The money is pouring in," says a somewhat awed Anthony Malloy, a portfolio manager at New York Life Investment Management who has seen the assets of his leveraged-loan portfolios swell from slightly more than $2 billion to $3.5 billion in the 12 months through mid-July. Credit the ubiquitous search for yield: Malloy's portfolio of non-investment-grade bank loans is catnip to investors looking to lock in relatively high yields.
Loans to U.S. and European corporate borrowers rated double-B and B are issued and traded at a premium -- now typically 200 to 260 basis points -- to LIBOR, recently at 3.6 percent. With short-term rates rising and long-term U.S. Treasuries struggling to maintain an attractive yield advantage, returns of up to 6 percent (before investment management fees) are, not surprisingly, a magnet for institutional money. The global market for newly issued leveraged loans swelled from $167 billion in the first half of 2004 to $217 billion in the first six months of this year, according to Standard & Poor's. (The U.S. accounts for $149 billion of the total and Europe for almost all of the remainder.)
Yield isn't the whole story. Bank loans represent senior secured debt, meaning that leveraged-loan holders get first crack at assets should an issuer fail. Recovery rates, which have been running about 35 to 40 percent for holders of junk bonds, are better than 80 percent for leveraged-loan holders, according to Thomas Finke, co-head of the bank loan team at Boston-based Babson Capital Management.
随着浮动率的浮动率信贷，杠杆贷款也提供了对不断增长的利率的保护。在密苏里州Clayton的主导投资顾问的管理合伙人C. Richard Beard，他们往往比高收益债券更易于挥发。尽管如此，当公司再融资时，银行贷款通常是可疑的，这限制了他们的上行潜力。S＆P董事总经理的杠杆评论和数据，一项研究服务，STEVEN MILLER说：“价格几乎没有高于PAR。
投资者in leveraged loans naturally worry most about credit risk. At the moment, with businesses generally in a positive phase of the credit cycle, the risk seems modest.
Defaults, which peaked at an annualized 8.2 percent rate in December, 2000, stood at just 1.3 percent for the 12 months ended June 30, 2005, notes Miller.
Nevertheless, given the capital rush into the asset class, some believe that risk is rising. Miller sees some cause for concern in borrowers' "rising leverage multiples" -- higher debt-to-cash-flow ratios. "We're starting to see the quality of the issuers diminish," says Michael Bacevich, who manages $1.8 billion in leveraged loans at Hartford Investment Management Co. Leverage among corporate borrowers has swelled as a result of new waves of merger and leveraged-buyout activity, Bacevich explains, and loan investors will eventually foot the bill. "It will come home to roost in the form of higher default rates in the next two years," he warns.
That's one reason portfolio managers cite credit risk analysis as their primary focus. "Our style is focused on loss avoidance," says Bacevich, noting that historically, "12 percent of all B issuers default within two years." For the past couple of years, Bacevich has avoided both the auto manufacturers and their suppliers.
“我们业务的核心正在进行基本的学分分析，”Babson Capital的Finke确认。虽然贷款投资者是众所周知的银行贷方发布的信用报告，但Babson试图进一步进一步。“我们正在做信用分析，看看我们是否同意银行，”Finke解释道。
On occasion, credit analysis will unearth a worthy investment in an apparent heap of junk. As overbuilding telecommunications companies flooded the market with debt three years ago, Babson zeroed in on Nextel loans -- which were then deeply discounted along with other telecom debt. Reasoning that Nextel had been dragged down by its peers and confident the telecom company could pay off its loans, Finke bought deeply discounted Nextel debt in 2002. It was eventually paid off without default.
At NYLIM, Malloy looks for companies with predictable revenue and cash flow. These are especially important at a time when many companies are taking on added debt in LBOs or to fund acquisitions.
案例指出：星座品牌，公平运动，纽约酒制造商和分销商，其债务米洛伊一直在购买。“他们用杠杆来融资收购，”他说。“但是我们将默认的风险视为低位。”作为担保贷款的持有人，即使在违约情况下也会受到保护。“公司的资产价值超过担保债务金额”，“马洛伊伊解释道。
虽然大多数投资组合管理人员压力信用分析，但它们的愿意伴随着他们愿意肩负着多少信贷风险。在波士顿的伊顿Vance，它管理零售和机构贷款投资中的190亿美元，斯科特页面将高收益率作为危险的诱惑。“我们不延伸收益，”页面说，伊顿Vance银行贷款团队的联合主管。“在信用质量下降时，信贷涉及的风险呈指数增长。”
页面最近将高级担保的信用卡传递给Virgin Mobust USA，这是由Richard Branson的Virgin组和Sprint发布的无线服务提供商。伊顿Vance得出结论，维珍机动性甚至可能在2005年的现金流量甚至可能会破坏，但承担债务债务率近4亿美元。页面说，“他们花了数亿美元，回到布兰森和冲刺。”投资组合经理最终抵制了更好的回报率为6％的诱饵。（维珍流动拒绝评论。）
在基于达拉斯的高地资本管理中，首席投资官Mark Okada充满信心，他可以处理今天更高的风险。根据冈田的说法，高原管理超过140亿美元的贷款，利用其规模在研究中投入大量投资。okada以48个信用分析师和投资组合经理人认为，在高收益问题开始比目前比之前，他可以预测他可以预测麻烦和卖出。
“经理的任务是弄清楚哪些名称将折断，并且在这种情况下如何销售它们，”冈田说。“我们认为Alpha是您销售的函数，而不是您购买的功能。”
Highland was one of the first to spot looming troubles for Atkins Nutritionals, the Ronkonkoma, New Yorkbased low-carbohydrate-diet company. Highland had positions in two Atkins loans and sold out in the first quarter of 2004 at an average price just above par. Recently, in the wake of Atkins's August 1 bankruptcy filing, one loan was trading at 70 cents on the dollar and the other at 10 to 15 cents on the dollar.
高地如何知道保释？冈田采取了专门致力于食品行业的信用分析师的研究，他得出结论，阿斯金斯将在其他食品公司带来市场份额，以至于其他食品公司将低碳水化合物产品推向市场。
最近，随着资本的匆忙贷款已经开始压缩在美国的高风险问题上，特别是一些经理怀疑资产课程是否仍然有吸引力。“当我看到弱点双BS的差分分布时，我必须问自己，”我为什么在这个市场上？“”Muses Ray Kennedy，实际上，在市场上以很大的方式在市场上。作为太平洋投资管理有限公司全球高收益率的负责人，肯尼迪负责监督310亿美元的资产，其中美国和欧洲贷款70亿美元。
"We're out there comparing U.S. leveraged-loan offerings with what's available in Europe and in high-yield bonds," says Kennedy. With strong demand pushing down credit spreads on U.S. loan offerings, Europe is now more attractive than the U.S., he believes.
In the U.S., Kennedy observes, banks have loosened some loan covenants, easing up, for example, on tests of whether companies can pay future dividends. European lending standards are tougher.
这是肯尼迪最近购买了欧洲有线电视公司的TeleNet贷款的一个原因。票据提供了250个基点信用差价。他喜欢电缆的可预测的收入流量，并引用Telenet相对较低的债务水平：兴趣前的盈利，税收，股息和摊销前约两倍。“在美国，两次债务/ EBITDA贷款将是关于LIBOR PLUS 200，”肯尼迪的笔记，品尝卓越的大陆蔓延。