Good News on Euro Zone Debt Masks Gloomy Forecasts

Amid Thursday’s rejoicing in financial markets after the European Central Bank (ECB) promised potentially unlimited purchases of euro zone debt, few people noticed the specter at the feast: the ECB’s new and distinctly gloomy forecast for the euro zone economy.

The yields on Spanish and Italian bonds fell sharply, with euro zone equities surging higher, after ECB president Mario Draghi laid out plans to buy the short-term bonds of troubled member states deemed at risk of falling out of the euro zone.

新的“直接货币事务”(OMT)食物ram, which will cover bonds of up to three years’ maturity, aims “to address severe distortions in government bond markets” and, “in particular, unfounded fears on the part of investors of the reversibility of the euro.” Euro reversibility refers to the break-up of the euro zone.

这意味着购买尽可能多的债券，以消除机构投资者对欧洲区域成员国的政府债券的需求的溢价所必需的，要求担心欧元区突破，他们发现债券重新调整较弱的货币。亚博赞助欧冠

欧洲央行透露了该计划的目标率 - 例如购买西班牙语两年，例如，如果他们上升到3％以上，那么任何速率都反映了Draghi正在打击的“欧元可逆性”而不是正常的违约风险。

此外，Draghi强调新计划下的任何购买都受到欧元区机构的“严格有效的条件”。他甚至将防止推卸的额外预防措施，寻求作为遵守监视器征收国际货币基金组织。同意任何特定国家的所有这些可能需要数月的条款 - 在哪个阶段市场可能会升高欧元区状态的产量，陷入困境。这表明OMT将使各国成为一个呼吸空间，但也许这将只有在他们已经开始过度通气后才能发生。

因此，OMT的好处是含糊不清的。然而，欧洲央行对经济的新预测是明确的糟糕。

Its June forecast indicated either a fall or a modest rise in euro zone output this year and at worst zero growth next year. However, the new estimate expects a modest fall in output at best for 2012, and a possible fall for 2013 — though the midpoint of next year's forecast is 0.5 percent. Draghi added that the risks to the economic outlook were “on the downside”, because of “the potential spillover to the euro area real economy” from the currency union’s debt crisis.

新的阴沉预后已经铸造了第一云的全新OMT的前景，因为弱经济增长或更糟的弱势将使会员国更加努力，以满足债券购买返回的任何艰难条件。

Draghi给出了这些条件可能在新闻发布会上的味道，称“为了恢复信心”，欧元区政策制定者“需要推进”财政整合“和”结构改革以提升“竞争力。”这包括减少预算赤字，以及使劳动力市场更加灵活的改革 - 德拉奇经常提出的问题。

詹妮弗麦克克诺德的资本经济学，一个独立的宏观经济咨询，“银行仍然没有准备为各国政府为他们工作，并且仍然是他们是否准备做他们所需要的问题。”

Troubled euro zone states will certainly think twice before taking up Draghi’s offer: Trimming a fiscal deficit is notoriously hard against a background of declining output, because it tends to cut output still further. This creates a vicious circle, where government spending has to be reduced more as well, to meet the likely drop in tax revenue that usually accompanies falling gross domestic product.

当产出萎缩时，结构改革也难以实施 - 部分原因是，如希腊和西班牙连续主管部门的不受欢迎，惨地经济都会减少对各国政府的信任，并以任何努力执行的政策。此外，选民倾向于责备经济下降的结构改革 - 并且在短期内，它们可能是部分权利。创造更灵活的劳动力市场倾向于长期促进就业，因为人们更容易开火，雇主不愿意雇用。然而，在经济衰退期间，雇主可以完成射击步骤，但在展望改善之前，不得招聘。

夜间情景并不是欧洲央行将拒绝购买陷入困境的国家的债券。该国也不拒绝实施改革以回报。相反，该国开始改革的道路，以回报欧洲央行援助，然后发现自己无法尽可能多地完成欧洲央行，要么是因为它的产出正在崩溃，或者因为它的选民不会打球。在这一点，欧洲央行要么将插头拉开，其市场援助 - 将受影响的会员州的债券市场推入远远困难的危机，或者作为经济和财政审慎的严格警察的信誉。

Despite these potential problems, however, the market responded enthusiastically to the new ECB program. The yield on Spanish two-years fell 13 basis points (bp) to 2.97 percent, with 10-year rates plummeting 36bp to 6.06 percent. The Eurofirst 300 index of euro zone equities ended the day 2.4 percent higher at 1,105.