欧洲股票：你应该抱着你的神经吗？

European Equities – should you hold your nerve?

尽管去年的排练,金融市场甲型肝炎e again been disregarding political uncertainty. Most equity markets have enjoyed double-digit gains since the Brexit vote, typical safe havens have been left in their wake and cross asset volatility has dropped towards historical lows. Are investors right to be so calm?

坚定的鸽子和经济绿色芽

贵族中央银行继续抚慰投资者的神经。宏观经济新闻有所改善，全球康复看起来很好。这在欧元区尤其如此，其中迹象很清楚。

3月PMI调查结果以来，自巨大的金融危机以来，达到了最高的危机，而是较乐观的，这表明今年欧洲的增长率约为3％。劳动力市场条件也在改善，充满信心。自去年夏天以来，2017年增长的共识估计率已在不断上市。我们对2017年欧元区增长的预测率为1.8％。

缺少的链接

Progress on activity is clear, but evidence inflation is gearing up is scarce. Inflation expectations have eased, oil base effects are waning (greater US production is delaying the rebalancing of the market) and wage growth is yet to really gain traction. Some inflation could be imported from a weak euro and a firmer credit uptake could help. Core inflation could end the year at around 1.1%, but that’s unlikely to be enough to shift the ECB’s stance.

Those frail inflation prospects should keep the ECB dovish for now. QE should endure until year end, with Mario Draghi and team resisting the taper temptation until 2018 at the earliest. Base rates should turn positive by 2020 while deposit rates could be less negative sooner. ECB support bodes well for Europe’s credit markets given corporate bonds represent the deepest pool of assets at the central bank’s disposal. Should sovereign yields jump, the picture might not be so rosy.

反映的进一步进展很可能，也应该帮助企业利润。公司似乎恢复了定价能力，而不会面临筹集工资的任何真正压力，这是一个良好的收益。当美国苗条挑选的投资者寻求更加现实估值时，今年，今年的欧洲股票ETF的小奇迹已经强劲。欧元区股票中可能存在大量上行，特别是对于单一国家指数，但政治仍在致电，尽管令人难以欣赏法国的结果。

未解决的问题

第一轮的结果可能会放松大部分选举风险溢价，但其他测试在于6月中旬的立法选举。目前，我们期望进一步支持欧洲股票，银行和反思相关领域，如零售，汽车和建筑。但是，别无待地认为，正在进行的可能收益将完整实现。

随着经济活动升起和劳动力市场加强的情况，鸸oc家庭显得令人成熟。建筑物活动应该加速现在恢复是根深蒂固的。公共投资将重点关注基础设施，而家庭应该享受超低借贷成本环境和房地产价格积极的举动。

欧元区银行似乎克服了近年来的大部分结构和监管障碍，并且正在变得有趣的战术机会。意大利，估值是有吸引力的，财务化占该指数的三分之一，可以受益。

Waiting for the light to change

A market-friendly victory, and a legislative majority, in the second round could green light a catch up of the CAC 40 over the DAX and even versus the CAC Mid 60, which has no exposure to banks. In the long run, however, such an outcome could lead to reduction in corporate tax rates, and a possible tailwind for the smaller companies in the CAC Mid 60.

Elsewhere, Dutch companies look set to enjoy some impressive earnings growth, while their Irish peers could be beneficiaries of the Brexit uncertainties across the water.

Brexit负担

虽然我们在欧元区股票上是积极的，但我们不能对他们的英国同行说同样的说法。英国市场似乎已经到目前为止耸了耸肩，肆无忌惮地耸了耸肩，而商品价格较高，较弱的英镑可能会增加一些支持。然而，我们确实相信投资者对英国公司收入的风险过度饱和。

不要（全部）债券

We’re neutral for now, but eurozone bonds do look expensive. Even a Le Pen loss comes with risks because it could prompt investors to unwind the safe-haven trades that drove bund yields down to near zero. However unlikely, better-than-expected economic growth and inflation data could still tempt Draghi and his doves to taper their bond-buying programme later this year. The EU’s more orthodox Northern countries certainly hope so.

明智地贸易一旦法国选举完全落后于我们。它可能更加尖锐地关注欧洲央行计划退出其量化宽松计划的计划，使得债券的前景在夏天超越夏天时会更有看跌。

Click here for more information.

Disclaimers:

All data: Lyxor Cross Asset Research & SG Research, April 2017. Opinions expressed are as at April 2017.

This communication is for professional clients and qualified investors only.

This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “Eligible Counterparties” or “Professional Clients” within the meaning of Markets In Financial Instruments Directive 2004/39/EC.

This document is of a commercial nature and not of a regulatory nature. This document does not constitute an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, from Société Générale, Lyxor International Asset Management or any of their respective affiliates or subsidiaries to purchase or sell the product referred to herein.

We recommend to investors who wish to obtain further information on their tax status that they seek assistance from their tax advisor. The attention of the investor is drawn to the fact that the net asset value stated in this document (as the case may be) cannot be used as a basis for subscriptions and/or redemptions. The market information displayed in this document is based on data at a given moment and may change from time to time. The figures relating to past performances refer or relate to past periods and are not a reliable indicator of future results. This also applies to historical market data. The potential return may be reduced by the effect of commissions, fees, taxes or other charges borne by the investor.

Lyxor International Asset Management（Lyxor ETF），SociétéParandSimplifiée在TourtsSociétéGénérale的注册办事处，17 Cours Valmy，92800 PuteSux（法国），418 862 215 RCS南非斯塔尔（AutoritédesMarchés金融家（AMF）授权和监管）根据UCITS指令和AIFM指令（2011/31 /欧盟）。Lyxor ETF由Lyxor Asset Management UK LLP在英国代表，该公司由英国的财务行为管理局在注册号435658下授权和监管。