Economics & Strategy: Sovereign Debt – Third

Alexandre Müller & teamBTG Pactual

Debuting in third place is the BTG Pactual crew of five guided by Alexandre Müller in São Paulo; the team also is ranked No. 1 in Local-Markets Strategy and No. 2 in Corporate Debt. The analysts believe Brazil’s sovereign-debt credit rating could be revised upward in the near future. “Brazil has a Baa2 rating from Moody’s [Investors Service] with a positive outlook, which can become an upgrade in the next 12 months,” Müller says. “We believe this will depend mainly on the Brazilian government’s ability to preserve its compliance with its primary surplus target and reduce debt-rollover risk through the increase in sovereign-debt maturity. We also think this upgrade can happen because Brazil is looking relatively better than some higher-rated countries in Europe.” The squad is also positive on Mexico’s sovereign debt, noting that yields on five-year credit default swaps had widened by only 5 basis points in the 12 months through mid-July, outperforming the debt of such other countries as Brazil, whose yields on five-year CDSs expanded by 25 basis points over the same period. The strategists produce research that is “thoughtful, well considered and logical in its conclusions,” declares one buy-side supporter. — Thomas W. Johnson

RUNNER(S)-UP
David Beker, Claudio Irigoyen & teamBank of America Merrill Lynch
Marcelo Figueiredo Salomon & teamBarclays