Market Reacts Calmly to Job Numbers in Anticipation of QE3

The proportion of Americans either in a job or looking for one has fallen to its lowest rate in 31 years, raising questions about the long-term health of the U.S. labor market.

The drop in the participation rate threatens to restrict the underlying growth of the U.S. economy. This would hit corporate earnings and, by slowing increases in tax revenue, impair the Treasury’s ability to service its debt burden.

劳工统计局周五表示，参与率下降至63.5％，周五 - 本月下跌0.2个百分点，在经济衰退开始之前，本月初点下跌近3个百分点低于2007年。自1981年以来的速度是最低的。非农工资单增加了96,000 - 远低于125,000的共识估计。

分析师归咎于劳动力市场的稳定下降，部分原因是由于美国经济持续缓慢的沮丧，美国人的未经失业前景的沮丧感。这促使许多人完全辍学。

随着寻求工作的人数减少，经济在没有过热的情况下增长的能力受到限制，因为池可以缩小池可以增加哪些新工人的讨价还价权。这推动了工资和最终消费者价格的通胀。更糟糕的情况是，公司可能会遏制计划扩大产出，因为他们找不到所需的工人。

长期失业率的上升也是worrying because the longer people are out of work the more likely they are to give up seeking it. There is a risk, therefore, that the rise in long-term joblessness could feed through into a further reduction in the participation rate.

Unemployed people had been jobless for an average of 39 weeks in August, according to the Bureau — a broadly stable figure over the past year but more than double the 16-week average at the beginning of 2007.

分析师希望这种就业统计数据进行双重恶化 - 参与和延伸失业的升级 - 将在很大程度上证明，当经济恢复强劲增长时，大部分临时，逆转。

联邦储备董事长Ben Bernanke今年早些时候表示，“过去二十年来似乎是，结构因素一直负责长期失业率的增加。”他说，“全球化，技术变革和低技能制造业损失等因素”等因素可能会降低某些工人群体的就业能力和盈利潜力。“这些趋势可能导致技能不匹配，其中成千上万的工人在美国不再存在的重工业，但谁无法占用涉及计算机的工作。

伯南克补充道，“然而，尽管在长期来说，结构变化无疑是重要的，但我对研究的阅读是，最近，近期长期失业率急剧增加的适度部分是由于持续的结构因素。”

进一步的可能性是，劳动力市场的参与和长期失业率上升确实是周期性的，但将变成持续的结构问题。在发达经济体之前的衰退中的研究表明，他们可以在劳动力上留下永久性疤痕，提高“中立”失业率 - 由于劳动力短缺，通货膨胀率开始上涨的速度下降。这是因为经济衰退投入长期失业的人随着时间的推移而变得较低：他们的技能已经过时，他们更有可能遭受心理和身体健康问题。

Michael Hood, institutional market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York, said: “It’s reasonable to think that the neutral unemployment rate has risen some, probably because of a combination of factors, including skill mismatches and the capacity destruction inherent in long-term unemployment. Long-term unemployment seems like the biggest threat.”

“Capacity destruction” is the process by which the size of the available labor force — as measured in the participation rate, for example — is reduced by the scarring effect of unemployment.

然而，引擎盖补充说：“工资通胀看起来像一个远远景观，失业率超过8％。”8月失业率为8.1％，远高于4.4％的预压缩，虽然该月下降了0.2个百分点 - 反映了参与率下降。根据主席团的说法，每小时收入为1.7％，远低于长期平均率。

Despite these potential long-term dangers, U.S. equity markets were relatively relaxed about Friday’s disappointing jobs numbers, because investors believe a worsening employment backdrop increases the chances that the Federal Reserve will announce a third round of quantitative easing after its Thursday monetary policy meeting. Last week Bernanke described “the stagnation of the labor market” as “a grave concern.” The S&P 500 was up 0.3 percent on the day at 1,437 in lunchtime trading.