The Increasingly Changeable Case for Gold

在过去的几个月里，许多最珍贵的金虫的希望已经成真 - 但不是，唉，最终对他们来说很重要：价格急剧上升，让它回到纪录的境内。

10月初的黄金的COMEX前期期货合约在10月初达到1,800美元，在再次下降之前，贬低了彼巴尔斯的希望它将上升到2011年最高的价格超过1,912美元。周一的纽约午餐时间交易是1,730美元。最近的绩效是否应该使机构投资者在未来的光泽威胁？亚博赞助欧冠

The run of favorable news for gold bugs began in August when Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), stoked inflationary fears by outlining his outright monetary transactions program to buy the sovereign bonds of troubled member states where necessary. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke’s September announcement of a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) — an injection of another $40 billion into the economy each month — added inflationary pressure to the U.S. economy.

The reelection of Barack Obama as U.S. president on November 6 provided further impetus for gold, by increasing the chances that Bernanke can continue with ultra-loose monetary policy for longer. Mitt Romney, the Republican challenger and a monetary-policy hawk in comparison with Obama, was set to replace Bernanke with an inflation hawk after the chairman’s term in office expired in January 2014.

These three factors boosted gold — but not as much as bulls had hoped, given past surges in the price in response to signs that inflation might dilute the real value of the dollar and the euro.

黄金相当悄悄反弹的一个论点是，虽然来自发达国家的潜在通胀新闻正在推动黄金金属，但中国的基本面差。去年，中间王国被认为永远通过超越印度来改变市场，成为世界上最大的黄金消费者。然而，自2003年在第三季度以来，中国的需求下降了最快的一年时间，在通胀恐惧中撤退：9月份中国消费者价格上涨达到每年1.9％，低于6.5％2011年。

Nevertheless, it is likely that inflation fears will stalk China again before long, since the country’s economic slowdown is proving short-lived.

尽管如此，黄金令人担忧的是一种越来越多的思想，就像一个具有身份危机的少年，它的行为正在变得不可预测。

从历史上看，由于其4,000岁的血统作为价值储存，金属是部分地升起的令人反应的恐惧。然而，它在资本市场的风险厌恶期间也上升了 - 当机构投资者具有强大的即将发生的灾难感时，即使灾难的性质不一定是通货膨胀，也是如此。亚博赞助欧冠The explanation for gold’s rise during crises of every shape and hue is as circular as a gold ring, but none the less powerful for that: investors buy gold in the assurance that it will rise during a crisis, and it rises because investors always buy gold during a crisis.

黄金的问题是，这种循环论点最近已经破裂了。

The looming U.S. fiscal cliff — the tax increases and spending cuts due to come into effect in January unless politicians strike a deal — has the same timbre as other fiscal crises in other major economies which have boosted gold purchases in the past (though the effect of going over the cliff would be deflationary). However, Edel Tully, precious metals strategist at UBS in London, notes: “The expectation of political posturing surrounding the fiscal cliff is not [yet] providing the ingredient for the next rush of buying.” Tully argues that some of this correlation stems from “gold’s still positive correlation with risk.” She concludes, “Quite clearly gold hasn’t separated itself enough from the risk crowd.”

This view is supported by statistical research from HSBC, which shows that gold has been moderately positively correlated with risk-on assets over the past 20 weeks.

Nomura remains bullish about gold — forecasting a price of $2,100 at the end of next year, because of loose monetary policy. However, it notes: “We acknowledge that gold’s correlation to risk can be variable.” It is, in other words, not reliable a risk-off asset at the moment.

许多分析师credit the new link between gold and risk-on assets to the increasingly cross-asset nature of investment. Macro funds are buying the full gamut of different assets, including equities and commodities. At moments of market panic when most asset prices are falling, they find themselves forced to meet funding needs by selling classic risk-off investments such as gold on the same days as classic risk-on investments such as equities. Partly because of this trend, in terms of short-term, day-to-day trading, gold’s safe-haven status has become tenuous indeed.

但虽然黄金最近的日常不可预测性反对它，但它可能因全球金融系统的长期不可预测性而节省。

The low inflation that prevailed in developed economies for much of the 1990s and 2000s appeared to sound the death knell for gold. Much of the price stability can be credited to the relative independence given to central banks, which remained largely free from government pressure to cut rates to meet political ends.

Over the coming years, however, the temptation among governments to interfere in central banks’ operations in order to encourage higher inflation may become irresistible, as they try to inflate away their high debts.

It may not even require much government interference before central banks start pursuing more inflationary policies. Announcing QE3 in September, Bernanke said he would continue pumping money into the economy until the labor market improved. Many analysts think the “neutral” unemployment rate in the U.S. — the rate below which inflation starts to build up because of skills shortages — has risen in recent years. If true, that means the inflationary price tag for improving the labor market will be higher than before — a promising scenario for gold, at least in the traditional sense.