Euro zone pension funds find themselves in an acute quandary. The inclement economic atmosphere in the euro zone threatens to turn into a tempest, despite the rather murky and incomplete progress towards a solution in last week’s EU summit. But the funds must nonetheless find a safe harbor within the boundaries of the currency union, to avoid the risk that billions of euros worth of assets held in another currency will not match billions of euros worth of future liabilities. Where can they go?
只要欧元区外围国家的经济增长保持低位或负增长，它们的主权债务就依然不安全。在这种背景下，西班牙10年期国债收益率在6月份达到了欧元时代的高点，高于7%，原因是人们担心，为减少赤字而实施的严厉预算措施实际上会通过破坏经济复苏而增加赤字。基于相似的推理，类似的问号困扰着意大利、葡萄牙和希腊的债务市场。尽管上周五外围国家的收益率有所下降，但按照目前低通胀时代的标准来看，它们仍处于极高水平。
许多投资者对此的反应是将资金转入所谓的欧元区核心国家的政府债券，这些国家的债务由于可管理的债务余额和年度赤字而被认为相对安全。
However, analysts fear that the low yields of Dutch, Finnish, and above all, German bonds — the most liquid by far among the core countries — are based to a dangerous degree on the unattractiveness of the alternatives in the periphery rather than any unbounded sense of safety in the core bonds themselves.
国际货币基金组织（imf）的数据显示，德国今年的债务总量可能占国内生产总值（GDP）的78.9%，而在2007年信贷紧缩前夕，这一比例仅为65.2%。然而，10年期国债的收益率接近历史低点。欧洲股市周五收盘时为1.58%，而2007年最后一天为4.32%。许多投资者认为，德国和意大利10年期息差的扩大是站不住脚的，因为决策者提出的加强泛欧元区救助基金和银行业整合的建议表明，财政体系可能变得更加相互依存。上周五，德国和意大利的10年期息差为422个基点，而一年前只有196个基点，2007年12月只有31个基点。
因此，一些观察家表示，养老基金在投资这种低收益债券时正冒着风险，但在可能的收益方面，却没有相应的回报。即使市场对德国国债的信心依然强劲，但分析师认为，由于收益率已经很低，德国国债价格进一步大幅上涨的可能性不大。
解决这一低收益问题的一个可能办法是，将资金投向那些既不属于核心国家，也不属于陷入困境的外围国家的主权债券市场。其中包括法国（周五10年期国债收益率为2.69%）和奥地利（2.43%）。
However, the difficulty that analysts face in coining a term for these countries, which stand outside both core and periphery, reflects more than just a semantic problem. French and Austrian yields are currently both low, but fears about the sustainability of their government’s debt burdens, and their banks’ exposure to peripheral euro zone bonds and loans, pushed down their prices sharply during crisis moments last year. Pension funds seeking safety fear the same might happen again.
Another alternative for pension funds is euro zone equities, which now look attractive when measured by the earnings yield — the inverse of the price to earnings (P/E) ratio. Spanish equities are trading on a P/E of around 10, with the safer German market at about 11. Both are below their long-term averages.
但投资者基于欧元区以外,re not forced by their liabilities to show any enthusiasm for investing in euro zone assets, sold a hefty €19 billion ($25 billion) of euro zone equities in April, according to the European Central Bank. The implication — that anyone who has a choice about where they invest is not choosing the euro zone — is making pension funds in the currency union think twice. Many investors are wary of devoting money to such "risk assets" at a time when survey data suggest the euro zone economy may once more be shrinking, putting the screws on corporate earnings.
摩根大通资产管理公司（J.P.Morgan Asset Management）驻伦敦的全球策略师丹•莫里斯（Dan Morris）对大量投资股票等欧元区风险资产表示怀疑，因为人们担心欧元区的经济。在这种环境下，欧元区股票价格可能会挣扎。他的解决方案是：“我们建议关注那些股息高和/或不断上升的公司。”
这种追求股息收益率而非收益率的策略非常符合养老基金日益增长的趋势，即通过寻求稳定的现金流来更紧密地匹配其年收入和负债。汇丰银行（HSBC）驻伦敦策略师彼得•沙利文（petersullivan）也支持寻找高收入欧洲股市的方法，但有一个严重的警告。
Sullivan指出，尽管低利率理论上应该会增加欧洲收益率股票（股息相对较高的股票）的相对吸引力，但自2009年以来，这一资产类别的表现并没有超过整个欧洲股票。然而，这是因为超高收益率（其收益率反映了其风险收益状况）表现不佳。他把投资机会放在所谓的marzipan层：那些股息收益率在4.5%到8%之间的股票。
汇丰银行给他们起的绰号来自于一种含糖的糖果层，这种糖果层位于众多欧元区核心和外围国家蛋糕的表面之下。至少，即使共同发行债券（这可能会大幅提升风险资产）还没有实现，共同的爱好也会使欧元区团结起来。