NOTHING REFLECTS BANKING'S CHANGE IN FORTUNES as dramatically as the volte-face by Sanford Weill. The former CEO and chairman of Citigroup, who almost single-handedly tore down the Glass-Steagall Act that had separated investment and commercial banking in the U.S. since the Great Depression, came out this summer and called for the breakup of big universal banks to split retail and investment banking. His premise is that investment banks are inherently risky, engaging in activities from which risk-averse retail depositors need protection. If even an insider who made a fortune from the industry is turning against it, bankers must wonder how they can fight off more-hostile activists, regulators and politicians who all want to tame the increasingly unpopular banking beast.
A modern-day Glass-Steagall remains a long shot, but Weill’s conversion nevertheless betokens a sea change in the prospects of an industry that defined a generation of debt-charged capitalism. Five years after the outbreak of the financial crisis, investments banks are facing a battery of profit-slashing structural changes, including sharply higher capital requirements under the Basel III Accord, a raft of new U.S. regulatory restrictions in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act and a proposal from the U.K’s Independent Commission on Banking for new barriers between retail and investment banking.
约束可能不会阻止那里。最近一系列丑闻和误导 - 包括银行操纵基准伦敦银行间机票的速度，余额为酒吧和汇丰控股等银行破坏的制裁，并由JPMORGAN Chase＆以下损失大规模信用对冲损失。Co. - 引发了新鲜的愤怒。U.K. Prime.
Minister David Cameron ordered a parliamentary inquiry into professional standards in the banking industry following the Libor scandal; a European Union expert group led by Bank of Finland governor Erkki Liikanen is considering possible structural changes to the industry; and Thomas Hoenig, vice chairman of the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., has called for tough new restrictions on banks’ securities activities.
These days, few investment bankers hold out hope of returning to a favorable climate of light-touch regulation and soaring growth. Instead, banks will have to accept a diminished role, with business models designed for a less-leveraged and less-profitable environment.
“建议的规定s will accelerate the return of banking to its core activities — financing, intermediation of risk and advice,” says Suneel Kamlani, the Stamford, Connecticut–based Deputy CEO of Royal Bank of Scotland’s Markets & International Banking business and a former COO of UBS Investment Bank. What that means for companies’ ability to raise capital — and with it, the larger economy — is difficult to gauge at this point, but some experts say it’s likely to raise corporate financing costs.
只有五年前，华尔街投资银行在他们的天顶。根据，全球投资银行收入达到2007年的纪录额为3100亿欧元（3870亿美元）Roland Berger战略顾问的研究。该行业培养了精英文化，支付了巨大的工资，以引诱最毕业生，并保持亚慱体育app怎么下载与政治权力走廊的密切联系。最成功的投资银行高盛·萨克斯在2007年制定了116亿美元的历史性利润，吹嘘股权返回32％。这一年度，它的员工平均每人超过660,000美元，并获得了6850万美元的现金和股票 - 任何华尔街首席执行官的记录 - 董事长兼首席执行官Lloyd Blankfein。根据美国劳工统计局的统计，这是一年的时间，平均外科医生每年获得191,410美元，普通律师收购了118,280美元。
高盛前任首席执行官亨利保尔森Jr.于2006年7月成为美国财政部长。据届年，JPMORGAN聘请了前U.K.总理托尼布莱尔作为顾问，而他的儿子Euan加入摩根斯坦利作为分析师。投资银行似乎代表了私营部门的峰会，提供了最闪闪发光的奖品和声望。然后来到雷曼兄弟控股和AIG的崩溃，美国银行仓促婚姻和美林·林奇的大部分美国银行业的救助队伍，欧洲大部分大部分资产救济方案和类似的救助人员。
Some bankers acknowledge the industry has only itself to blame for its predicament. “It’s fair to say the investment banking industry lost sight of its core values,” says Colm Kelleher, co-president of Institutional Securities at Morgan Stanley in London and its head of Europe and Asia. “Risk models were flawed, compensation was too aligned with revenues as opposed to earnings, and in some cases banks were competing with their clients.”
