Palladium: Nowhere But Up?

Of all the precious metals of interest to investors, palladium may be the one to watch going into the second half of 2012.

钯金的供需基本面看好该金属的价格，市场普遍预测，今年开始供应短缺，到明年将进一步加剧。与此同时，需求正在上升。

不过，根据它最近的表现，你永远也猜不到这一点。目前，价格离低点不远。俄罗斯投资银行VTB Capital驻伦敦大宗商品研究全球主管Wiktor Bielski表示，迄今为止的问题是，在一个“冒险”的环境下，主要用于汽车催化转化器的钯一直在大举做空，尤其是对冲基金。贝尔斯基说，要理解为何尽管汽车市场表现强劲，但钯金仍在下跌，你必须关注美国商品期货交易委员会（U.S.Commodity Futures Trading Commission）每周五公布的多空统计数据。他指出，目前所有工业金属的交易都像风险资产一样。对于帕拉迪，“我不得不说，任何打空头的人都做得很好，”他说。但是，贝尔斯基坚持说，“你不可能永远与基本面抗争。”

在2月22日触及今年以来的高点71.51点后，ETF Physical Pladium Shares（PALL）于7月9日收盘报57.48点，跌幅达19.6%，是唯一一只以Physical Pladium为后盾在美国上市的ETF。在这个水平上，鲍尔离52周低点52.90不远，也离52周高点83.90远了。

有多少里程了吗in shorting palladium? “Probably not,” says Bielski. “The risk/reward is clearly skewed more to the upside.” He predicts that as a result of the way palladium has been beaten down by the shorts, “the stronger and more sustained the rally will be when it comes.” Just when that will occur, he says, “is just impossible to predict at this point, unless you have a line into Ms. Merkel and the euro zone leaders.”

One of the leading reasons why a number of fundamental commodity analysts like Bielski are strongly positive on palladium is that Russia has announced that 2012 will be the last year for sales from its Cold War–era stockpiles. Back then, Russia was mining nickel aggressively to build military equipment, and it ended up with lots of palladium as a by-product. Up until now, Russia has been the second-largest producer of palladium (behind South Africa), with over 46 percent of global annual production, according to research from ETF Securities of London, PALL’s sponsor.

贝尔斯基警告说，俄国人并没有说他们的储备已经耗尽；他说，他们已经表示将“停止从库存中出口”，没有人知道这些库存中还有多少钯，因为俄罗斯人从未公布过任何数据。但是，他补充道，“他们显然已经大幅削减了库存。”他还指出，根据莫斯科诺里尔斯克镍业公司（Norilsk nickel）的镍开采情况，有可能进行有根据的猜测，诺里尔斯克镍业公司是世界上最大的镍和钯生产商。

Johnson Matthey, a London-based precious metals refiner known for its accurate forecasts, has estimated that the Russian government will release 250,000 ounces of palladium into the market this year, down from 750,000 ounces in 2011. The firm also cites Norilsk Nickel’s guidance that it expects to be producing slightly less in the way of newly mined palladium this year, in the range of 2.6 million to 2.65 million ounces, down from 2.81 million ounces last year.

As result, Bielski is projecting that the global supply of palladium will fall short of demand by between 500,000 to 600,000 ounces in 2012 and by 800,000 ounces in 2013, in a total market of 7.5 million ounces.

在南非，钯是铂的副产品。ETF证券分析师Simona Gambarini在一封电子邮件中表示，南非的铂金产量占世界铂金产量的60%，“目前，南非存在一些问题，因为铂金和钯的低价格水平正促使生产商关闭不经济的生产。”。她指出，宝瓶座铂金公司宣布6月下旬关闭其马里卡纳矿，由于今年另外两个矿遭遇罢工问题，南非铂族金属（PGM）矿产量在2012年前四个月比2011年前四个月下降了30%，导致供应紧缩。

Matthey notes that while new production of platinum from South Africa’s mines has fallen, releases of metal from inventories meant that total shipments from South Africa of platinum rose by 5 percent to 4.86 million ounces last year, and with a ramping up of mined output in North America following shutdowns in 2010, and new and expanding operations in Zimbabwe coming on-stream, the company expects platinum to be in a surplus again this year. That will keep the price in a range of $1,450 to $1,750 per ounce in the next six months, averaging $1,600, the firm says, in its 2012 forecast on platinum and palladium issued on May 14. As of July 9, the firm was posting a base price of $1,446 per ounce on its web site, slightly under that range. However, Johnson Matthey also believes the market for palladium will swing back into deficit this year, and that positive fundamentals are likely to support a price range of $620 to $800 per ounce and an average of around $715 in the next six months. On July 9, the firm’s posted base price for palladium was well under that, at $582 per ounce.

在2012年的预测中，Johnson Matthey还指出，今年钯的预计赤字将与2011年的盈余形成鲜明对比。报告称，去年出现盈余的主要原因是etf。这些基金在2010年曾是大买家，但在2011年转为负数，向市场返还了56.5万盎司。报告称，去年钯的总需求量下降了13%，至845万盎司。虽然钯和铂都用于控制汽车排放的催化转化器，但铂更多用于柴油车，柴油车占欧洲市场的一半，而钯更多用于更小、更省油的汽车。

Gambarini of ETF Securities notes that the Chinese government’s recently approved stimulus package includes a subsidy aimed at encouraging rural residents to trade their old vehicles for new, more fuel-efficient models. Since the autocatalyst market in China is almost entirely dominated by palladium, this is “particularly positive for palladium,” she says. Auto sales in China have been strong, with the sale of passenger vehicles rising 16.6 percent year-over-year as of May. And auto sales have also been strong in the U.S., where palladium also dominates, she notes.

不过，甘巴里尼还是有些谨慎。她说，她“总体上对钯胜过铂的基本面持乐观态度”，但两者“都可能在短期内受到全球经济增长放缓的拖累”