美联储和欧洲央行为日本银行对日本的未来至关重要

Institutional investors in Tokyo’s cosmopolitan Otemachi financial district are these days showing as much interest in the pronouncements of central bankers in Frankfurt and New York as in the utterances from the nearby Bank of Japan (BoJ) — and possibly even more.

While investors around the western world wait with bated breath to see if the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are prepared to keep bolstering their economies with massive asset purchases or refinancing operations, the BoJ’s revelation that it was buying trillions of yen of extra assets failed on Friday to prevent a further fall in the stock market.

交易员对BOJ举措的反应的反应确认了日本市场的课程如何受到其他地方的事件所经受更多的人 - 特别是在欧元区 - 比越来越无能为力的央行。

这是由经济学家强调神经反应n to Friday’s disappointing numbers for Japan’s export-focused manufacturing sector — an unusually key part of the economy for Japan since underlying long-term growth in domestic demand is low. Government data showed that manufacturers planned to cut production by 4.1 percent in May, and April’s survey of manufacturing purchasing managers by Markit Economics showed a fall in export orders. “Tokyo woke up to a rather chilly rain this morning, and the set of data released this morning was no better,” said Takuji Okubo, Asia chief economist at Société Générale in Tokyo. “Judging by manufacturers’ production plans, they do not seem to have much hope for rising export demand.”

成功出口，日本制造商 - 统治该国的日经225股股指 - 需要弱日元。这使得其价格在国外更具竞争力，并通过提高从海外遣返的利润价值来提高其收益。

在Boj的情人节宣言之后的几周内，日元将通过加强其资产购买，以满足1％的新通胀目标，将更多的资金纳入经济。理论上，这种货币宽松应通过减少日元的价值来创造通货膨胀，因为货币数量的增加降低了其价值。较弱的货币通过提高进口货物的价格来提高通货膨胀。日元的尖锐折​​旧派遣了日经225，以出口商为主导，达到10,255的两年高。

展望促进潜在的通货紧缩，博士又采取行动：周五宣布，它正在增加其持续资产购买计划的规模，达到5万亿日元至70万亿日元（8640亿美元）。

日本最大的证券房子的经济学家Shuichi Obata表示，该举动表明BOJ采用了“日益升级的姿态”。在年底之前，他预测“多达两轮宽松”。

However, many analysts are skeptical that asset purchases will help exporters by reducing the value of the Japanese currency. Capital Economics, the independent macroeconomic consultancy, said in a Friday note, “Additional monetary easing alone is unlikely to prevent a renewed appreciation in the yen in the event of a further escalation of the crisis in the euro zone.” It added, “We continue to expect the yen to climb to 70 against the dollar by end-2012.”

任何减少日元价值的企图，都必须恢复出口商的财富，必须违背全球经济的逆风 - 特别是欧洲货币集团。这是因为日元仍然是经典的避险资产，其价值在全球经济动荡期间增加。回归欧元区的另一个完全成熟的危机，也将通过在其一些最大的国际市场中的情绪中削减对从日本进口的货物的需求 - 为制造业的股票提供进一步的打击。

The yen was at ¥80.4 to the dollar in U.S. afternoon trading on Friday — an appreciation of 0.7 percent on the day and considerably higher than its ¥84.1 low in late March, before Spain’s fiscal troubles pushed it back up by triggering renewed interest in safe havens. The fewer yen to the dollar, the higher the yen’s value.

即使一些分析师认为出口商的前景开始增长调光者，因为全球动荡和日元升值，一些发现日本国内经济的希望导致 - 过去二十年的经济瘫痪的罕见现象。建筑材料和基础设施制造商在2011年海啸和地震之后蓬勃发展的建筑支出。在下周发布的数字的超级星期五，官方数据显示，3月份新的就业机会增长1.6％ - 以劳动密集型建筑业的工人需求提升。

一些分析师认为，在日本经济中的这种临时复兴可能会造成良性势头，其中产量短期增加陷入长期增长。主要原因是由于重建支出，分析师预计2013年3月截至3月份截至2013年3月的年度的急剧上涨，这将增加可用于再投资经济的资源。

Yet the virtuous circle of higher earnings followed by higher business investment will eventually break down if Japanese consumers prove unwilling to spend. Friday’s news of a 1.2 percent March fall in retail sales does not suggest that Mrs. Watanabe — the archetypal Japanese shopper synonymous with John Q. Public — is ready to open her purse strings.

日经星期五下跌0.4％至9,521。