这些天投资可能会感到有点像决定两个（或更多）邪恶的较小者。欧洲债务危机拖累，随着无数的未解决问题，而美国继续奋斗，以夯实失业率并延长经济。除了现在 - 这是中国，印度和俄罗斯这样新兴市场的起泡增长的日子。这些经济体仍在扩大，但速度较慢比近年来更慢。
进入前沿市场，这吸引了买卖双方公司的兴趣，因为投资者在寻找其他地方找不到的机会。”花旗（Citi）新兴和前沿市场股票策略师安德鲁•豪厄尔（Andrew Howell）解释说：“这些地方的市场非常不发达。”这些地方有着巨大的潜在增长，但政治、社会和经济仍存在很大的不确定性，因此这些人都能取得成功还远远不是一件确定的事情。但如果他们成功了，就有巨大的好处。”
有没有过。例如，斯里兰卡股市在截至今年4月的三年时间里暴涨了近188%，超过标准普尔500指数150个百分点。罗马尼亚的失业率接近80%。然而，总体而言，前沿市场在此期间仅上涨了15.1%，这意味着选择正确的市场以及这些市场中正确的股票至关重要。
Howell published a report in November, “Call of the Frontier: The Search for a New Generation of Emerging Markets,” to help investors make the right choices. He identified 15 countries — Argentina, Bangladesh, Kenya, Mongolia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Romania, Sri Lanka, Ukraine and Vietnam, among others — that he believes have “the potential to generate the kind of returns for equity investors over the coming decades that the emerging markets themselves have produced over the past quarter-century.” (Neither MSCI nor S&P includes Mongolia in its frontier markets index, although many analysts and investors view the country as comparable to those economies. Its stock market catapulted 309.3 percent in the three years through April.)
| 12个月领导1 | ||||||
| 军衔 | 坚定的 | 一年 CHANGE2 |
||||
| 1 | 突尼斯 | 14.55% |
||||
2演出以当地货币进行。孟加拉国指数（2009年11月发布）不符合三年排名的条件。
分析师的覆盖面和前沿市场的表现一样大。总部位于伦敦的豪厄尔估计，平均每只前沿市场股票有4.7条建议，而发达市场的建议为16.4条，新兴市场的建议为14条。”他说：“在几乎所有的前沿市场，你都会在某个地方找到一个经纪人来负责。”很难说经纪人的观点是否有效或成熟。”
鉴于销售方面xinyabo体育app 质量和数量的变化，基金管理人员经常乘坐第一手广告的道路。纽约·斯坦德·斯坦利·斯坦德8500万美元的摩根士丹利投资管理前沿新兴市场基金 - 一部分超过3.7亿美元的较大池，该公司经营的前沿市场资产 - 通常每月需要两周的旅行。
奥利弗·贝尔负责监督T. Rowe Price Associates'3亿美元的非洲和中东基金，每月至少一周在路上。“你真的需要进入管理层并找出他们计划做的事情，然后比较他们最后一次告诉你的东西，”伦敦的金钱经理说。“最终，这是在这些市场中做得好的最好的管理公司。由于宏观经济的波动，您倾向于得到，您需要找到知道如何骑湍流时间并受益于美好时光的管理。“
花旗（Citi）的豪厄尔（Howell）估计，全球机构基金经理在前沿市场基金上的投资额为120亿美元，而且这个数字还会上升。”你将看到更多的泛前沿市场基金推出，”他宣称。
Andrew Brudenell, head of frontier markets equity strategy and senior portfolio manager of HSBC Global Asset Management’s $150 million GIF Frontier Markets Fund, agrees. “We’re seeing people who spent time looking at the asset class in 2007 and 2008, didn’t get in and then didn’t look at the space until 2009 because perhaps there was easier money to be made in emerging markets — which they kind of knew better and for which they didn’t need to do as much due diligence,” observes Brudenell, who works out of London. “But once those rebounded quite strongly in 2009 and seemed to already have done their thing in a fairly short space of time, we began to see a lot more people asking about frontier markets.”
As investor interest is rising, so is the level of sell-side research. About 18 months ago “we took a view that frontier markets were underresearched and thought we would roll out coverage,” says Rhys Summerton, Citi’s London-based head of research for Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa. The firm has been selective, emphasizing Argentina, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa.
