中国推进人民币自由兑换计划

中国人民银行扩大人民币交易区间的决定，不仅对中国的货币政策，而且对从香港、加拿大到新西兰的外汇市场，都可能产生深远的影响。4月12日，中国人民银行宣布将扩大人民币汇率浮动区间，允许人民币在中间价上下浮动1%，而此前的浮动区间为上下0.5%。这是人们期待已久的举措。苏格兰皇家银行集团(Royal Bank of Scotland Group)驻新加坡的亚洲外汇策略主管吴敬轩(Woon Khien Chia)表示:“就人民币的全面自由化而言，中国央行的举措具有长期意义。”中国预计，中国的下一步将是让国际货币基金组织(imf)将人民币纳入特别提款权(sdr)。特别提款权是一种储备货币篮子，每五年进行一次再平衡。IMF将在2015年进行下一次特别提款权再平衡。他说，如果把人民币加入这一组合，就可以建立针对欧元、英镑、美元和日元等一篮子货币的多头头寸。短期而言，扩大交易区间意味着交易员不能再指望人民币一定会走上升之路。自2005年北京开始允许人民币升值以来，人民币兑美元汇率已经上涨了30%多一点，但自今年年初以来，人民币兑美元汇率基本持平。过去几年中国经常账户盈余的缩小也缓解了人民币升值的压力。渣打银行(Standard Chartered)驻新加坡的全球外汇研究主管卡勒姆•亨德森(Callum Henderson)表示:“如果你看一下人民币汇率的图表，就会发现它基本上是直线上升的，而现在汇率波动区间的扩大向市场表明，‘结束了’。” “The new framework is two-way variability. The dollar-renminbi rate will increasingly react to global market forces, and sometimes it may go up, and sometimes it will go down.” One implication of this change is that China wants to slow down capital inflows, says David Woo, head of global rates and currency research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York. If that happens, China will be converting fewer dollars into other Group of Ten currencies as it rebalances its currency reserves, Woo explains. “For every dollar they’re buying against the renminbi, they have to convert a certain portion of those dollars into euros, pounds sterling, the Canadian dollar and other currencies,” he says. “The most important development is that we’re going to see a slowdown in capital inflows into China, and that is actually supportive for the dollar against all these other currencies.” Another side effect, according to Standard Chartered’s Henderson, is that because the renminbi can go down as well as appreciate in the widened trading band, Chinese companies may face pressure to increase hedging of their foreign currency positions. “The belief that the renminbi was a one-way bet suggested that Chinese corporates shouldn’t hedge at all,” he says. “Now, with the dollar-renminbi seeing more two-way variability, albeit to a limited extent, there is a greater incentive for corporates to be more active in terms of hedging.” Given Chinese companies’ vast trading volume, even small changes in hedging behavior can dramatically impact the U.S. dollar–renminbi interbank market, Henderson says. Exporters may sell less of their foreign exchange receipts, and importers may buy dollars instead of borrowing them, he adds, because the renminbi is less likely to appreciate substantially. To the extent that demand for dollars is now more in balance, market forces rather than government fiat will probably determine the onshore renminbi market, Henderson notes. That idea was underlined in early May when the People’s Daily, China’s official newspaper, published an article stating that “on the basis of value, and balanced supply and demand, the renminbi exchange rate is basically at a reasonable equilibrium.” Although Washington still insists that the renminbi is undervalued against the dollar, most analysts see its rise slowing compared with the pace of recent years. Standard Chartered calls for the renminbi to climb some 1.5 percent, to a rate of 6.21 to the dollar, by the end of 2012 from 6.30 last month. RBS expects a 3 percent appreciation for the year, but it adds that this rise depends more on the dollar’s strength against other currencies than on Chinese government policy.

美银美林的Woo认为，扩大交易区间将使离岸人民币升值，幅度超过规模大得多的无本金交割远期市场。外汇交易员称离岸人民币为CNH。他表示，离岸人民币一直在以相对在岸人民币略有折扣的价格出售，但现在这种情况可能会改变。“中国人希望推动人民币作为离岸货币的使用，最终人民币和人民币将趋同。“••