英国的经济状况证明政府金边债券市场的安全港地位是合理的吗?
官方产出数据最近足以混淆和担心即使是最粗心的。它提出，U.K.在去年年底遭到陷入双重衰退，在突然恢复到7月至9月的季度突破速度为1％，最快的速度下降到五年的最快速度。
这个停止开始图片不是放心。增长是雄心勃勃的政府履行财政赤字的信誉的关键。然而，即使在伦敦夏季奥运会升级的壮观第三季度数字之后，官方统计数据均显示U.K.经济略小于一年前。
希望来自不信任的斯普林斯：分析师认为，依靠U.K.国内生产总值（GDP）数量越来越危险。研究by private-sector economists suggests that having published the figures for each quarter earlier than most other leading economies, the U.K. authorities are then forced to spend much of their time disowning their original off-the-mark estimates — with an average revision of about 0.4 percentage points for each figure, measured from first to latest assessment. Many economists believe that future reassessments of this order will revise away the recent recession into oblivion. Defenders might argue that the initial estimate of GDP data is only meant to be the first rough draft of economic history, but it has been a very rough first draft indeed — no better than doggerel to its critics.
对官方产出数据感到失望的英国经济学家今年越来越多地求助于其他选择。以劳动力市场数据为例，过去一年中，就业率增长了近一个百分点，就业总人数达到创纪录的2959万人。在经济再次衰退期间，税收收入的增长比人们预期的要强劲，包括主要的消费税——增值税的大幅增长。
许多经济学家认为，对近期大量相互矛盾的数据(基于就业和税收)的相对乐观的解读可能是正确的。周四公布的制造业采购经理人数据显示，10月份制造业采购经理人指数进一步下滑，这表明英国今年全年的经济增长依然缓慢。
然而，这一增长速度越来越远，远非辉煌的新闻。它仅表明，U.K.经济还没有在危机领土上越来越远，通过其零赤字的旅程不到一半 - 保守 - 自由民主党联盟政府的最终目标。国际货币基金组织（国际货币基金组织）表明，循环调整后的余额将于2010年的峡谷上涨8.5％，这一年度持续到今年GDP的5.4％仍然占地差不多。通过使用U.K.政府的首选措施来抵达这些数字，调整了经济周期。
不仅有长途旅行的方式。研究published by the IMF in October ignited a quiet explosion among economists by suggesting that the uphill gradient may be considerably steeper than previously thought, for countries travelling down the same fiscal road as the U.K. Basing its research on recent austerity programs, the IMF suggests that the fiscal multiplier in advanced economies may, at between 0.9 and 1.7, be much higher than its earlier assumption of 0.5. Translated into everyday language, this means that a reduction in public spending or increase in tax of 1 percent of GDP may reduce GDP growth by as much as 1.7 percent — creating a considerably more vicious circle of government austerity and economic slump than first assumed.
给英国经济增长的波动性,不信任的基本数据用于计算是否经济正处于危机之中,和新的怀疑夏普和长期财政紧缩的可能性可以成功,令人安心的是,今年英国国债市场已经令人印象深刻的展示了英国的僵硬的上唇。2012年早些时候，10年期英国国债收益率达到1.41%的历史低点;周四收盘时，欧元收益率为1.87%，远低于意大利和西班牙等欧元区国家今年预计赤字将下降的收益率。英国国债处于宽松状态的关键在于认识到，英国央行(Bank of England)可以继续多年充当英国国债的最后买家，而欧洲央行(ecb)则不会。
第一个信贷紧缩 - 在雷曼，AIG和其他球员坠毁之后的市场崩溃 - 向机构投资者教授几个或多或少地记得的经验教训，例如在危机时期，看似大大区分市场的事实亚博赞助欧冠齐心起来。
第二集 - 由于政府试图偿还债务和由第一集引起的赤字的长期延长 - 正在教授投资者也有一些相当新鲜的课程，包括两个特别相关的主权债务市场。一个是，财政乘法器可能比我们想象的要大。Another lesson — which can be drawn from the U.S. as well as the U.K. — is that even when conventional monetary policy is exhausted, even when there is no room for fiscal easing and even when the state of the economy is uninspiring, central banks can still intervene over long periods to keep the ship of state, funded by the bond markets, afloat.