Russia’s Renaissance Capital is also boosting coverage of the latter region, according to David Nangle, Moscow-based head of research. From its office in Lagos, “you see Standard Bank of South Africa around the corner, but you don’t see Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs there yet,” he says. “The day will come, obviously, but it’s not the right time.”
Part of the reason, according to T. Rowe Price’s Bell, is that “the return for the sell side isn’t high at the moment.” Even CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, known for its strong network in markets across Asia, doesn’t cover frontier stocks yet, although its analysts do report on such Hong Kong–listed offerings as Mongolian Mining Corp. and SouthGobi Resources, a Vancouver, Canada–based company that operates mines in Mongolia.
| 三年领导人1 | ||||||
| 军衔 | 坚定的 | 一年 CHANGE2 |
||||
| 1 | 斯里兰卡 | 187.72% |
||||
2演出以当地货币进行。孟加拉国指数（2009年11月发布）不符合三年排名的条件。
总部位于香港的亚洲xinyabo体育app 主管阿马尔•吉尔（Amar Gill）表示：“如果我们开设了一家办事处，能够直接执行交易，我们将在这些市场启动公司xinyabo体育app 。”。上个月底，该公司与蒙古最大的经纪公司BDSec达成协议，向外国机构投资者提供进入该市场的渠道，从而迈出了实现这一目标的第一步。亚博赞助欧冠
In many areas local firms can fill the coverage gap. Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia–based Frontier Securities publishes thematic reports, rather than company-specific research, although its five analysts do cover five foreign-listed companies and one that is traded on the Mongolian Stock Exchange. “Mongolian companies are still at an early stage, and we only want to write about companies where market cap and liquidity are picking up, and the valuation is good,” explains CEO Masa Igata, who launched the firm in 2007. “At this moment it’s very difficult for us to be compensated with Mongolian domestic companies.”
胡志明市证券公司（Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp.）的xinyabo体育app 主管Fiachra Mac Cana说，除了新加坡的Maybank Kim Eng Securities外，在越南证券交易所上市的公司只有本地经纪商。他的公司雇用了10名行业分析师和2名宏观分析师，跟踪60家越南公司，尽管公司的雷达上还有20到30个。
在此类市场中获取数据可能是一项挑战。”“如果我是巴克莱银行，那么英国、英国银行市场和巴克莱本身就有很多信息可以让你自己分析死亡，”RenCap的Nangle说，他也是金融服务分析家。如果你选择像Ita这样的新兴市场银行ú 在巴西，政治和银行业的透明度更高，“尽管披露和治理标准正在提高。然而，他补充道：“如果你开始报道肯尼亚的股票银行，信息就会少得多。”。
Covering frontier companies is “real research — on the ground, spending time interviewing managements, looking at trends — as opposed to sitting in a dark room with statistics,” Nangle declares. “You need to be a certain type of analyst to succeed in these markets. You need to be flexible. You need to get your laptop out in an airport and handle the lack of electricity, management not turning up and bad information — and make assumptions around that and come to some kind of conclusion.”
Lack of liquidity is also a concern. Mac Cana confirms that institutional investors have yet to go to Vietnam in droves. “There’s really only a handful of stocks that somebody who wants to buy $20 million to $30 million in a single position can actually buy at the moment,” he says. “It is a challenge for the mainstream pension funds.”
一些基金经理已经制定了自己的解决方案。香港避风港投资管理公司（Port Shelter Investment Management）创始人兼首席执行官理查德•哈里斯（Richard Harris）去年8月成立了一只1000万美元的基金，投资于蒙古公司的海外上市。他解释说，“在我看来，蒙古是投资边境市场的黄金场景——你有流动性，你也有增长，而边境市场通常有增长，但没有流动性。”
它们也与其他经济体的相关性很少，这在当前的全球经济环境中是一个大的加法。“他们通常只是专注于他们所在的国内市场，所以他们有点环绕，”汇丰的布鲁登尔说。“希腊的银行业问题将影响西班牙，法国，U.K.和美国，但它不会影响尼日利亚银行系统或卡塔尔银行系统。如果Qatari银行系统中存在问题，它只会影响卡塔尔。“
他说，他说，边境市场不应被认为是新兴市场的延伸。“在发达的市场中产生真正的alpha是非常困难的，在新兴市场中产生真正的alpha变得越来越难以，”布鲁登尔刺客。“在边境市场中，如果您进行xinyabo体育app ，有很多定价效率低下，并且有很多机会。有缺乏信息和不成熟的投资者，所以有一个真正的机会生成alpha。“•