法国巴黎银行着眼于美国和亚洲，但增长将缓慢

让-劳伦特·邦纳菲（JEAN-LAURENT BONNAFÉ）脱下深灰色西装，走进法国巴黎银行蒙德拉贡（l'Hôtel de Mondragon）办公室的二楼会议室。蒙德拉贡（l'Hôtel de Mondragon）曾是波拿巴（Napoléon Bonaparte）与若泽·菲尼·德·博哈奈斯（Joséphine de Beauharnais）1796年结婚的宏伟市政厅。他身穿浅蓝色衬衫，这位首席执行官在最近的一次采访中讲话如此轻声细语，以至于在外面巴黎交通的嘈杂声中很难听到他的声音。然而他的语言已经足够清晰了。他用流利的英语阐述了管理欧元区第二大银行资产的基本方法。”作为一名资深银行家，你必须能够平衡风险和创新这两个经常形成鲜明对比的主题，以及平衡客户关系、技术和员工等多个不同层面。”。对于法国国家银行，他补充道，“我们是一家平衡的公司，这使我们更容易在整个周期中生存和繁荣。”这家法国大银行确实比大多数欧洲银行更好地度过了金融危机，但它的平衡对Bonnafé构成了严峻的挑战。该行的大部分零售业务位于欧元区的中心地带，为欧元区债务危机造成的经济停滞提供了支撑，这些业务为该集团带来了略多于一半的收益。法国经济在过去三个季度一直停滞不前，几乎没有增长，而该行的其他欧元区大市场意大利和比利时则陷入衰退。公司和投资银行部门（CIB）通常提供四分之一到三分之一的利润，在严格的新资本要求和其他监管的重压下，它面临着收缩的压力，就像许多投资银行业一样。该行的投资解决方案部门（包括资产管理和保险）也与欧洲经济紧密相关，今年上半年业绩持平。

因此，Bonnafé发现自己正试图抑制风险，抛售资产，而不是追逐增长，就像危机前20年的大部分时间里，该行所做的那样。Bonnafé在2011年下半年尝到了挑战的滋味，当时对希腊可能违约和欧元解体的担忧搅乱了欧洲银行业。法国巴黎银行遭受重创，损失约€高管们表示，由于美国货币市场基金撤出，这一时期有1000亿美元（1280亿美元）的短期融资。在时任首席执行官波杜因·普罗特（Baudouin Prot）的领导下，作为首席运营官的波纳菲（Bonnafé）曾站在一线，镇定自若，他回忆说这是一个“充满挑战的时期”。作为回应，波纳菲和普罗特实施了一项所谓的调整计划，旨在降低银行资产负债表的杠杆率。自2011年9月以来，该行已将风险加权资产削减10%，并抛售了其持有的欧元区外围国家主权债券。该行也比同行更快地将核心一级资本充足率提高至9%，欧洲银行业当局正要求提高这一比率，以增强对银行业的信心。根据巴塞尔协议III的规定，截至6月底，法国巴黎银行的股价已达到8.9%。相比之下，德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）预计到今年年底这一比率将仅为7.2%，瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）预计为8.6%。更令人印象深刻的是，法国巴黎银行（bnpparibas）在没有发行新资本的情况下成功地提高了这一比率，这是瑞士信贷（creditsuisse）、瑞银（UBS）和联合信贷（UniCredit）等多家欧洲银行不得不采取的手段。尽管去杠杆化和疲弱的经济对收入造成了损失，但法国巴黎银行仍保持了盈利能力。该银行公布的净收入为€2012年前6个月为47亿美元，比上年同期下降不到1%，而收入下降12%，为3%€200亿。这一结果与大多数竞争对手相比是有利的。举例来说，德意志银行上半年的盈利下降了三分之一，至€21亿。事实上，在整个危机期间，法国巴黎银行有着令人羡慕的业绩：它每年都保持稳定的盈利，仅在一个季度就陷入亏损，亏损了2%€这家法国银行也一直派发股息，尽管今年早些时候确实将派息削减了43%。相比之下，德意志银行和瑞士信贷银行2008年亏损数十亿欧元。法国巴黎银行对欧元区危机的反应给投资者和分析师留下了深刻印象，而且在欧洲央行（ecb）提振欧元努力的鼓舞下，它们自8月份以来推高了股价。但许多投资者仍对该行的整体形象持谨慎态度。”它太像一家欧元区银行了，”持有法国巴黎银行少量股份的ofigestion Privée驻巴黎基金经理雅克•帕斯卡•波尔塔（Jacques Pascal Porta）表示。这家银行的股票当时在涨停€9月28日为36.98，较2011年底上涨21.8%，但较欧元债务危机开始升温的2011年7月初仍下跌32.7%。该股市盈率为7.8倍，远远落后于德意志银行（Deutsche）的10.3倍和汇丰控股（HSBC Holdings）的11倍。购买该行股票通常被视为对欧元的信任投票。总部位于巴黎的资产管理公司Carmignac Gestion的副总经理埃里克·勒科兹（Eric Le Coz）报告称，8月份，该公司将其5%的资产转移€280亿卡米格纳克帕特里莫因多元化基金及其运作€80亿卡米格纳克将股票基金投资于欧元区银行，包括法国巴黎银行（bnpparibas）和法国兴业银行（SociétéGénérale），因为欧洲央行承诺“不惜一切代价”捍卫欧元。他表示，尽管卡米格纳克通常是长期投资者，但银行股可能并非如此。为了赢得投资者的青睐，去年12月接替Prot担任CEO的Bonnafé需要让集团重回增长轨道，提高利润率。在目前的气候下，这并不容易。与大多数银行一样，法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）的股本回报率也因危机而大幅下降，从2007年的19.6%降至2011年的8.8%。