J.P. Morgan在美国股权研究中是1号

AART 2012.全美研究团队 Hall of Fame2012年10月15日全美销售团队october 16, 2012The All-America Trading Teamoctober 16, 2012美国顶级公司访问​​提供商2012年10月18日

谈论混合信号。股市上个月飙升，上个月在联邦储备委员会主席本伯南克介绍了一个开放式第三轮定量宽松的宽松，其中，联邦政府每月承诺在美国失业局提高到美国抵押贷款支持的400亿美元。道琼斯工业平均水平在宣布当天跃升了200多分，标准普尔500指数在五年内击中其最高水平，纳斯达克综合指数自2000年11月以来其最佳关闭。

By the end of the month, however, the rally had fizzled. September’s final days saw stocks sustain their worst weekly declines in months, dragged down by disappointing news: The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of only 1.3 percent in the second quarter, down from the agency’s earlier estimate of 1.7 percent. The Institute for Supply Management–Chicago’s business barometer logged its first monthly decline since 2009, signaling a slowdown in regional manufacturing. And Peoria, Illinois–based heavy-machinery manufacturer Caterpillar, a bellwether for global economic growth, slashed its guidance — for 2015.

但根据会议委员会的说法，消费者信心意外地飙升，达到了自2月以来的最高水平。短短一个月前，基于纽约的数据分析公司的消费者信心指数沉入了今年最低点的沉没。

这样动荡的经济指标,它是hardly surprising that many investors have adopted a wait-and-see attitude. “Equity trading volumes are being constrained by a combination of factors that all share a single symptom: uncertainty,” explains Stephen Penwell, director of U.S. equity research at Morgan Stanley. He cites a number of issues — at home and abroad — that are weighing on portfolio managers’ minds. Domestic concerns include next month’s presidential and congressional elections, the state of the economy and the so-called fiscal cliff of some $700 billion in spending cuts and tax increases set to take effect after year-end. Foreign worries include the slowdown in China’s real gross domestic product growth and Europe’s ongoing sovereign debt crisis.

Winners in 在今年的全美研究团队的排名第一的分析师的聚光灯由下面的照片中的特点。点击其中一个图像来了解有关该分析师的更多信息。
安德鲁 拉扎尔	安德鲁 Steinerman	查尔斯 格罗姆
Christopher Senyek.	大卫 阿德尔曼	杰弗里 藜
马修 O'Connor.	Meredith 阿德勒	迈克尔 Weinstein
	桑杰 Sakhrani.

“投资者对2013年或2014年的盈利没有真正的定罪，他们有更难的时间试图弄清楚哪种赚来的盈利，”Penwell说。“因此，很多客户和很多客户的现金正在坐在场边，等待事情清楚地改善或清楚地变得更糟。”

那会是什么时候？“不幸的是，我们的观点是，不确定的是，不确定的日历年或仅仅是按照选举结果的清晰来解决，”他指出。

“股权情绪目前处于27年的低点，创建了我们在我们数据历史中看到的债券的标准普尔500指数最广泛的折扣，”美国银行Merrill Lynch Americas股权研究负责人Brett Hodess Brett Hodess。“周转将采取超过美联储的持续贸易言论;有关持续收益增长的信心会增加它。“

Such reassurance may be in short supply these days — but more is coming, according to Noelle Grainger, Hodess’s counterpart at J.P. Morgan. “Don’t fight the Fed,” she quips. “We believe that the recent strength in the equity markets has legs, as the policy response to sluggish global economies has been stronger than expected. The macro picture appears set to turn more positive as the Fed’s quantitative easing is added to further Chinese stimulus and an improvement in financial conditions in Europe.”

有一件事是肯定的：直到市场稳定，金钱经理将严重依赖于越来越不断变化的经济景观的洞察力和信息的卖方xinyabo体育app 。该公司能够提供投资者需求的指导的最佳工作是J.P. Morgan，其中第三届直接达到全美xinyabo体育app 团队，亚博赞助欧冠机构投资者annual ranking of the U.S.’s most highly valued equity analysts. The bank adds three positions, for a total of 43, and widens its lead over second-place Barclays, which returns with 39 positions. BofA Merrill, which tied with Barclays last year, slips to third after losing five spots, leaving it with 34. Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank Securities leap to fourth and fifth place, respectively, after picking up seven positions each. The former, with 33 total, rises from No. 6; the latter, with 32, bolts from eighth place. Survey results reflect the opinions of nearly 3,300 individuals at some 950 buy-side institutions that manage an estimated $9.93 trillion in U.S. equities, or 77.4 percent of the $12.83 trillion market capitalization of the MSCI U.S. index at the time of polling.

