Could the New Zealand dollar provide an attractive alternative commodity play to the Australian dollar, as fears multiply that the Chinese economic slowdown will hit commodity markets and send the Australian currency plunging?
The Australian dollar, or aussie, has served over the past decade as the ultimate commodity currency — rising and falling in line with expectations about the price of natural resources. These have in turn been dependent largely on expectations about China, the source of much of the increase in global commodity demand. Because Australia’s economy is based largely on natural resource exports, high Chinese economic growth has tended to foster high Australian economic growth — prompting the aussie to double in value against the U.S. dollar since 2001, and to put in strong rises against other global currencies.
然而，现在，中国的经济模式开始看起来明显吱吱作响。中国官方国内生产总值（GDP）增长在三年内缓慢缓慢，许多经济学家认为即使这种更适中的增加率也是不可持续的。官方中国官方增长的长期可能是永久性的，从近年来的8％的率可能对澳大利亚产生严重影响。
表面上，新西兰元或猕猴桃，陷入了同样的问题。就像澳大利亚一样，由于自然资源出口的重要性，被视为商品货币。
至关重要的是,然而,新西兰的出口混合订单les apart from its neighbor’s: although it has benefited from a resource boom over the past decade, it is a very different boom from that which has boosted Australia’s export revenue. Australia’s is based heavily on commodities that are entirely or largely industrial, such as iron ore and coal. These have benefited greatly from China’s rather unbalanced economic growth, tilted greatly towards the construction of infrastructure. Heavy Chinese demand for such commodities means that about 27 percent of Australian goods exports are destined for the country, making China Australia’s biggest overseas client by far. By contrast, three quarters of New Zealand’s resource exports are agricultural — and about half of these are dairy. New Zealand’s export prospects are therefore dictated largely by population rises across much of the world — creating about 80 million new potential clients a year on a net basis. A significant portion of the expansion in demand for dairy comes from China, as an ever larger middle class develops western tastes; however, the growth in demand for New Zealand agricultural products remains more broad-based than demand for Australia’s hard commodities — a figure allowing New Zealand to cope with a Chinese downturn more easily. Reinforcing this point, China accounts for only 11 percent of New Zealand goods exports, leaving it much less exposed than its Antipodean neighbor. New Zealand is, therefore, less reliant both on China in and on the highly volatile global industrial cycle.
此外，中国衰退的精确性质可能对新西兰的商品组合效果较小而不是澳大利亚。通过政策无所作为，中国政府允许减速，因为它在长期以来，在中国努力创造更加平衡的增长，通过关闭投资支出的高度增加之间的历史差距，较小的个人消费增加。前吸收工业品;后者可能会使那些来自海外的农产品更加异落，更具吸引力，而不是米饭等基本钉书针。
“我们预计澳元相对于新西兰元削弱，因为澳大利亚在新西兰的工业商品市场上有更多的暴露，”摩根斯坦利在最近的货币票据中说。“我们预计工业和农产品价格将分歧。”
但是，没有货币是纯粹的全球商品发挥作用，因为它不能孤立于国内市场。抛开新西兰的资源曝光，国内情况可能对货币施加向上或向下压力吗？
Speculation has proved unfounded that the new governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Graeme Wheeler, might use his first interest rate meeting last Thursday to take a dovish line, preparing the market for an interest rate cut. The New Zealand economy remains strong by the current standards of developed economies, with the International Monetary Fund this month predicting GDP growth of 2.2 percent for 2012. Regardless of whatever international commodity price trends might be, the country is supported by a robust housing market and reconstruction spending after the 2011 earthquake on South Island.
澳大利亚保留了一个优势：3.25％，其央行汇率为新西兰高于75个基点。然而，这可能不会是一个更长的优势。Nomura预计澳大利亚的储备银行在11月份会议上连续第二个月削减利率，以回应“全球展望较弱”。延续的速度削减可以让澳大利亚易受占据在寻求体面收益率的澳大利亚的热门资金的流出，这在美国和大部分欧洲难以难以捉摸。
然而，在新西兰元投资的情况下也有风险。
Judging by figures from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development showing purchasing power parity — the amount of goods and services that can be bought with $100 in New Zealand, compared with the U.S. — it is about 25 percent overvalued, at a closing price for the week ending October 26 of $0.821. However, this compares with a much higher 60 percent for Australia’s overvaluation against the greenback, on the same basis.
此外，猕猴桃保留了所有商品货币共有的高风险，这引发了基本资源的高波动性。当联合国粮食和农业组织的数据的数据，当联合国粮食和农业组织的数据表示，当全球商品价格崩溃后，乳制品商品不得在2008年至2009年间达到趋势。在这些和其他资源的价格下降，猕猴桃从2008年初的2009年初到2009年初的谷底沉没了40％，迅速弥补了大部分失落的地面。目前对美国美元兑美国美元兑美国美元恢复了丢失的地面，目前上涨2.7％，然后在5月份击中深谷之后恢复失去的地面。
The New Zealand dollar has, however, an attractive allure, as one of only a few truly liquid currencies to offer a strong exposure to agricultural commodities. It encapsulates, therefore, the hopes and fears about global food consumption for the next decade — a topic which could become almost as important to institutional investors as to ordinary consumers.