Regulators tackled some of the excesses by imposing sharply higher capital and liquidity requirements under Basel III. That accord, which is being phased in through 2019, in combination with a subdued global economy is already having a dramatic impact. Aftertax returns on equity for the top 13 global investment banks will fall to an average of 7 percent from around 20 percent in the years on either side of the financial crisis,根据麦肯锡公司的估计- 行业利润下降25％，从2010年的400亿美元，一级1亿美元，达到4000亿美元。
The biggest driver of change is the new capital requirements for market and counterparty risk, which are more than double previous standards. These charges will put the hardest squeeze on the investment banks’ fixed-income, currencies and commodities businesses, which according to McKinsey have generated more than 50 percent of the banks’ revenues over the past five years.
“如果我确定它可以达到12％的股权回报，我会投资一家银行，”美国和欧洲财政负责人在伦敦的资产经理普通投资。但即使这一减少的门槛超出了大多数银行的掌握，主要是因为继续欧元区危机。一些银行在去年11月宣布的瑞银投资银行尚未注册少量损失，宣布，到2016年，它将缩减其雄心并将其雄心为雄心缩减，并将其风险加权资产减少约50％至2016年的SFR135亿美元（1410亿美元）。
| 收益递减规律 | ||||||||||||
| 新法规对银行股权回报的影响 | ||||||||||||
| Businesses | 预先 规定 ％ |
Market- risk 框架 |
counter- party- 信用风险 |
OTC shift: RWA1 减少 |
OTC shift: 收入 影响 |
首都 ratio |
杠杆作用 ratio |
liquidity 和 资金 成本 |
邮政- 规定 ％ |
改变 ％ |
||
| 外汇 | 3.0. | -8 | 0. | 0. | 0. | -4 | 0. | -2 | 16. | -45 | ||
| 流量 | 19. | -6 | -5 | 4. | -1 | -2 | 0. | -1 | 8. | -60 | ||
| Structured rates | 15. | -4 | -6 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 0. | -1 | 4. | -80 | ||
| Flow credit | 18. | -8 | 0. | 0. | -1 | -1 | 0. | -1 | 6. | -65 | ||
| Structured credit | 17. | -9 | -2 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 0. | -1 | 3. | -85 | ||
| Commodities | 20. | -6 | -3 | 1 | -1 | -2 | 0. | -2 | 8. | -60 | ||
| Cash equities | 25 | -5 | 0. | 0. | 0. | -3 | 0. | -2 | 15. | -40 | ||
| 流动股权衍生品 | 25 | -8 | -1 | 2 | -5 | -2 | 0. | -2 | 9. | -65 | ||
| 结构性股权衍生物 | 27. | -10 | -4 | 1 | -1 | -2 | 0. | -2 | 9. | -70 | ||
| Prime services | 15. | 0. | 0. | 0. | 0. | -3 | -3 | -1 | 8. | -45 | ||
| 专有交易 | 3.5 | -22 | -1 | 0. | -1 | -2 | 0. | -2 | 7. | -80 | ||
| 总资本市场 | 20. | -7 | -3 | 2 | -1 | -2 | 0. | -1 | 7. | -65 | ||
|
资料来源：麦肯锡公司 | |||||||||||
大多数人也在苦苦挣扎。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)是年代lashing costs after profits in the second quarter dropped by 63 percent from a year earlier, to a modest €357 million. Goldman saw its return on equity tumble to a mere 3.7 percent in 2011, although it rebounded to 8.8 percent in the first half of this year. Morgan Stanley’s ROE slumped to 3.9 percent in 2011 and 1.5 percent in the first six months of 2012. Even J.P. Morgan is rethinking its ROE target of 17 percent, although it managed to achieve 18 percent in the first half. Philip Keevil, a partner at the advisory boutique Compass Advisers in New York and a former head of European M&A at Citigroup, points out the dilemma that investment banks face in the postcrisis era: “You can’t make return on equity of 30 percent without leverage.” According to McKinsey, cutting head count and pay could push ROE back up to 14 percent. Markus Böhme, a senior partner at Roland Berger in Singapore, says the industry needs to cut its 2011 global cost base of around €170 billion by a third, primarily by trimming salaries and bonuses, and reduce its global workforce of 500,000 by 15 percent if it wants to lift ROE above 11 percent.
Yet banks are slow to take such action. While they have cut the absolute level of remuneration, with Goldman’s annualized average pay per employee standing at around $340,000 this year, down nearly 50 percent from 2007, compensation ratios typically remain in their long-standing range of 40 to 50 percent of revenues.
