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一代特殊:2012年崛起的华尔街研究明星

一些只有最近开始出版研究的分析师已经在机构投资者崛起的华尔街研究恒星中获得通知。亚博赞助欧冠

    From锁定排名

    在加入桑福德C.伯恩斯坦&Co.作为2010年的互联网分析师之前,Carlos Kirjner-Neto在不是三个专业努力的三个领域享有成功。他与纽约麦肯锡公司为一位技术和电信行业顾问花了近十年;然后,沃达丰集团的跨国电信巨头主导业务发展,总部位于加利福尼亚州的桑尼维尔的软件开发人员电信系统;最后在2009年被美国联邦通信委员会挖掘,以帮助创建国家宽带计划。

    Kirjner-Neto's令人印象深刻的简历 - 他也掌握了博士学位。从加利福尼亚大学的计算机科学中,伯克利 - 聘请了伯尔尼斯坦的人才童子军的眼睛,聘请了顾问和行业专家,并列进他们成为股权分析师,而不是诱使远离其他卖方公司的研究人员或从其内部推广自己的行列。

    “这真的是为了找到伟大的人民,促进他们,”纽约的纽约·丹尼尔·德沃德,股权研究总监Daniel Dowd说。“这并不像伯尔尼斯坦让他们明星。我们为伟大的人提供了成为明星的平台。“

    基金经理们对此表示赞同。每年亚博赞助欧冠asks buy-siders to indicate who among their sell-side counterparts merits inclusion on theAll-America Research Team,we also ask them to identify the Rising Stars of Wall Street Research — analysts who have been publishing research for less than three years but already appear destined for greatness. Five of the nine Bernstein analysts who were dubbed Rising Stars in 2011 have risen to the 2012 team.

    呢?摩根士丹利领导阵容,其中八个分析师在最好的上升之中考虑。伯尔尼斯坦在第二位,七星升起。(Last year these two firms shared the top spot; two of Morgan Stanley’s 2011 stars have advanced to the 2012 team.) Barclays, which tied for 15th place last year, rockets to share the third tier with Credit Suisse, which jumps from No. 6. These banks are home to five standout analysts each — for Barclays that is a net increase of four; for Credit Suisse a gain of two.

    Kirjner-Neto, 46, acknowledges that his experience accords him insights that other analysts don’t have. For example, “I understand the details of Google’s page-rank algorithm. This isn’t crucial to the analyst’s job, because I think there are several analysts who [cover the Mountain View, California–based company] very well and don’t understand these issues, but it is helpful,” he says.

    今年5月,这位伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)分析师在Facebook首次公开募股(ipo)前夕发布了一份关于Facebook的报道,当时他对这家总部位于加利福尼亚州门罗公园(Menlo Park)的社交网站运营商的股票估值仅为每股25美元,这一估值低于华尔街其他分析师的估值,大多数人预计,该股的开盘价将在28美元至35美元之间,开盘价为38美元,到首日交易结束时,该股已大跌10.4%,至34.03美元。这些股票距离恢复IPO价格还有很长的路要走。

    今年7月,Kirjner Neto将Facebook的市场表现提升至21.71美元,并将目标价从25美元下调至23美元,但他指出,投资者可能希望等到股价跌破20美元后再买入。8月中旬,他们就这么做了。该股在10月下旬的交易价格为21.11美元。

    Another analyst who attributes his current success to a background in industry is Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.’s Brian Lively, a Rising Star in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production. The Houston-based researcher earned a bachelor of science degree in petroleum engineering at Louisiana State University, then joined Exxon Mobil Corp. in Irving, Texas, as a senior project manager.

    “我没有毕业于大学思考,我要做股权xinyabo体育app ,”他说。“我绝对不知道股权xinyabo体育app 是什么。我专注于在石油公司工作并成为工程师。“

    In 2005, Lively moved to Houston-based engineering consulting firm Netherland, Sewell & Associates and enrolled in night school at the University of Houston to earn an MBA, expecting that the degree would help him realize his goal of launching his own business.

