Optimistic About the Economy, Less So About Politics

我最近 - 在飓风桑迪到达之前 - 在华盛顿州的24小时花费了一个快速的24小时。在一年左右的第一次，我对我听到的大部分听到的东西留下了一点。

在过去12个月的大部分月份，在Goldman Sachs资产管理中，由于三部队的结合：房屋市场的转变，我们一直持乐观态度。国内能源故事显着;以及美国制造业竞争力的可能复兴的开始。在许多我们常规的CIO会议电话中，我们常常想知道将这些部队转化为更强大的美国GDP增长和阳性振动所需的内容。通常是我们美国股权投资组合管理人员与企业首席执行官及其团队的互动提供的答案与华盛顿有关的是关于监管问题和未来税收政策的不确定性。在此背景下，我们思考选举本身的重要性在美国和世界其他地区的后果方面。

At one of our most recent calls, one of the fixed-income portfolio managers described the fiscal cliff issue as probably not too dissimilar to that of the Y2K issue back in the build up to 2000, in so far that all that worry and fear led to not much in the end. I mentioned this to one seasoned U.S. political figure on my trip, and his answer was as amusing and interesting as the analogy itself, suggesting that the only reason Y2K was a nonissue is because efforts undertaken to ensure so. Let’s hope this is the case with the fiscal challenges.

On the election outcome, I have returned assuming the most narrow of victories for the incumbent but with no real confidence in this view, and more broadly of the judgement that the electorate is not going to give a strong mandate to either. And in any case, unless there are big shifts in Congress, it is not clear that the new president will have the freedom for much away from them. A narrow victory for President Obama would seem to be, at least superficially, the more complicated of the outcomes, as a repeat of the policy stalemates of the past couple of years would probably ensue unless we see a very different Obama in a second term. But I am not so convinced that a narrow Romney victory leads to a dramatically different path unless we get a notable shift to the Republicans in the Senate too.

对于选民来说这一切都很困难的原因之一就回到同样的问题，政治家正在努力：赤字问题正在躲避潜在的美国梦，特别是与抓住媒体的政党的更自主派翅膀关注问题。美国人民是否希望更高的永久性税收，以帮助支付更多政府（其中有利于希望确保更好，更成功的政府支持）？或者人们想要更少的政府，最终征收税收减去税务以及所有的问题？毫不奇怪，3亿美国公民似乎有些分裂 - 或者更准确，关键的边际国家战场似乎是。在这个背景下，胜利似乎是面对财政悬崖上凌乱妥协的挑战，以避免急剧放缓的后果，同时保持某种财政信誉。

我自己的金融市场经验导致我想知道没有压力来自金融市场，政策制定者可以自愿提出所需的内容。自1982年开始以来，我从生活中始于各种全球活动，我已经观察到政府很少有没有迫使他们迫使他们的艰难的财政选择。In this regard, I also find myself thinking that while it has been fashionable and understandable for many U.S. policymakers to worry about the potential spillovers from the euro zone crisis in 2012, it is not out of the bounds of possibility that if the Europeans ever solved their crisis this might result in closer global inspection of what is going on in U.S. fiscal affairs. Oddly, if the German elections in the autumn of 2013 leave the future of EMU with a clearer, more credible path, it may force the U.S. to face tougher choices (assuming that the underlying fiscal issues have not been dealt with by then).

There are two other big economic policy issues looming from the election: China and the stance of the broad Federal Reserve monetary policy framework. If Romney were to emerge as the next president, he has recently reiterated an intention to declare China as a currency manipulator. One wonders how he could shift from such a stance, as it seems not to be especially wise. Given the considerable adjustments taking hold in China — including a slower, better balance of growth — it seems inappropriate for an elevated degree of pressure from outside. Not least because there are growing signs that the RMB might not be so undervalued anymore. Given the strong rise of exports that the U.S. is enjoying, including to China, what is the benefit of such a stance? It might play well in marginal election battlefields, but it doesn’t make economic sense.

As for the Fed, Romney has also made it clear that he is not a supporter of Ben Bernanke’s stance on unconventional monetary policies, and appears to want to nominate a new chairperson who would take the Fed away from such laxity. With any luck, the positive private sector forces I mentioned earlier will remain sufficiently robust to overcome the consequences of post-election fiscal issues, and if so, it might be the case that the Fed chooses to shift away from its current stance anyway. But in the event that the economy will not be so robust, a new Fed leader probably wouldn’t take too kindly in such a strong outside view as to how they should or shouldn’t determine their monetary policy.

将这些问题转化为金融市场，我们发现自己在GSAM认为，债券和货币市场的后果可能至少与股票市场的后果一样有趣。如果市场必须重新思考从美联储的政策中早期转变的想法，那么这对债券市场来说具有可能的负面影响，并且在所有可能性，支持美元。鉴于利率差异对美元对重大货币的流动的重要性，任何此类转变可能会加强若干货币。具有讽刺意味的是，这也可能导致人民币的一些力量，因为中国倾向于以贸易加权管理其货币，如果日元和欧元都削弱，这将不太可能迫使额外的人民币双边货币较低抵押兑美元汇率。

在奥巴马的回归下，这些市场问题可能有所不同，虽然当然，如果经济是继续加强，那么这将不是这种情况。

As for the equity market, because of the strong 2012 performance, our preferred long-term valuation framework suggests that U.S. equities are no longer cheap, and without the support of Fed liquidity they might have a bigger challenge appreciating in value further. In order to do so, equities will require a notable drop in the current risk premia, which can presumably only come about if a new administration succeeds in lifting the clouds hanging over business leaders. We are currently inclined to favor the view that this will happen, but it is not one that I have over confidence about and will be keeping on our toes more than usual.

有一件事是肯定的，一如既往，所有人都不会缺乏缺乏关注的问题。

Jim O'Neill is the chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management.