Goldman allocated 42 percent of revenues to compensation in 2011 — only two percentage points less than in 2007, while Morgan Stanley’s 2011 ratio was 52 percent, down from the 62 percent it paid out in the loss-making year of 2009. “They are still reluctant to slash and burn their businesses, because they believe there will be an upturn eventually,” says PineBridge’s Sen, formerly a longtime bank analyst at both Goldman Sachs and UBS.
尽管在去年发生了削减，但是头部计数仍处于历史上高水平。高盛雇用大约32,500人，比2007年的大约2,000多。摩根士丹利的头部数目现在超过60,000人，比金融危机面积超过了约10,000，虽然大部分收益反映了该公司对经纪和财富管理的越来越强调。
伦敦Mediobanca Securities的分析师Christopher Whiper表示，“赔偿支付是荒谬的”，伦敦Mediobanca证券的分析师。“必须迫使期望，以便只有顶部只有少数，就像任何其他行业一样，获得大奖励。”
摩根士丹利一直是坦率的需求，需要降低工资，但银行如何在没有失去关键人才的情况下如何实现这一目标仍然不确定。正如Kelleher所说，“很明显，该行业的赔偿必须重新入住，因此该行业将失去这种气氛的人。这可能没有坏事。“
In some cases, a smaller number of bankers are receiving multimillion-dollar pay awards. A senior London-based source at a large Wall Street bank says that in the mid-2000s the top 5 percent of professionals at his firm, around 1,000 people, were paid $1 million or more annually. Now, he says, “it’s more like the early ’90s, with just a handful earning that much.”
Says Huw Jenkins, a former CEO of UBS’s investment banking arm who is now a managing partner in the London office of Brazilian investment bank BTG Pactual, “It’s not sustainable that a banker should be paid 10 or 20 times what an experienced doctor is paid.” BTG Pactual has a compensation ratio in the 30 percent range.
很容易忘记投资银行家曾经是磨坊的高管。Compass’s Keevil, for instance, recalls joining Morgan Stanley’s corporate finance division in New York in 1975 as one of only 12 MBA graduate recruits globally, for a salary of $17,000 plus a 40 percent bonus — less than he was offered by some of the bigger management consultants.
For the time being, however, there are few signs of a reversion to the industry’s more-modest days. Harvard Business School employment statistics show that, for MBA classes of the past decade, investment banking remains the second most popular career after consulting. Generally, around 10 percent of graduates each year seek well-paid opportunities on Wall Street. At the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, around a quarter of each class typically goes into the industry. Malcolm Horton, global head of recruitment at Nomura in London, says that his firm receives between 25,000 and 50,000 applications for 2,000 graduate-level jobs every year. But, he notes, “compensation will be lower in the years to come, and we are lowering our new hires’ expectations.”
在行业的压力下，许多大银行正在寻求尽量减少削减，希望成为最后一个人的身体。“市场压力将迫使一些较弱的球员缩减或退出市场的某些领域，使我们能够提高我们的市场份额，”伦敦银行Merrill Lynch全球资本市场主席Rupert Hume-Kendall说。根据欧洲欧洲，中东和非洲的伦敦银行业的银行业联盟，Citigroup将继续提供与预定时间相同的产品系列产品，尽管是在Precrisiace中，但对于欧洲，中东和非洲的银行业的银行业的银行业联盟，据少量的大型企业客户。
尽管如此，许多银行仍然从专有的交易和贸易和项目融资等领域进行了明显的撤退。在未来几年内，在固定收入，货币和商品交易中也可能在重大撤离。到目前为止，这对公司和全球经济来说看起来特别不好的消息;there is considerable overcapacity in the industry, and alternative firms and investors are willing to step in. Roland Berger’s Böhme asserts that the shadow banking system, including hedge funds and private equity firms, could pick up perhaps a third of the risk-taking capacity that banks are shedding.
