Monte Paschi’s Failed Road Show

When Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena needed to raise capital last fall, executives paraded the beleaguered Tuscan bank in front of hundreds of global investors, hoping to find an anchor investor willing to drop a cool €1 billion ($1.07 billion).

Not one took the bait.

Who could blame them? Monte Paschi could be likened to rotten cannoli — but rather than spoiled ricotta filling, it’s chock-full of bad loans.

没有一个锚定投资者,Monte Paschi has been forced to turn to the Italian government fora bailoutin what could be the beginning of the country’s biggest bank intervention since fascist dictator Benito Mussolini nationalized the sector in 1933. While European banks in general havestruggled to stay afloatin a world of tougher regulations and low-to-negative interest rates, the Italian banking system is stuffed with €360 billion of bad loans. To make matters worse, the Bank of Italy estimates more than half are nonperforming, orsofferenze. For comparison, total equity in the Italian banking sector is about €225 billion.

Since its founding in 1472, Monte Paschi has survived countless wars and crises, but according to stress tests published by the European Central Bank in July, the world’s oldest bank would not survive into 2018 under its worst-case scenario. It did not come as a surprise: The bank has fallen on tough times since the start of the global financial meltdown. In November 2007, on the eve of the crisis, Monte Paschi made an ill-timed — and perhaps overpriced — acquisition of rival Banca Antonveneta from Spain’s Banco Santander for €9 billion in cash. As the crisis raged on, Monte Paschi allegedly covered up losses using a series of derivatives trades with Deutsche Bank and Nomura Holdings thatcame to lightin 2013, bringing criminal charges and tarnished reputations to all three. Monte Paschi took a plea deal in October, while the trial against Deutsche Bank and Nomura kicked off in Milan in December.

今年9月，摩根士丹利（Marco Morelli）出任首席执行官，带领公司实现扭亏为盈，该行股价已累计下跌80%。这位前美银美林（bankofamerica-Merrill-Lynch）驻意大利负责人承担了一项艰巨的任务：向投资者推销蒙特帕奇（montepaschi），这是他筹集50亿欧元资金和避免政府干预的最后一搏。就在那一刻，莫雷利在伦敦、纽约和多哈的秋季路演上踢了一脚。最终，它毫无进展。

当卡塔尔投资管理局（Qatar Investment Authority）进入谈判，成为必要的主力投资者的消息传出时，投资者看到了一丝希望。这只3380亿美元的主权财富基金是继2008年投资数十亿美元支持巴克莱（Barclays）和瑞士信贷（creditsuisse）之后的自然选择。但最终，蒙特帕奇未能吸引卡塔尔人或任何其他投资者。而似乎这还不够难卖，12月4日，选民击落立宪公投总理，对意大利政治稳定的信心受到侵蚀Matteo Renzihad staked his career on.

Luckily for Monte Paschi, two weeks later the incoming administration of Paolo Gentiloni won support from parliament to establish a €20 billion rescue fund to serve as a backstop for its struggling banking sector. On December 23, Monte Paschi’s stock price was down 88 percent for the year when the bank asked for government assistance. Italian market regulator Consob subsequently suspended trading in Monte Paschi’s shares and bonds while the terms of the bailout are finalized.

根据欧盟所谓的“纾困”规则，在成员国能够用纳税人的钱纾困银行之前，初级债券持有人必须受到打击。欧洲央行已下令蒙特帕奇向其资本基础增加88亿欧元，以通过7月份未能通过的压力测试。根据新的要求，意大利央行宣布了“预防性资本重组”计划，要求联邦政府拿出66亿欧元，其中20亿欧元用于补偿约4万名零售债券持有人。剩下的22亿欧元将来自于将初级债务换成股权。

Monte Paschi needs to submit a new restructuring plan by the end of February before Rome and Brussels can start negotiations over how the state will provide capital and split the burden among shareholders. Speaking before a Senate committee in January, CEO Morelli said he plans to cut 500 branches and 2,450 jobs within the next three years. “The new MPS business plan is based on the state’s intervention being temporary,” he told parliament. “The bank must return to being a bank. Our objective is to return to a strong commercial position as soon as possible.”

If one thing is certain in all this, it’s that the Italian banking crisis is far from over. Analysts warn that Italy’s banking sector may need as much as €52 billion in state aid, and Brussels tightening its grip on the Italian economy would hardly sit well with voters: Support is already growing to exit the EU. Italeave or Quitaly, anyone?