    “I alwayshad this idea that I wanted to start an exploration and production company at some point,” says Lively, 35. “When I think about why I did what I did along the way, it was kind of a function of trying to learn more about how companies grow so I could build an E&P organization.”

    That quest for knowledge led him to his current post. “What I had done before coming over to Tudor Pickering was value the underlying assets of actual E&P companies, so I had that experience in terms of how to look at all the different basins and plays that companies were involved in,” Lively explains. “Just knowing those assets from a geologic and engineering perspective is the starting point to valuing these companies from an equity standpoint.”

    That’s not to say that investment research offered no new challenges. When he joined the firm in 2008, Lively had to learn how to translate a deep knowledge of assets and company valuation to the market context. “Good companies don’t necessarily mean good stocks,” he notes. “Understanding how the market values companies and how it pays for those companies in terms of the stock price was really something I had to learn on the job.”

    Of course, analysts can achieve success without having worked in a particular industry or government entity. Morgan Stanley has a program in which each new hire is paired with a mentor who guides his or her development, according to Stephen Penwell, director of U.S. equity research.

    “指导对于弹跳的想法非常重要,制作产品 - 进入启动或发射和后期的一切,”Penwell说,他们总部位于纽约。“那个导师的过程始终是至关重要的。”

    And it has worked well for Matthew Kelley, a Rising Star in Brokers, Asset Managers & Exchanges. The 34-year-old had planned to pursue a career in journalism, but midway through his undergraduate studies at Virginia’s University of Richmond, he changed tack and earned a bachelor’s degree in business administration. He accepted a position as account executive at Grey Worldwide, an advertising and marketing outfit headquartered in New York, where his duties included writing creative briefs and ad copy.

    两年半后,凯利决定继续深造。2006年,他在北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校(University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)的凯南弗拉格勒商学院(Kenan Flagler Business School)获得工商管理硕士学位,次年加入花旗,担任资产经理和在线经纪商的副分析师。”我有写作背景,xinyabo体育app 非常适合我,因为我喜欢自上而下和自下而上地了解公司和行业。

    凯利于2009年转投摩根士丹利,过去四年在全美xinyabo体育app 团队中担任银行/大盘股亚军的贝特西•格拉塞克(Betsy Graseck)成为他的导师;他于2011年11月开始发表xinyabo体育app 报告,“我帮助(格拉塞克)推出了信用卡公司的覆盖范围,并帮助从头开始建立模型,因为我知道业务是如何运作的。”

    Wedbush Securities的莎拉•詹姆斯(Sarah James)是管理式医疗领域的新星,她也很欣赏拥有教练的价值她说:“当我从大学毕业后找第一份工作时,我只是在寻找良好的培训和良师益友。”我找到的分析师埃德蒙克罗尔(edmundkroll)恰好负责管理式医疗。当时我对保险业一无所知,但我想与之共事的人负责保险业,所以我接受了这份工作。”

    32岁的詹姆斯获得了金融学学士学位t Florida State University in Tallahassee. She then began her career as a research associate at Tucker Anthony Sutro, leaving after only a few months when that firm was acquired by Royal Bank of Canada. James moved to Cowen and Co., where she met Kroll (who had been a member of the All-America Research Team five years earlier, in 1996, when he was with Lehman Brothers). She worked at UBS and Lehman, earned an MBA from the Anderson School of Management at the University of California, Los Angeles, and joined Wedbush in 2009. She began publishing research the following April — the month after President Obama signed the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act into law.

    “在过去的一年里,管理式医疗行业的变化比以往任何时候都要大,”在洛杉矶工作的詹姆斯说我用新的眼光和新的方法来看待它,这可能对我有所帮助。在某些方面,它的变化如此之大,使竞争环境变得更加平坦。”

    Offering a unique perspective also helps Lucas Pipes distinguish himself from his peers. The Brean Murray, Carret & Co. researcher, a Rising Star in Metals & Mining, says that at the outset of his career he decided to offer something that had never been attempted: a means of predicting price movements for domestic coal producers.