该行上半年成功地将净资产收益率（ROE）小幅提升至9%，远高于11家欧洲最大银行5.4%的平均净资产收益率，但这仍略低于其资本成本。这位首席执行官警告称，投资者不应指望任何快速改善。尽管欧元区正在好转，但他预计，未来两年，欧元区经济将保持平稳，或者至多表现出非常缓慢的增长。”他表示：“考虑到经济环境，一家大型银行在2012年和2013年实现10%的目标将非常困难。”今年迄今为止，我们实现的9%是除汇丰银行（HSBC）以外所有欧洲银行中最好的水平。“这家总部位于伦敦的银行上半年的ROE为10.5%，税前利润增长11%，达到127亿美元。Bonnafé正在海外寻求增长，但进展可能很缓慢，充其量也不大。该行正寻求在亚洲地区实现有机增长a and North America, principally through its CIB and investment solutions divisions. BNP Paribas has slashed its fixed-income trading book, like virtually every other major investment bank, but it is hoping to take advantage of the retrenchment on Wall Street and bolster its fixed-income distribution capabilities in the U.S. The changes wrought by the crisis make CIB critical to the bank’s future even if the division has to be run with less risk-taking, says Bonnafé. “Corporate and investment banking will become if anything more — not less — important in the coming years,” he says. “Basel III will push Europe closer to the U.S. model of financing in which capital markets, rather than bank lending, supply the bulk of the financing needs of corporations.” Overall, Bonnafé promises a steady-as-she-goes continuity. The economic and regulatory background rules out much beyond an efficient management of the bank’s existing profile in the near term. Indeed, he doesn’t intend to produce a new business plan for the bank until the end of 2013. As Prot, now chairman, put it in a September interview, “Acquisitions are not a priority now. But our share price is improving, and that potentially makes an acquisition easier.” BNP Paribas’s management culture also militates against radical change. Bonnafé spent two decades rising through a series of key positions at the bank and served a lengthy apprenticeship under Prot before taking the top job, just as Prot had under his mentor, Michel Pébereau. Executive transitions at BNP Paribas are about as seamless as they come in the banking industry, with predictable results. “The shape of the business won’t change even after we’ve presented a new business plan at the end of next year,” says Bonnafé. “Our revenues will be half retail, one third corporate and investment banking, one sixth investment solutions.” The CEO’s vision may lack for excitement, but competent and efficient management of the bank’s sprawling network would be no small achievement under the circumstances.