J.P. Morgan anticipates what it calls a melt-up ahead of the elections, Grainger says, based on further global economic stabilization, accommodative central bankers, strong relative-value arguments and “underinvestment by active managers and hedge funds, resulting in continued beta chase.”

Last month the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist, Thomas Lee, raised his short-term target for the S&P 500 by 20 points, expecting the benchmark to reach 1,495 by November 6. (The index stood at 1,440.67 at the end of September.) “Following Election Day, he sees the risk of markets drifting lower into year-end if President Obama is reelected, which is his base case, and thus he maintains a 1,430 year-end target,” Grainger says. “We think that investors are likely to respond more positively to a win by [Republican challenger Mitt] Romney, and we see upside well beyond our 1,430 target — toward 1,500 to 1,550 — in the event of a Romney win.”

许多民意调查显示候选人在彼此的几个百分点中 - 井内的每项民意调查的错误边缘 - 预测任何程度的定罪都是不可能的。赢家甚至可能都不重要。“对于大多数投资者来说，它不是关于这个人或党，而是政策，”美国股权xinyabo体育app 总监斯图文瓦尔德说。“许多人将有看法投资者情绪如何与奥巴马胜利或罗姆尼胜利转变，但我们认为三件事很重要：澄清，解决缺陷和实现妥协。”

Left to right: Meredith Adler (Barclays); Jeffrey deGraaf (Renaissance Macro Research); 查尔斯格罗姆(Deutsche Bank Securities)

一旦结果进入，他补充说，处理赤字将采取中心阶段。“显然，各方对如何最好地做到这一点有所不同，但由于两党可能会控制总统和两个房屋，我们预计会有妥协才能完成一笔交易，”波尔德说。

Or the situation could worsen given the increasing polarization of the parties, according to BofA Merrill’s Hodess. “Neither party appears positioned to take the 60-seat Senate majority required to block a filibuster, which could increase the difficulty for the majority party to push legislation through,” he says. “If one party can achieve veto-proof majorities, there may be a higher chance that Congress would stop kicking the can down the road — which is at least a start.”

xinyabo体育app 董事持有很少希望，政策制定者将在选举之前解决财政悬崖问题 - 其中一些人开发了假设美国的模型。“Our analysis suggests a 15 percent chance of actually falling off the fiscal cliff — that is, expiring tax provisions plus sequestration push the U.S. economy into recession in the first half of next year,” says Grainger, noting that it could take up to six months for legislators to come to terms, a delay that would result in a weaker second-half bounce and full-year growth of only 0.2 percent. “Interestingly, we think that the likelihood is similar regardless of who takes the White House. Of course, this is an adverse scenario for risky assets, and we see the downside for the S&P 500 at around 1,100.”

更有可能的情景，J.P. Morgan队已经指定了65％至70％的概率，是跛脚鸭国会将授予六个月的延长，并通过支出削减和税收徒步旅行来实现条款。“在这种情况下，随着投资者担心僵局，我们将寻找市场疲软，预期的标准普尔低1,300至1,350，”格劳恩说。分析师认为，目前的大会将达到赤字减少协议，不超过20％的机会。

Economists at BofA Merrill have formulated a model that assumes such issues as the alternative minimum tax, physician reimbursement rates under Medicare and “the 50 or so tax breaks that are patched every year all will be extended for another year,” Hodess says. “In contrast, the payroll tax cut, extended unemployment benefits and some smaller and/or less contentious items will likely be allowed to expire — and some, but not all, of the discretionary cuts under the debt ceiling agreement will likely be implemented.”

Deutsche Bank的Pollard认为有乐观的原因。“我们认为预算僵局将在选举之前被打破，但我们的基线观点是将达成协议，”他维持。“尽管有不同的意见，但两党显然有一些共同的基础，建立并达成协议。”

In the meantime, savvy investors can turn uncertainty to their advantage, according to Christopher Senyek, who captures first place in Accounting & Tax Policy for a fourth consecutive year. The Wolfe Trahan & Co. analyst predicts that the lame-duck session of Congress will reach some sort of deal to extend current tax rates for at least a few months and possibly for two years. But many companies won’t wait for Congress to act and instead will announce special dividends before the end of December to lock in current tax rates.

