根据一项密切关注的调查,欧元区经济正在近三年的速度下降近三年,增加了欧洲央行(欧洲央行)的压力,以乘坐陷入困境的呼吸汇率抵押俱乐部的呼吸汇率。
Marit Markit经济学在星期四发布的MARKIT经济学调查,混淆的期望通过表示持续的输出落在5月加速。在同一天,德国的商业情绪的着名IFO指数 - 直到现在欧元区经济忧郁中的一个亮点 - 表现出剧烈的秋季。
“The broad-based weakness points to a weaker-than-anticipated growth in the second quarter and strengthens our call for an ECB rate cut in the coming months,” said Violante di Canossa, a European economist at Credit Suisse in London. “With the Greek elections scheduled for June 17, it is difficult to see how the surveys can improve.”
对经济条件的变化非常敏感的制造业正在迅速恶化:该部门的调查采购管理人员的指数(PMI)降至45.0。任何数字低于50表示收缩,45表示深度下降。包括私营部门服务的综合指数也下跌0.8点至45.9点35个月。根据Markit的说法,4月和5月份在国内生产总值(GDP)中,调查指向0.5%的幻灯片。
至关重要的是,德国的病症恶化,其促使制造业迄今为止突然展示了货币联盟的整体表现。德国PMI指数从50.5到49.6降至49.6 - 从增长转向下降。德国情绪的IFO指数跌至3点至106.9,自8月以来的最大月份幻灯片。
Anecdotal evidence suggests that across the euro zone, businesses and consumers have become more reluctant to spend because of the uncertainty created by Greece’s political confusion. Analysts began talking for the first time of the Hellenic Republic’s “probable” departure from the currency union — shifting up a gear from previous talk of “possible” — after the Greek government, which had adhered to the terms of the EU-IMF bailout, lost power in the May general election. With no party able to form a government, a second election is due next month.
希腊出口从欧元区出口的直接影响将是小型经济学家估计希腊进口的萧条,如果其经济和货币崩溃,任何国家的GDP都不超过0.2个百分点。然而,更担心的是,希腊出口将触发银行在其他外围欧元区经济体中运行,例如意大利和西班牙,这将被视为下一个最有可能候选集团并以新货币重新调整他们的银行存款的候选人。
周四的人数已经强化了许多分析师之间的信念,即欧洲央行将降低其基准再融资率,其中1%以上,在联邦储备和英格兰银行的指控中大大。经济学家批评了欧洲央行,以缓慢缓慢,以缓解借贷成本。通过减少欧元的价值,削减可能会通过增加贷款的胃口来提高经济。
“我们认为伦敦野蛮人的欧洲经济学家Jens Sondergaard表示,在6月份会议上削减了一个令人信服的论据 - 欧洲经济学家Jens Sondergaard表示 - 引用周四的另一个欧元区放缓的证据。“但由于欧洲央行的反应而不是先发制人的历史,我们现在坚持我们目前的呼吁在6月的会议上没有改变,然后在7月份削减了50亿元率。”
However, it takes two to tango for rate reductions to have any effect. The ECB’s latest quarterly survey of bank lending, published in April, shows a sharp fall in demand for loans among companies and households — including a vertiginous 43 percent decline in demand for housing loans in the first quarter of this year. The euro zone’s uncertain economic and political situation has, think analysts, left companies and ordinary people reluctant to take on the long-term commitment of a loan.
但是,在PMI调查最近几个月的情况下,有潜在的舒适性,有时候会比随后的官方数字迷漫。Although the survey shows a fall in output in eight of the past nine months, figures for euro zone GDP growth from Eurostat, the EU’s statistics office, suggest a decline only in the fourth quarter of last year — with output stable in the first quarter of this year. The two sets of figures cover slightly different spheres, since the PMI survey does not include the extraction of natural resources, agriculture, and most importantly government services.
However, with fiscal austerity continuing, government spending will not boost European economies as it has during previous downturns, when politicians allowed deficits to widen to forestall a vicious circle of falling demand and higher unemployment. That is true, at least, unless the new French socialist president François Hollande and other pro-growth leaders cut through the present deadlock to unleash more aggressive pan-European expenditure.
自2010年7月对贫困调查新闻以来,欧元沉沦于其最低水平,在欧洲下午结束时恢复到贸易的贸易点数为1.26美元 - 为本周的鞭子全球交易。