法国巴黎银行的健康状况不仅对银行的客户和股东有影响。银行是个庞然大物，拥有€截至6月底，法国资产规模为2万亿欧元，几乎相当于法国国内生产总值（gdp），在欧元区银行中仅次于德意志银行（Deutsche）€2.2万亿。法国巴黎银行（bnpparibas）也是总部位于巴塞尔的金融稳定委员会（financialstabilityboard）确定的全球29家具有系统重要性的金融机构之一。该行号称在80多个国家设有分支机构，员工总数近20万。难怪梅迪奥班卡证券（Mediobanca Securities）驻伦敦的银行业分析师阿兰•奇博佐（Alain Tchibozo）表示，“法国巴黎银行是一个宏观决定。”

如今，大多数银行都在为自己辩护，法国巴黎银行也不例外。但是，邦纳菲被迫扮演的保守派角色与他的前任们追求的无情增长形成了鲜明对比。巴黎国家银行于1993年私有化后，当时的首席执行官佩伯劳开始了大胆的扩张努力，建立了一个以固定收益和股票衍生品为重点的大型资本市场业务，并在1999年与法国兴业银行（Sociéténérale）展开了一场激烈的三方大战，收购了其主要竞争对手之一巴黎银行（Paribas），他于2003年接替佩贝罗，2006年收购意大利国家银行（Banca Nazionale del Lavoro），建立了中东欧专营权，收购了波兰、土耳其和乌克兰的银行，从而加速了经济增长。具有讽刺意味的是，考虑到法国巴黎银行在这场危机中的表现，它是金融煤矿中的一只金丝雀。2007年8月9日，摩根大通决定暂停三只持有大量美国次级抵押贷款证券的投资基金的提款，这是危机即将来临的第一个信号之一。当天晚些时候，欧洲央行（ecb）将注入一笔当时前所未有的资金€950亿欧元的隔夜流动性流入欧洲银行体系。然而，在这些投资基金之外，法国巴黎银行对美国抵押贷款证券的敞口相对较小，其损失与德意志银行、汇丰银行和瑞银等欧洲银行相比相形见绌。即使是它的620亿美元资产附属公司，旧金山的西部银行，在2009年也只损失了一个亏损，自那以来，利润已经恢复到接近危机前的水平。该行的相对实力使普罗特得以在2009年收购富通银行集团在比利时和卢森堡的业务。与他的前任和许多其他法国高管一样，博纳菲在这项工作中采用了严谨、分析的方法。Bonnafé出生于法国南部图卢兹附近的阿尔比，最初他希望能追随自己的工程师父亲的脚步。他曾就读于巴黎两所著名的工程学院，即埃科尔理工学院和埃科尔矿山学院，然后以技术顾问的身份进入公共服务部门，先是在工业部，然后是对外贸易部长。1992年，时任法国巴黎银行大公司部门主管的费雯·莱维·加布（Vivien Lévy Garboua）突然打来一个电话，让他走上了一条新的道路。Lévy Garboua也是两个工程学院的产品，他从其他校友那里听说过Bonnafé的智力和商业驱动力。在几次谈话中，莱维·加布和他的副手埃尔文·罗森博格说服邦纳夫尝试银行业务。他于1993年加入公司，担任高级投资银行家，很快就以他处理问题和与客户合作的不懈态度给同事们留下了深刻印象。”他可能会被悄悄地说出来，但对任何认识他的人来说，他都毫无疑问有着非常坚强的意志。在他早期的日子里，Bonnafé报道了零售商家乐福和化学药品集团Rhône Poulenc等。即使在今天，作为首席执行官，他仍然有自己的客户，包括法国电信和施耐德电气。他说，他每天至少要拜访一位客户，既要了解他们的需求，又要了解更广泛的经济形势。”他谦虚、聪明，而且非常善于说服客户，他完全专注于他们的利益，”罗森博格说，他现在是巴黎私人银行Compagnie financiaère Edmond de Rothschild的高级顾问。1997年，博纳夫被佩贝罗认定为一名高材生，从罗森博格的团队中脱颖而出，成为集团战略与发展主管。这一职位使他与佩贝罗和普罗特一起成为帕里巴斯收购传奇的核心人物。到2002年，Bonnafé担任法国零售主管，在集团执行委员会中占有一席之地。他给普罗特留下深刻印象的是，他开发了网上银行服务，并始终实现了每年3%至4%的略快收入增长目标。”他通过设定清晰的愿景和雄心勃勃的目标，显示了他在激励员工方面的非凡才能，”普罗特回忆道。当法国巴黎银行在2006年收购法国国家银行时，普罗特派遣邦纳菲到罗马担任董事总经理，监督整合。他通过促进产品的交叉销售，加速了这家意大利银行的收入增长；合并后的第一年，BNL的收入增长了7%，而支出仅增长了1%。2008年，普罗特将他提升为首席运营官和集团零售部负责人，这与普罗特在佩伯劳（Pébereau）任内的经历如出一辙。2009年，Bonnafé接任富通（Fortis）首席执行官一职，负责监管这家比利时银行的整合。去年，法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）遭遇融资危机时，Bonnafé毫不吝啬地工作，大多数日子都是从早上7:30主持银行流动性监控委员会会议开始，通常呆在办公室直到晚上11:00。如果对继任者有任何疑问，邦纳菲在压力下的冷静会让他们不以为然。Bonnafé展示了他作为银行家的技能primarily by reengineering individual business units, says Jean-Pierre Lambert, a London-based banks analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Now he has to show he can drive growth across the whole bank. He and his team have laid the groundwork for renewed growth by quickly deleveraging the group. Through a combination of asset sales and letting some credits hit maturity, the bank reduced risk-weighted assets by €70 billion, or just over 10 percent, to €614 billion at the end of 2011 and brought the total down to €578 billion at the end of June. Bonnafé plans to trim another €9 billion in the next few months. Among notable transactions, the bank sold its 28.7 percent stake in French real estate investment firm Klépierre to U.S.-based Simon Property Group in March, recording a €1.5 billion capital gain on the deal. It sold a $9.5 billion portfolio of energy loans to Wells Fargo in January. BNP Paribas has also cut its exposure to sovereigns on the euro zone periphery. It reduced its holdings of Greek and Spanish government bonds to less than €1 billion at the end of June from €6.2 billion a year ago and slashed its holdings of Italian debt by nearly half, to €11.5 billion; the bank took a loss of €1 billion on the disposals. The investment banking division has trimmed its books too. CIB reduced its fixed-income assets by €71 billion in 2011, to €120 billion, and cut trading assets with clients by €59 billion. Those cutbacks have reduced CIB’s funding needs by $65 billion. On a risk-weighted basis, BNP Paribas is trimming the investment bank’s assets by €45 billion, and had achieved some €39 billion of that as of June 30. This “weight loss program,” as Christophe Nijdam, a banking analyst at research firm AlphaValue in Paris, puts it, meant that BNP Paribas “wasn’t looking at ways of increasing revenue or profitability for a year.” The bank acknowledges that the deleveraging program will reduce its revenue-generating capacity by €1.4 billion a year, or 3.5 percent. Shrinking assets has helped the bank to cope with some of the funding shortfall caused by the withdrawal of U.S. money market funds. BNP Paribas has also stepped up its funding, selling €43 billion in medium-to-long-term debt in 2011. Over the first nine months of this year, the bank has raised an additional €30 billion, well ahead of its target of €20 billion; more than half of the funds have come through private placements. The bank tapped the ECB’s long-term refinancing operations but hasn’t disclosed for how much. Central bank figures show that French banks took a total of €150 billion. Bonnafé has stabilized the bank but is waiting for greater regulatory clarity before drafting a new business plan with profit targets. His main preoccupations? He wants to see details of the new liquidity requirements that the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is still finalizing. He is also waiting to see whether EU authorities will implement the proposal of an expert group led by Finnish central bank governor Erkki Liikanen, which early this month recommended that banks be required to move proprietary trading, market making and other activities into separately capitalized legal entities, insulating them from retail and commercial lending and deposit-taking businesses. The U.K. already plans to impose a similar ring fencing requirement on its banks. Like many other banks, BNP Paribas used to rely on leverage to boost returns. Indeed, the bank had one of the highest leverage ratios in Europe, with assets hitting 35.7 times equity in 2008. By June, the bank had cut its leverage to 20.4 times, lower than any other major European bank except HSBC. Going forward, Bonnafé is looking to generate growth in Asia. It’s hardly a novel strategy among Western banks, but the CEO has some cards to play. The bank generates 12 percent of its nonretail revenues in Asia and employs 13,500 people there in its CIB and investment solutions divisions. “In Asia our starting point is strong, with full banking licenses in 12 countries,” he says. One early target: insurance. BNP Paribas Cardif, a subsidiary that offers a variety of life, health and property/casualty insurance and pension products, aims to increase the Asian share of its revenues to 20 percent in three years’ time, from 12 percent today. “We are hiring in Asia, and we’ll be giving details of our development plans in December or January,” the CEO notes. The bank is also looking to grow its asset and wealth management businesses in Asia. BNP Paribas increased its assets under management by 1 percent in the first half of the year, to €873 billion. “The asset management industry as a whole is projected to increase its assets by 5 to 10 percent over the next ten years, and we want to be better than average,” says Jacques d’Estais, who heads investment solutions. The division’s operating profit fell 4.7 percent over the first six months of 2012, to €1 billion, while revenue edged up 1.1 percent, to €3. 