“We’re bulls on the structural case for dividend investing and expect more companies to initiate dividends and increase payouts once tax policy uncertainty wanes at the end of this year,” Senyek explains. “Historically, we’ve found that the share prices of companies initiating dividends and increasing dividends have provided material total returns and generated overall stock market outperformance.”

桑杰Sakhrani.那who debuted as a runner-up in Consumer Finance in 2011 and vaults to the top of the sector this year, also believes that now is a good time to buy, albeit for a different reason. “Valuations support an overweight bias for most of the companies we follow in the cards and payments industry,” the Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst contends. “Despite the weak macro backdrop, companies in our coverage universe have seen decent growth, which is certainly a challenge to find in the broader financial services industry.”

相对o Sakhrani引用了几个原因utperformance. “The protracted recession flushed out much of the adverse selection in card portfolios, and the composition today is skewed toward consumers with stronger credit profiles,” he says. Plus, “companies we follow are taking market share from weaker financial services players, and their capital levels are very strong, so they are in a position to be relatively more aggressive toward growth and/or capital management.”

As for the election, Sakhrani doesn’t believe it will have much of an impact on his sector. More worrisome is the fiscal cliff, especially with the holiday shopping season drawing near. “We believe there could be an implication to spending, particularly among moreaffluent, higher-income-generating consumers, who have been a large contributor to consumer spending growth,” he says.

All-America Research Team Hall of Famer Meredith Adler, who takes the top spot in Retailing/Food & Drug Chains for an 11th consecutive year, says it is important to note that wealth distinction. “‘The consumer’ is not just one group but consists of multiple groups — some of which are still struggling financially,” she says. “About 20 percent of U.S. households receive government support to buy food. In part that’s because the eligibility requirements have been lowered, but mostly it reflects great need by many families.”

巴克莱xinyabo体育app 人员观察，虽然近期消费者信心最近，但这组人民的季节性消费可能是有限的。对于其他人来说，较高的乐观级别“是假日支出的积极信号 - 虽然我们在过去一年中看到的是消费者在他们想要花费时选择时代，所以销售从一周到一周开始挥发。”

adler封面的大多数公司 - 药店，超市和小型零售商 - 服务所有人口组，但许多商店都位于收入仍然沮丧的地区，所以“他们不会看到这个假期的恢复，”她说。“我们推荐了其中一些公司 - 美元商店，特别是 - 因为它们具有稳定的收益和现金流量模式以及继续平方英尺的增长。”但是，她建议谨慎。“美元商店仍然是一个相对不成熟的概念，”她解释道。“对于想要更多Beta的投资者，我的股票通常不是一个不错的选择。”

Deutsche Bank’s Charles Grom, a runner-up in Retailing/Food & Drug Chains and the No. 1 analyst in Retailing/Broadlines & Department Stores, says money managers’ paramount concern should be to align themselves with retailers that have structurally stronger business models and those that operate in sectors with favorable headwinds.

“我确实相信，大多数消费者对他们的个人家庭情况有更好的感觉 - 今天也许比过去几年的任何时候都更好，”他说。“美国消费者持续持续势头，特别是在全部重要的假期领先，当许多零售商产生超过50％的年度销售时。”

Based on recent brisk back-to-school revenues — there is a 90 percent correlation between the two shopping seasons, Grom says — “we would expect holiday sales to rise 3 to 5 percent over last year, and potentially better if today’s housing market rebound continues.”

Many economic observers believe it will. “Clearly, the consensus in the market is that QE3 is constructive for risk assets, and the MBS purchases will support a recovery in the housing market,” observes Deutsche’s Pollard. “Confidence and conviction in the recovery take time, and given how deep this recession was and how tepid the recovery has been, it is playing out rather slowly.”

Bofa Merrill的Hodess说，几年来，几年。“许多评论员正在对美联储的新政策视为另一个量化的宽松QE3。我们不同意，“他说。“我们认为这是QE3，QE4，也许QE5合并。美联储承诺继续购买资产，直到劳动力市场大幅提高。在我们看来，这意味着直到完全就业在地平线上。鉴于我们的增长疲软预测，我们估计这意味着两年的购买计划。“

But patience will be rewarded, according to J.P. Morgan’s Grainger. “We are likely at the front end of a three- to five-year up-cycle in residential construction, with an associated investment opportunity in the U.S. housing food chain that sees these stocks gaining 30 to 200 percent relative to the S&P 500,” she says. • •