在E.U.and U.S., Monetary Policy Is Limited

全球全球金融危机的初步冲击全球迫使中央银行在2008年采取戏剧性行动，当然，高度高度的货币住宿是我们经济和投资景观的一部分。为了打击通缩压力和天真地生长经济，世界上最大的中央银行一直在努力将其资产负债表赶到欧元区蔓延，并补充抑郁症的信贷创造水平导致的资金缓慢速度（见图1）。这种余额表扩展的程度已经非凡，今天主要的央行资产负债表几乎占全球股票市场资本的30％，从2008年的接近达到12％。中央银行将继续尝试执行货币政策刺激增长，避免通货紧缩风险并保持低实际利率，正如我们上周从欧洲央行（欧洲央行）看到的那样，但行动时机更加开放的问题，这是其对实体经济的最终影响。

图1：中央银行资产负债表扩展继续趋押（$ Trillions）

Source: Deutsche Bank

我们预计欧洲央行将争取以保护欧元，因此看看上周宣布的欧洲央行总统马里奥·德拉基宣布的侵略动作并不奇怪，旨在促进周边国家的再融资能力。显然，以合理的速度丧失资本的资本丧失一直是将欧元区成员迫使救助计划的中央因素，避免或减轻这种情况与大型经济态度至关重要。金钱的速度一直在欧洲培训，因为它已经在美国，所以欧洲央行对欧洲央行进行积极使用它的资产负债表，直到货币速度拾取和/或直到通货膨胀率走高。To recap the details of the plan: Beyond maintaining its benchmark interest rate at 0.75 percent (and keeping deposit and marginal lending rates stable), the ECB’s Governing Council announced the formation of a new sovereign debt purchase program (Outright Monetary Transactions, or OTM) and it further relaxed its collateral rules.

具体而言，债券购买方案将重点关注1年的屈服曲线，并将采购将被消毒，这是一种避免在道路上避免任何过度通货膨胀的成果。OTM没有预定的规模，并且努力缓解私人市场参与者的疑虑，其持有人不会成为私人债权人的高级，而是将成为Pari Passu。最后，将对参与者国家施加一定程度的条件，以帮助实现更大程度的财政预算纪律。With regard to ECB collateral rule changes, we have already quipped in the past that the ECB was rapidly approaching the point when it might announce that “a used bus ticket isn’t eligible for repo,” in an effort to maintain some standards, but in all seriousness, the rules governing the collateral the central bank will accept have become remarkably lax. For instance, the ECB has effectively suspended the minimum credit rating requirement for many types of collateral. Moreover, the central bank will also now accept non-euro denominated debt securities as collateral, all in the attempt to ensure that collateral shortages are mitigated in the euro zone banking system.

最后,也许我们可以开始看到一个逆转(or at least a slowdown) in the flows of money that have dramatically shifted capital to the euro zone core from the peripheral countries. This eventuality, should it occur, might go some distance toward restoring confidence in the region’s stability, thereby bringing private capital flows back in a meaningful way. The key for policy makers in ensuring that market access remains (at viable interest rate levels) for the majority of the regions’ nonprogram countries (since Greece, Portugal and Ireland are already limited in market access) is first stabilizing and then restoring a high degree of market confidence. The maintenance of confidence, in all forms of investing, is perhaps the dominant, if sometimes underappreciated, component of a credit-based capitalist system. Indeed, the origins of the word “credit” are to be found in the Latin credere, meaning “to believe or to trust,” and these characteristics undergird the activities of lending and borrowing now as much as ever.

Turning briefly to the United States, we still believe that quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve is highly likely to be implemented, despite our view that the U.S. economy is stabilizing and is not likely to fall into recession. There are several reasons for this belief, but a central pillar to the thesis is the fact that the Fed isn’t anywhere close to achieving its mandate of healthy labor markets. The unemployment rate remains elevated, and the employment-to-population ratio has flatlined at an extraordinarily low level. Additionally, we have so far not seen any definitive relationship between U.S. money printing and domestic inflation, although we did make the case last year that QE had influenced inflationary outcomes abroad, which can then result in some imported inflation. Further, as bank lending and credit creation is slowly improving in the U.S., there is a considerable incentive for the Fed to maintain monetary accommodation to facilitate this recovery, as well as to incentivize the corporate sector to increase capital expenditures as economic uncertainty abates.

我们将看看伯南克董事长德尔奇先生本周，如果美联储确实举动，我们将观看看看采取的步骤的大胆程度。我们认为，美联储仍然拥有相当多的空间来利用更具侵略性的通信作为其货币政策方法的一部分，我们不会惊讶地看到FOMC明确介绍了更加开放的定量宽松定量宽松形式的想法购买金额和时间。此外，他们可以考虑设置增长或就业触发器，这些触发器会为如何实施QE提供可预测性。自信的货币政策正在大西洋双方购买时间，但此时我们需要更加注重抑制更快增长的结构因素。

里克里耶尔is BlackRock’s chief investment officer of Fixed Income, Fundamental Portfolios.

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