1 billion. Analysts welcome the focus on Asia but are skeptical that the region can move the needle at the bank any time soon. “BNP Paribas can’t suddenly become Standard Chartered,” says Porta of OFI Gestion. With the Chinese economy slowing, the heat might be going out of Asian GDP growth, analysts observe. “They’re right to try to double Asian revenues, but they’re too late,” says Mediobanca’s Tchibozo. Investment banking is a rather unlikely growth area. Revenues in CIB fell by 16.7 percent in the first half, to €5.3 billion, and pretax profits tumbled 35 percent, to €2 billion. Weakness in Western European markets and the bank’s own deleveraging have weighed on results. Fixed income, a traditional strength, has been particularly hard-hit; revenues plunged by more than 50 percent in the second quarter from the first, to €838 million. Like much of the industry, BNP Paribas has been retrenching in response to volatile markets and tighter regulatory constraints. The bank is cutting its 20,000-strong CIB staff by 7 percent, says Frédéric Janbon, the London-based global head of fixed income. “It is unusual for BNP Paribas,” he says. “We’re not a stop-go bank that hires and fires or takes decisions about changes to its strategy lightly.” Alain Papiasse, the Paris-based head of CIB, acknowledges that cutbacks hit the division’s results in the first half but insists that the franchise’s earnings potential remains intact. “We’re not cutting back on origination or retreating geographically, so revenues won’t necessarily be affected over the mid-to-long term,” he says. BNP Paribas ranked fifth in European debt capital markets in the first nine months of 2012, acting as bookrunner on $97.3 billion worth of deals, according to data provider Dealogic. The bank ranked eighth for all international DCM deals during that time, handling $144.1 billion. For U.S. dollar–denominated bonds, the French bank slipped one place, to 11th place, after having reached the top ten for the first time in 2011. Bonnafé is eager to improve considering that the Americas generated 21 percent of CIB revenues in the first half. “We see potential in fixed income, especially given the synergies with Europe and North America,” he says. “We’re also seeking to hire in North America to improve our fixed-income distribution, and it is a good time to hire given the difficulties faced by many of our competitors.” The corporate lending business within CIB has been hit the most by the bank’s deleveraging. Revenues in this area fell by €390 million in the first half, to €1.9 billion. “We have significantly reduced our loan book in CIB,” says Philippe Bordenave, who succeeded Bonnafé as COO. “In particular, we’ve cut back on long-term loans such as export finance and project finance. We’ve given priority to core clients, domestic markets and Asia.” Growth also seems hard to come by in retail banking. The division’s pretax profits and revenues were essentially flat in the first half, at €3.3 billion and €12.2 billion, respectively. The impact of the European economy was clear. The bank’s retail deposits rose by a fairly robust 7 percent in the first half, to €333 billion, reflecting caution among euro zone consumers. The bloc’s household savings rate stood at 13.3 percent in May, well ahead of the U.S. (9 percent) and the U.K. (6.6 percent). Demand for loans was sluggish, though, with actual lending rising only 2.7 percent, to €495 billion. Within Europe the bank increased loans in the first half by 3.3 percent in France and by 4 percent in Belgium, but Italy’s recession took a toll on BNL, which saw its lending decline by 2 percent, to €71 billion. That figure is still too large for some investors, such as OFI Gestion’s Porta, who wishes that BNP Paribas wasn’t operating in Italy even as he acknowledges that BNL was “a logical acquisition” six years ago. Given the importance of Europe, it’s no surprise that BNP Paribas executives have welcomed recent signs of improvement in the euro area. The ECB bolstered debt markets and the euro with the September unveiling of its plans to buy short-term sovereign debt, and European political leaders