银行正在逐步淘汰其支柱交易武器，以应对Volcker统治，美国法规严重限制银行交易自身账户。据麦肯锡（McKinsey）在金融危机之前，据麦肯锡占金融危机，虽然海滨银行的总投资银行总收入的总投资银行收入的总额约为13个银行的总投资银行的总收入的约5％。贸易商已经开始迁至对冲基金，高盛自2010年以来一直在蜿蜒下调其运营。该银行一直萎缩其支柱交易部门，投资和贷款部门，该部门仅占第二季度的3％的集团收入。Mediobanca的Chris Wheeler认为，高盛最终将脱离该部门。摩根士丹利去年关闭了其支柱交易单位。
Project and trade finance are also becoming less attractive as Basel III effectively penalizes long-term debt by requiring banks to more closely match the duration of their assets and liabilities. Dealogic data shows that project finance deals this year are lagging behind those of 2011, with only $29.3 billion of deals announced globally by mid-August, compared with $79 billion for all of 2011. But asset managers, private equity firms and other funds are set to take up the slack, according to Régis Monfront, deputy chief executive of corporate and investment banking at Crédit Agricole in Paris. His bank will launch a new financing model later this year that will enable it to sell 80 percent of its corporate loans to partners — mainly Asian asset managers and funds. Previously, the bank has syndicated loans only with other banks.
Fixed-income trading is a core, usually profitable activity for investment banks, but it’s not something they will be able to do on the same scale for much longer, given the new capital requirements. Perhaps a third of today’s total FICC revenue could shift to hedge funds and other alternative investors over the next few years, forecasts Roland Berger’s Böhme. Frédéric Janbon, global head of fixed income at BNP Paribas in London, sees global players falling from today’s 15 or so to as few as ten.
接送这项业务的举措是在早期阶段，但它不仅是看待机会的替代资产管理人员。基于纽约的Blackrock，它管理了1.2万亿美元的固定收入资产，已在其Blackrock Solutions风险和咨询服务单位内设立了一家交易平台，阿拉丁贸易网络。
但是，新的球员将无法取代银行在这些市场的角色。“批发银行批发银行批发银行负责人，批发银行负责人，批发银行负责人迈克·雷斯和董事会成员，可能会受到一定数量的交易。“公司希望银行要做包销问题等事情，”他注意到，这些公司更喜欢银行履行这一角色，因为它们比其他资本其他潜在管道更严格。纽约港菲茨杰拉德＆Co Co.的Shawn Matthews预测资产经理和资金的作用仅限于持有资产，而银行将充当中介机构，将买家和卖家匹配并在短时间内持有资产。制作市场。
总的来说，这种变化可以使公司筹集资金更昂贵，因为银行可能会传递至少部分成本。罗兰伯格估计，由于所有监管变革，固定收入保险费将增加10％。
新的监管环境确实为投资银行有一些银衬里。BNP Paribas的首席执行官Jean-LaurentBonnafé辩称，欧洲的资本市场将变得更加重要，因为银行被迫削减贷款。European companies currently raise only about 25 to 30 percent of their financing in the capital markets there, with banks supplying the rest, roughly the reverse of proportions in the U.S. “There is plenty of potential to expand our already strong fixed-income capabilities,” Bonnafé says.
银行不能轻易替换任何地方。“很难看出其他类型的机构可以维持这么大的液体债券市场 - 我们需要像J.P. Morgan和Deutsche Bank这样的流动怪物，”Mediobanca的惠勒说。根据标准普尔的数据，全球公司债券市场巨大，即使在2009年的高峰期从2009年的高峰发展到3.3万亿美元。2011年，它仍然高达2.44万亿美元，并在2012年上半年，发行了1.4万亿美元的公司债券。
Morgan Stanley’s Kelleher is confident the banks will still control the capital markets. “I don’t buy the argument that the investment banking industry is in secular decline,” he says, adding that demographics and reduced public sector provision mean that private sector pensions and savings will continue to drive liquidity in the capital markets. According to TheCityUK, a financial services industry body in London, global pension assets stood at $30.9 trillion at the end of 2011, double the level of a decade earlier.
然而，更多的Draconian法规的威胁仍然存在。在对机构投资者的采访中，FDIC的Hoen亚博赞助欧冠ig是堪萨斯城美联储银行银行银行银行银行的前任主团，应严格限制银行的活动，以尽量减少存款人和纳税人的风险。他一直在积极在国会山上游说政治家，他的论点已经获得了势头，因为Libor Scandal于6月破裂。Hoenig建议将存款银行不被允许对其自己的帐户或客户或客户或赞助者对冲或私募股权基金进行经纪人经销商活动，贸易证券或衍生品。这将使他们履行与投资银行相关的危险活动，如并购咨询，证券承销和财富和资产管理。“这些机构中集中了太多风险，所以我们希望强迫经纪人经销商出来，”Hoenig说。
Hoenig的竞选活动可能不会成功，但投资银行业正在减少到规模。•