在经典著作《绿野仙踪》中，巫师规定所有进入翡翠城的人都要戴上绿色的眼镜。游客和市民被告知，这是为了保护他们免受“光明和荣耀”的伤害。但事实上，这个巫师已经失去了他的魔力，变成了一个平庸的江湖骗子。没有光明和荣耀，只有一座用石头和玻璃建造的普通城市。牛市是我们自己创造的翡翠城。在牛市中，投资者和媒体必须戴上绿色眼镜。突然间，所有的经济新闻和基本事实都变成了绿色和闪亮的——没有坏消息，只有些许的好消息。熊市的要求则有所不同:每个人都要戴上红色眼镜。翡翠城已经不复存在了。现在，所有的新闻都以苏维埃克林姆林宫红色的三种色调呈现:糟糕、丑陋和彻头彻尾的毁灭性。 This happens because we are human. The pressure of rising prices in bull markets or falling prices in bear markets leads us to engage in backward analysis. Instead of first analyzing the events and only then forming an opinion, we look at the market reaction to the news and let it dictate what we should think. In the long run, stock prices follow fundamentals like cash flow and earnings growth. In the short run — well, this old cowboy saying tells it all: “Nobody but cattle know why they stampede, and they ain’t talking.” The danger of wearing glasses determined by the market is that reality will not be suspended forever, no matter the tint of your shades. By following the “color decree,” you are effectively taking advice from the market on how to analyze, what to pay attention to and what to buy or sell. This is the sure road to buy-high-sell-low despair. The market is the worst giver of advice — it’s prone to tell you what you should have done, not what you should do. Before the market mandated green glasses in October, investors were wearing blood-red shades. They were dreading significant risks threatening the global economy. Let’s quickly run through them and see if much has changed. European recession and debt crisis: Greece went through an orderly default, the European Central Bank pumped liquidity into the system, and European bond yields declined. But a recession precipitated by governmental austerity is not off the table, and the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) still have to figure out how they will deal with their debt and lack of economic competitiveness. Unraveling of the Chinese overcapacity bubble and potential hard landing: The Chinese government has guided growth down to 7.5 percent, but this may prove to be wishful thinking on its part. Cement and steel production has fallen, car sales are off, and Chinese manufacturing has contracted sharply for five months in a row. Middle East tensions: An attack by Israel or the U.S. on Iran’s nuclear facilities would lead to a jump in oil prices and instability in the region. With the latest rhetoric from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Obama, this risk has greatly increased. Japanese debt bubble: Japan is still the most indebted nation in the developed world and pays the lowest yields on its debt. Its population has aged six months since October and is that much closer to the tipping point where Japan’s savings rate turns negative and internal demand for its debt drops off a cliff. Disastrously higher interest rates, rising inflation and other fun stuff are sure to follow. U.S. housing market: There are a lot of positive signals coming from this dark corner of the economy, but the question still remains: Will the housing market recover if interest rates inch higher from their all-time lows? That’s unlikely, because housing is too addicted to low interest rates. As a result, the recovery will have a lot of fits and starts. U.S. corporate profit margins: They’ve hit record highs and risk declining toward their rightful place, leading to a drop in earnings. The U.S. needs robust economic growth for the margin problem to go away. The economy has shown improvement, but its rate of growth is unlikely to offer much excitement considering all the factors I’ve mentioned above. U.S. budget deficit: The U.S. still has a tremendous hole in its budget, and nothing has been done to fix it. So far, the Super Committee, which was created to come up with a legislative solution, has not lived up to its name.
“颜色法令”投资的危险是您开始忽略否定的否定和积极措施，比在绿色阶段期间的风险更大，只关注红阶段期间的风险。所以如果你发现最近的市场反弹你穿着绿色眼镜，那么把它们脱落并再看一下，因为全球经济仍面临大量的逆风。•
维塔利Katsenelson (vk@imausa.com）在丹佛的投资管理伙伴和侧向市场小书的作者中是CIO。