appear to be making progress toward creating a banking union with a common banking regulator, even if the project is taking longer than initially envisaged. “The euro zone is in much better shape than it was six months ago,” says Prot. The bank’s French retail business is the second largest in the country, after Crédit Agricole, and it is focused heavily on small and medium-size enterprises and corporates. “It’s in that segment we’re looking for growth,” says François Villeroy de Galhau, COO of the group’s retail division. Generating growth in French retail will be hard, though, considering how well the business currently performs, says Mediobanca’s Tchibozo. “France uses only 10 percent of the group’s capital but generates 25 percent of its earnings,” he notes. Bonnafé also expresses caution about the European retail outlook. “We can’t see the level of loans increasing in Europe given the limited, but stable, demand,” he says. “Lending will continue to lag behind deposit growth in the short term.” Alongside the weak economy, regulatory changes are putting pressure on the bank’s retail business. Under Basel III, bank subsidiaries in different countries will have to be self-financing rather than relying on group capital. That change will increase costs, negating one of the key advantages of having an extensive network like BNP Paribas’s. “The group is moving to HSBC’s model for financing subsidiaries, and that’s a good thing,” says KBW’s Lambert. But BNP Paribas could do without the increased costs of doing so, he adds. COO Bordenave explains the impact on the group in Italy. “Previously all our funding was raised in the name of the group so as to optimize the funding cost: The spread between BNP Paribas and BNL bonds is typically around 50 to 70 basis points,” he says. “Now regulators want each subsidiary to be self-sufficient, so we have to change, although we have always stood behind BNL.” The group has cut back its financing of BNL to €18 billion currently from €30 billion a year ago. Still, executives express satisfaction with BNL and point out that it remains comfortably profitable. “We can’t see Italy leaving the euro now that progress is being made both at the European Union level and at the national level,” says Bonnafé. “And our business in Italy is delivering €130 to €150 million of net income per quarter.” Villeroy de Galhau adds, “Despite the macroeconomic problems in Italy, we’re confident in the strength of our corporate customers.” Aside from organic growth, BNP Paribas could decide to make an acquisition outside Europe, something it has done repeatedly before, mostly in good times. Prot hints at the possibility but insists the bank won’t rush into anything. “We have been very conservative on the price paid for acquisitions,” he says. “We turned down a number of opportunities to acquire banks in 2005 to 2007 in emerging economies such as Romania, Egypt and Kazakhstan when it was very much in fashion. We were not prepared to pay the price to be the winner in highly competitive bidding processes.” That temptation might grow if the share price continues to inch up toward the net book value of €48.40 a share. A rising share price would make an acquisition easier to finance. But Bonnafé and Prot are unlikely to plump for a sizable acquisition any time soon. The bank is just on the verge of meeting its capital target after a tough year of deleveraging. Executives are unlikely to spend that capital freely in the near term. As a result, Bonnafé and his team will have to make the most of the bank’s current structure. Reliable performance rather than daring moves are the order of the day, and Bonnafé, by temperament, seems ideally suited for the job.

“我们模式的优势在于多样性，”他说该集团经受住了接连不断的经济危机，即使在非常困难的时期也取得了良好的业绩。