“我很满意这个。”
Very often I’ve heard such a rationale used to signify a final investment decision, ostensibly after a careful and dispassionate consideration of the potential risks and return. Unfortunately, more often than not, this comment simply signifies a lack of the conflicting thoughts that should accompany a difficult decision, and if anything, is evidence of the predominance of emotion in the decision maker’s process, as opposed to rational analysis.
为什么我们希望对一个艰难的决定感到满意？
嗯，从进化的角度来看，有一些基础 - 和价值 - 在这种舒适度下作为决策标准。乘坐动物世界：作为任何群体的牧草，它受益于所有成员的共同注意力。每个成员可以舒适地吃，在知识中的内容，应该出现捕食者，许多其他人将对捕食者的存在提醒捕食者的存在，并且可能提供充足的时间逃脱，是横跨领域的冲刺或欺骗树。每个人的风险都被共享的社会责任减轻了。
On the other hand, the benefit to straying outside of the group to find a modestly better grazing ground is extremely limited. And more importantly, it comes with a much higher risk of being the one animal to get caught. In this situation, discomfort is highly adaptive; it’s self-preservation’s way of telling you that something is not right.
猎犬的最佳利益通常与其每个成员的个人最佳利益保持一致。重要的是要意识到它只是在过去的几千年之下 - 眼睛相对于数百万多年来的物种的进化 - 人类更加猎人而不是猎杀。
然而，金融市场的生存是一个明显不同的动物。
我在芝加哥有一个好朋友，一次性居住一天（或更准确，夜晚）贸易欧洲股票期货和衍生物。在他曾在芝加哥南方的贸易咨询台经理的贸易办公室经理之一，来自芝加哥南侧的魁梧，曾问他的风险是多少。
我朋友的回应是“我对我开心的风险水平很满意。”
The highly caffeinated desk manager’s reaction was immediate and explosive.
“那么你没有足够的风险！”前楼层交易员轰炸，将其大量的拳头打球并将其猛击在桌子上。“市场不付给您舒适！”
不用说，我的朋友再也没有使用他的舒适程度来描述一项投资。
听到这个故事后 - 歇斯底里地笑，了解交易所各方 - 我逐渐反思了狂热的贸易商评论的智慧。
与上面的轶事中的觅食生物不同，它实际上确实支付额外的费用来推出投资中的舒适区。并相反，我们的舒适度经常将我们蒙蔽了相当大的符合风险。太多的投资者更愿意传统上失败，而不是非传统。
沃伦巴菲特着名的“当别人害怕时，别人贪婪地害怕。”这个圣人建议从不少于所有时间的最大投资者都直接通过符合性直接讲解这个舒适问题。
When animal spirits are strong, and the equity market has had a sustained rally, investing in equities is quite easy, despite the reality that risks are likely higher and forward-looking returns lower. On the other hand, after a steep selloff, when many investors are panicking and selling non-economically, stocks are generally offered at their biggest discounts. Subsequent returns after such bargain-basement buying opportunities are much higher than long-run averages.
For example, it was a very easy decision to buy stocks in the late nineties, during the peak of the tech boom. As of December 1998, U.S. stocks had averaged total returns of roughly 20 percent per year since the beginning of that decade. To someone excitedly buying at that time, the annualized return of -1.8 percent over the next ten years would have been extremely disappointing.
可悲的是，大多数研究表明这正是大多数投资者的行为 - 零售和机构的行为 - 展示：在最近的最近的绩效之后购买股票或招聘经理，只要让它们更高的事情。
相反，2008年12月投资股票将非常逆势，极为不舒服，但投资者足够勇敢地在接下来的八年内每年赚14.5％。
反对人群总是不舒服，但经常得到很好的补偿。
人们可以争辩说，保真金的最简单定义是那些在没有得到它的利益的情况下做出不舒服的决定的人。我们有责任代表我们的受益人拥有这种不适，往往无法或不愿意这样做。
市场不付给我们舒适。但是，如果我们能够鼓起勇气制造理性投资决策，而不担心公约意见，它将为我们的不适而持久地支付我们的受益人。
Christopher M. Schelling是德克萨斯市政退休系统的私募股权投资总监。