Why FRR Is Stubbing Out Its Tobacco Habit

法国国家养老金储备基金，Fonds deRéservePresLes Retraites（FRR）于2016年12月宣布，它将排除对烟草生产公司股票和债券的投资。

There is growing pressure on institutional investors and others to divest from tobacco, based on strong scientific evidence of the harm caused by smoking. In particular, the efforts of烟草免费投资组合, a campaigning initiative set up by Dr. Bronwyn King, an Australian cancer specialist, have raised awareness of the issue. FRR executive director Olivier Rousseau admits it struck a chord with him: “Morally, it’s a very clear-cut situation; it is indefensible. This is only a harm-producing industry, so from a moral perspective, it was easy to say that we don’t want tobacco in the portfolio.”

但是，在道德理由上排除烟草股，占据了烟草股的强大理由，将艰难的投资逻辑应用于投资者来说。“烟草的回报绝对出色。卢梭所说，2004年6月至2016年9月，MSCI世界烟草指数增长了632％。““虽然MSCI世界指数上涨了122％。”根据Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2015, from the Credit Suisse Research Institute, the tobacco sector was, together with beverages, the star performer since 1900 with an annualized gain of 14.6 percent [see chart below]. We’ve all heard comments from CalPERS, which said that not having had tobacco in the portfolio over the last 15 years has cost it around $3 billion. Similarly the Norwegian GPFG [Government Pension Fund Global] says its tobacco exclusion, which started ten years ago, has cost it some $2 billion. The results may vary depending on the methodology used. If one compares total returns, the difference is bigger than if one assumes, as is the case in real-life portfolios, that the dividends of high-yielding sectors, such as tobacco, are actually pooled with all dividends and reinvested in all sectors pro rata to their index weightings. Anyhow, yes, it is a bad industry, but there is no denying that it has been a very profitable investment.”

However, tobacco may not be such a good investment in the future. One reason to expect lower future returns is tougher public health legislation on smoking. “Many countries have made a commitment to act against smoking, and France is party to a 2005 international agreement on this, which basically says that public institutions should not have tobacco investments,” Rousseau says. “You can argue about its enforceability, but it is clearly a commitment taken seriously by the countries that have signed it.”

“There is a significant probability that more developed countries will take more measures against tobacco in the future. France is the second country, after the U.K., to remove branding from packaging for tobacco since January 1 this year,” Rousseau says. “Taxes are always being increased on tobacco, and regulations are increasingly restricting smoking in public spaces. Just as we can see a shift away from using carbon-emitting energy sources, so there is a similar regulatory move away from tobacco consumption.”

作为食品和饮料行业的一部分，自2007年全球金融危机的开始以来，烟草表现强劲地作为低波动性，高股息和稳定的增长部门进行。因此，烟草股在高倍数下降，如投资组合管理中低波动趋势之一，但卢梭表示现在正在发生变化。“对于低波动，稳定增长的公司而言，有一个强大的运行，但它即将结束。从去年7月开始，在Brexit害怕的前几周之后，“他说，”价值股票已经回来了。从那时起，稳定增长，“低Vol”公司，携带高倍倍数，相对于整体市场做得不佳。这种趋势已经开始，我们相信还有更多的时间，这可能是某些时候到来的情况。“

FRR的执行委员会不得不提出不包括烟草给监事会的案件。“有一个很好的辩论，因为很容易看到烟草股的道德争论，”卢苏说。“当然表达了对回报的担忧，所以还讨论了论证。我们不能保证不包括烟草公司的监事会将来会付出代价，但我们只是相信过去的强大回报不会以同样的方式重复。在我们看来，这将是一个非常低的概率情景。“

Although many investors engage with companies in an effort to improve theirESGrating and see divestment as a last resort, Rousseau says that this approach is not possible with tobacco producers. “It is typically the only thing that they do, so you would be asking them to stop their activities altogether,” he says. “You either invest, or you divest. The middle-of-the-road approach would be to reduce your weighting, but that is ducking the issue, really. We understand that there is an element of risk to us, but the next decade will most probably not see the same performance as in the past.”

由于其决定排除烟草股票，FRR加入了Calpers和Calstrs，除了挪威的GPFG，荷兰的PGGM，少数澳大利亚和新西兰养老基金，AXA insurance group，最近，最近，瑞典的AP4，在没有烟草的情况下。“正如我们理解的那样，到目前为止，仍然很少投资者，我认为回报论点是一直非常强大的东西，”卢塞德说。

At the same time as it announced its tobacco divestment, FRR said it will now also exclude companies in which thermal coal extraction, or coal-fired power generation, accounts for more than 20 percent of turnover. Rousseau added that FRR is shortly to reveal the three successful managers it has hired for a €5 billion ($5.34 billion) passive equity mandate with an ESG approach, expressed notably through a smart beta, low-carbon theme and, of course, tobacco exclusion. This mandate will make up 40 percent of FRR’s developed-market equities.