell-off. Moreover, the current global monetary policy atmosphere means that a Treasury sell-off may lie some distance own the road. Investors with a shorter horizon, and those less enthusiastic about adding beta to their portfolios, might thus favor USD-denominated sovereign debt. While USD-denominated EM corporate debt trailed the other two EMD categories in returns during both 2003-2007 and 2008-2011 (though it underperformed local-currency debt only very slightly during the latter period), it possesses two virtues that make it an interesting option as at least part of an EMD portfolio. First, it is the most “Asian” of the three EMD asset classes, providing more exposure to the fastest-growing part of the global economy and one in which many investors still have only modest holdings. Second, in contrast with sovereign debt, its spread over Treasuries currently stands wide to its medium-term average. Investors with a focus on value thus may find EM corporate more appealing than the two government-based EMD assets. The chart below presents the main characteristics of each asset class within the EMD category. In each case, we use the relevant JPMorgan index as a proxy for the underlying asset class. We chose the ones that we believe to be most used as benchmarks by asset managers: the EMBI Global Diversified (EMBIG) for dollar-based external debt; the CEMBI Broad Diversified (CEMBI) for EM corporates; and the GBI-EM Global Diversified (GBI-EM) for local-currency government debt. At the moment (using figures as of January 31, 2012), the GBIEM offers, by a slim margin, the highest yield among the three EMD asset classes. This has not always been the case, but the very low level of Treasury yields has dragged down the overall yield on the two spread product classes, even though spread levels are either in line with (EMBIG) or wider than (CEMBI) medium-term averages. Its higher yield comes despite a shorter duration and a marginally higher average credit rating than are the case for the USD-based indices. To summarize, each of the three EMD asset classes has delivered strong returns over time and deserves consideration. If the global economy grows strongly in coming years, local-currency government debt will likely outperform, thanks to its foreign-exchange component. Hard-currency sovereign debt, a lower-beta investment, is likely to outperform in a softer global growth environment. EM corporate debt, which is currently attractively valued, offers more direct exposure to EM Asia than the two government-debt EMD categories.
意见和估计构成了我们的判断，并且恕不另行通知。过去的表现并不预示未来的结果。该材料并非旨在作为购买或销售任何金融工具的要约或招揽。J.P. Morgan资产管理是JPMORGAN Chase＆Co.及其附属公司的资产管理业务的品牌。