    “当时国内煤炭领域还没有任何成本曲线,”这位纽约xinyabo体育app 员说我用创造性的方法设计了一个,这使我与众不同。这有助于我们重新审视事物。”

    现年27岁的皮普斯2008年加入布林·默里,此前他在纽约哈德逊郡安南代尔的巴德学院获得心理学学士学位。在当时首席分析师杰里米•苏斯曼(Jeremy Sussman)的指导下,他xinyabo体育app 了金属和矿业公司;苏斯曼去年离开公司时,派普斯接任高级分析师一职。

    7月中旬,他随着共识而遭到共识,并告诉客户,他的热煤炭行业是“最糟糕的可能已经过去”的“谨慎乐观乐观乐观乐观乐观乐观”,去年在生产中经历了急剧下滑 - 甚至一些百叶窗的设施 - 甚至是低自然的-GAS价格向该商品转移需求。他说,最有可能从煤炭恢复中受益,将是具有强大资产负债表和低生产成本的公司,如Consol Energy,位于宾夕法尼亚州武尔堡的Canonsburg的煤炭和天然气制片人。到10月底,其股票从30.17美元到35.16美元增加了16.5%,并将该部门带到了8.3个百分点。

    Also attracting notice for a contrarian stance is Raghuram Bondada, a Rising Star in Aerospace & Defense Electronics for a second straight year. The RBC Capital Markets analyst was outspoken in his support of Triumph Group’s acquisition of Vought Aircraft Industries of Dallas. While other observers expressed concern about the debt the Berwyn, Pennsylvania–based component manufacturer would incur to finance the $984 million deal, Bondada was convinced that the executive team’s plan to combine operations would lower production costs.

    “我是少数几个更看好这个名字的人之一,”他回忆道结果证明,这是一次非常顺利的整合,能够与管理层交谈,并向他们提出有关事情进展的正确问题,这无疑有助于我参与正在发生的事情。”

    Bondada didn’t have to wait long for vindication. Triumph’s year-over-year revenue in the quarter following the June 2010 takeover soared 145.3 percent, to $768.2 million.

    Bondada在宾夕法尼亚州立大学获得理工学学士学位,在亚利桑那州的美国国际管理xinyabo体育app 生院(现为雷鸟全球管理学院)格伦代尔获得工商管理硕士学位,他的职业生涯始于计算机科学公司(Computer Sciences Corp.)的顾问。,一家信息技术和外包服务提供商,总部位于弗吉尼亚州福尔斯彻奇。他的客户包括西雅图的波音公司和马里兰州贝塞斯达的洛克希德马丁公司。

    “That’s where my interest in the field began,” the 35-year-old says. It’s also where he realized the hazards of specialization. “Some of these guys had been sitting in the same functions for the past 30 years. It made me realize that you can get stuck in the weeds in the industry on one program within one big company and never really get the chance to step back to see the forest. I felt like equity research would give me the opportunity to see that forest in aerospace and defense.”

    Bondada于2008年4月加入麦格理基金(美国)的股份xinyabo体育app 助理咨询到股权xinyabo体育app 助理,并于2010年7月搬迁至RBC。

    基于纽约的分析师在长期内令人乐观,但看到了一些近期湍流。7月,他在康涅狄格州斯坦福德的工业面料和结构粘合剂的制造商中,他从康涅狄格州斯坦福德,以24.63美元,主要估值。从那时起,股票几乎没有达成10月份,以25.56美元的价格为25.56美元 - 获得3.8%的收益,落后于该部门的4.6%的进步。

    基准不仅适用于股票,还适用于分析师。Bernstein’s Dowd encourages his up-and-comers to compare themselves to established researchers and ask, “Am I ramping up at the same rate as someone who became a rock star, or am I ramping up at the same rate as someone who just did okay?” Money managers who participated in the All-America Research Team have already answered that question with regard to this year’s Rising Stars. The spotlight awaits. • •

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