ESM首席律师有准备好的救助基金

Few people know the euro like Klaus Regling. As a senior official in the German Finance Ministry during the 1990s, Regling helped lay the groundwork for European economic and monetary union. Then, after a stint as managing director at hedge fund firm Moore Capital Management in London, he headed the Brussels directorate that oversees the single currency, from 2001 to 2008 leaving just before the financial crisis that would wreak havoc on the euro area.

Last month Regling, 62, took charge of the European Stability Mechanism, a new bailout fund with capital of €700 billion ($905 billion) and lending capacity of €500 billion that European Union leaders see as a fire wall to contain the blocs debt crisis. If Spain requests EU assistance soon, as most analysts expect, the ESM would be able to buy the kingdom's bond issues, while the European Central Bank could purchase short-term Spanish debt on the secondary market. Regling discussed the European debt crisis with亚博赞助欧冠International Editor Tom Buerkle during the International Monetary Fund's annual meeting in Tokyo last month.

1. How significant is the launch of the ESM?

It's an important building block in completing the euro areas institutional architecture. There's never one miracle step that solves everything, but we have come a long way. We started in March-April 2010 with the Greek program. Then we launched the European Financial Stability Facility in May-June 2010. And now we have the ESM. The advantage is it's a permanent institution. We have capital, the biggest of any international financial institution at €700 billion, of which €80 billion will be paid in. That makes the ESM more stable. Under the EFSF we relied on guarantees of the 17 euro area countries, and when one of our triple-A members is downgraded, it automatically affects the EFSF rating. For the ESM there's no longer this clear link because the €80 billion is there, cash.

2. Does the ESM have the capacity to take on both Spain and Italy?

让我们说将使用500亿欧元的ESM用于重组西班牙银行，因此将剩下4500亿欧元。特别是对于大型经济体，这将是不可能的，这些国家将完全从市场上脱离市场，就像我们用爱尔兰，葡萄牙和希腊一样。在预防安排的情况下，主要市场购买可以达到问题的50％;它可能会少，特别是如果欧洲央行介入并在二级市场延续汇率。因此，我的观点中的4500亿欧元就足够了。

3. Why should Greece adjust its economy inside monetary union rather than exiting and devaluing?

看着这两种情景的每个人都结束了它的结论，它更便宜。如果希腊叶子，生活水平看起来不会更好。这将是更糟。有一段时间可能会发生混乱。很可能是银行运行;会有资金控制。希腊离开是希腊和欧元区最昂贵的解决方案。我认为人们不会通过离开欧元来防止收入落到新的均衡。

4.欧洲何时开始又一次发展？

One has to realize that in an adjustment phase, particularly in cases where competitiveness has to be restored, GDP cannot grow because incomes have to be cut. The mistake analysts often make is to extrapolate short-term trends for years and years and say, Terrible debt dynamics; how can they ever grow out of their debt problems? But of course there will be a turning point once competitiveness is restored. We see early signs of that already because exports are growing in almost all of the countries in difficulties; current-account deficits are coming down. And I have no doubt that once this adjustment period has been concluded at the moment we are halfway through then the turning point will be there. Think back to Turkey in 1999. I was working in London [at Moore Capital]. The traders around me always said: Turkey, totally hopeless. They will never be able to service their debts. The markets just don't get it. They forget that economies move in cycles and that when competitiveness is restored, there will be growth again. In Turkey now, the debt is 40 percent of GDP. It's a big success story.

5. Has the euro been worth it?

The answer is a clear yes. I remember life before the euro. We had the last intra-European currency crisis in 1995, triggered by the Mexican tequila crisis, and within weeks the deutsche mark appreciated 20 percent against the lira. It was great for me because I go on vacation in Italy, but Volkswagen could no longer compete with Fiat. At the end of the year, Deutsche Bank estimated that Germany lost 1 percent of growth because of this. So that's a good economic reason. Basically, the single market is protected by the euro.