Mario Draghi的月度货币政策新闻发布会周四举行,作为一个有用的排练,因为它可能是一个有可能是一个明显的神经 - 詹林经验 - 他的10月24日在德国议会面前的外表,向立法者放心他的新债券购买计划。
大部分德国机构都反对了彻底的货币交易(OMT)计划。根据主动性,欧洲央行(欧洲央行)将购买欧洲稳定机制援助援助援助,欧元区救援基金的债务债券,以换取严格的紧缩和改革政策。
德国和其他地方的批评者有两个主要反对意见。
The first — that the creation of new money to buy these bonds could, gradually but inexorably, create hyperinflation and render the euro worthless — is understandable in a country that suffered this fate in the 1920s. The 1920s crisis was a repeat — in a more extreme form — of the inflation crisis of the 1760s, when Frederick the Great of Prussia debased the currency to pay for the Seven Years War. Breakneck inflation is a deep-rooted fear.
Draghi没有直接进入辩论是否涉及增加货币基础的增加,以增加通货膨胀。然而,他对欧元区经济前景的阴郁评估给那些争论的人给了那些争论的人,尽管在考虑欧元区经济的贫困状态时有很多东西可以担心,但失控的通货膨胀不是其中之一。
德拉奇表示,他预计经济活动“在近期仍然弱势,此后只逐步恢复。”他补充说,通货膨胀 - 目前的价格为2.7% - 将其占据高于欧洲央行可接受的2% - 明年下降至2%低于2%。此外,如果“金融市场紧张局势”遭受比预期更难的欧元区经济增长,那么它可能比预期的预期更低。因此,德国噩梦场景的失控通货膨胀是可以理解但不太可能的。
第二个伟大的德国噩梦是,OMT将近于持续侵害国家经济的融资。这既可以理解,也是可行的。Draghi的一致线路对于OMT和以前的紧急债券购买行动,这一直是这样的支持只会作为财政状况和自由市场改革的奖励。
On Thursday he insisted it was “essential that governments continue to implement the necessary steps to reduce both fiscal and structural imbalances and proceed with financial sector restructuring measures.” Moreover, the ECB would exit OMT programs not only “once their objectives have been achieved,” but also “when there is a failure to comply with a program” — abandoning bond purchases if countries do not stick to their side of the bargain.
他的维护者认为,这表明这呈现出严格和谨慎的道德风险感。在他们的眼中,德拉奇始终需要紧缩的好理由,让国家经济靠近,但没有结束,分裂线将艰难的经济崩溃分开。他希望尽可能少地帮助各国政府,以防止他们相信他们可以在欧洲央行援助中永远活着,而无需将房屋置于秩序。因此,Draghi通过这一估计,欧洲的财政警察成为。
然而,这项政策的两种可能的批评以及对机构投资者的重要意义。亚博赞助欧冠
The first is that he is being too strict and that this strict policy is dooming financial markets for perhaps the rest of the decade to the regular bouts of panic and euphoria that have governed them since the euro zone crisis began last year. This is predicated on two propositions. One is that the peripheral economies can endure the extreme fiscal detox that the ECB prescribes. The other is that, should a government apply for OMT assistance, Draghi will never turn off the tap. As a result of these doubts, critics say, investors will continue to price in a hefty risk premium on peripheral bonds.
第二种可能的批评是朝向的直径:德拉奇正在太善良,因为欧元区政府的欧洲政府债券较多,欧洲央行将这项政策提高了这项政策时越大危机。
纽约的Penso顾问负责人Aribergmann建议尾巴风险事件的机构投资者,说,如果Draghi同意与西班牙的直接货币交易计划亚博赞助欧冠 - 分析师作为最可能的申请人看到 - “他已经推迟了这一天考虑一段时间,但风险更大。“
虽然其他人可能会比较龙掌到一位财政警察,但伯格曼将欧洲央行描述为“欧洲垃圾罐 - 购买债券没有其他人想要”。他认为,这将这些欧元区政府置于束缚中的垃圾。
“Let’s assume Spain will not be able to stand by its commitments agreed with the ECB under the OMT program, perhaps because social unrest prevents this,” says Bergmann. “If the ECB stops buying and decides to sell, Spain will not be able to fund itself” — because no investor will be prepared to step into a bond market, which the ECB itself has abandoned. Branded with the imprimatur of Draghi's disapproval, the Spanish sovereign market would collapse. The outcome would be either a Spanish default or a redenomination of Spanish sovereign bonds with Spain leaving the euro zone — and an economic crisis across the euro zone that would hit Germany too.
Draghi毫无疑问思考他对此和其他同样棘手的问题的答复,因为他为三周时间准备他的议会烧烤。他的回应将被体制投资者紧密地观看,因为它将被焦急的德国公众所在。亚博赞助欧冠