Mel Karmazin of Sirius Satellite Radio: The dish on Mel

Mel Karmazin, who built radio empire Infinity Broadcasting Corp. in the 1980s, used to dismiss satellite radio as little more than music without the commercials -- fine if you're a listener but a disaster if you're a broadcaster. Then he lost out to Sumner Redstone in a power struggle at Viacom and departed the media mogul's huge company in 2004, having served four stormy years as president and COO.

Karmazin最近,61年来的观点that satellite radio has a future, after all. Indeed, last November he agreed to become CEO of New Yorkbased Sirius Satellite Radio. Karmazin says there are three reasons for his conversion to satellite: cars, capacity and content. Carmakers are installing satellite radios in millions of vehicles; satellite radio broadcasts more than 100 channels, opening the door to niche programming like that of cable television; and contracts with talk-show stars like Howard Stern are expected to draw listeners from "terrestrial" radio, as satellite folks call it.

但天狼星远远落后于华盛顿基于华盛顿的XM卫星广播电台，2001年在一年前推出了服务，并吸引了大幅度的听众。3月底，天狼星拥有145万用户，少于XM的377万次。

XM的独家长期交易，将其收音机安装在通用电机，本田，日产和丰田Autos上也将其提供了一个Sirius的分销优势，其无线电在BMW，戴姆勒克莱斯勒和福特汽车中安装。自动化制造商分配XM的无线电占83.9％的国内车辆生产，而Sirius合作伙伴的35.5％，估计J.P.摩根章蔡干蔡·蔡根·蔡司机公司预计XM预计2006年的积极现金流量，比Sirius早一年。

Karmazin's company is bleeding hundreds of millions of dollars in an effort to catch up. Revenue more than quadrupled, to $43 million, in the first quarter of 2005. But the company posted a loss of $194 million, up 34 percent over the same period a year ago, as spending soared on exclusive content. Sirius shares, trading at about $6 in late May, down 21 percent on the year, have been a favorite of short-sellers.

在光明的一面，天狼星和XM都是一大堆。在未来十年内，卫星收音机预计将获得数百万个用户，两者都应该繁荣。但是，他们的增长是多少取决于来自新技术的竞争：数字地面无线电，具有可比的保真度和额外的渠道;MP3播放器，如Apple Computer的iPod;和第三代手机可以调整从互联网和其他来源进行编程。

Karmazin is betting that content will trump technology. Sirius spent $500 million to secure Stern's bawdy talk show for five years, beginning no later than next January. It has agreed to shell out hundreds of millions more for exclusive rights to broadcast professional football, basketball, hockey and auto racing. Karmazin also has signed rehabilitated lifestyle diva Martha Stewart for her own radio show. He discussed the company's prospects with Institutional Investor Senior Editor Steven Brull at the Beverly Hilton hotel in Beverly Hills, California.

亚博赞助欧冠机构投资者：在我们谈论天狼星之前，请让我问汤姆·弗雷斯顿和莱斯利的月亮，他在维亚康姆成功。本公司透露，除了去年每人超过5000万美元的总赔偿之外，尽管在为商业旅行时留在自己的房屋，但他们在一起收取普京约150,000美元的收费。

Karmazin：我唯一的评论是，如果公司的赔偿委员会确定它是合适的，那么它没有任何问题。

当你是总统时，你是比尔类似的费用吗？

不。看看任何披露。

你会批准吗？

我不想陷入假设。

你如何评估与XM卫星的竞争？

我真的没有。我真正看着那些没有卫星收音机作为机会的人。如果我不得不看一个特定的竞争对手，那将是地面无线电广播公司。在卫星收音机中，我看到了一个二寡头，就像焦炭和百事可乐一样。这是一个很大的市场。两家公司都将在经济上非常成功。

你是焦炭还是百事可乐？

我们相信我们最终将成为较大的公司。

为什么人们应该支付始终免费的无线电编程支付？

We've been very focused on doing things that terrestrial radio doesn't have the ability to do, like the recent programming deal with Martha Stewart. We have 120 channels in every market in the country. Under federal regulations one terrestrial radio broadcaster can have only up to eight radio stations in one market. We can do niche programming, like 65 channels of commercial-free music, Howard Stern, Martha Stewart, every NFL game that's being played and an Eminem channel. Also, our vision is that automobile traffic in the U.S. will get worse. And if it gets worse and you're going to spend more time in your car, then $12.95 a month is not such an expensive price to pay to get entertained two to three hours a day.

卫星无线电有多少用户可以达到全潜力？

There are 200 million cars on the road and 16 million to 17 million new cars manufactured every year. There are also 109 million homes. Then there are boats and businesses. The market has the ability to generate 300 million subscriptions. When you start dealing with numbers this big, it almost seems not credible. But sell-side analysts estimate the market will have from 40 million to 80 million subscribers. Take half the most conservative estimate and multiply it by $12.95 a month, and the margin becomes very high.

提高广告收入有哪些潜力？

We have 65 music channels that don't have commercials, and we don't plan to put advertising there. It would hurt our subscriber growth. But the other

55个频道是广告机会。霍华德·斯特恩不迟于2006年1月来到天狼星，我们拥有整个广告库存。我们不希望在广告1亿美元的广告中获得任何地方，以至于他的先前公司表示他们所做的。但这代表着重要的增长。保守地，在接下来的几年里，广告将是我们订阅收入的10％。

提升订户费用如何？

We think there's elasticity available to us on subscriber ARPU [average revenue per user]. But thinking back to the bad image cable TV got by increasing rates, my feeling is that it may be in the long-term best interest of satellite radio for us not to raise our rates right now.

Would you do so in two or three years?

也许甚至没有那么远，而不是本月。我们做了一些研究，我们可以每月达到14.95美元，而不增加我们的流失或降低我们的用户增长。

或许明年？

是的，它可能是。

在未来几年的新技术 - 从MP3播放器到数字收音机到第三代手机 - 将对卫星收音机呈现挑战。哪个是最威胁的？

I think it's the cell phone, although I don't know if it's threatening. Everyone's going to carry one, and you don't want to carry too many devices. But there's the issue of sound quality. And most cell phone companies are not truly national in scope. I think that if we secure the best content, then we're going to have a very strong position no matter what kind of device is used.

美国在线宣布它将在今年夏天将XM的频道增加到其无线电服务。Sirius是否需要与雅虎这样的公司有类似的在线分发协议或谷歌？

我们已经与美国在线的讨论,直到他们妈妈的时候de a decision, but the deal that we wanted wasn't a deal that AOL was willing to do. We value our content, and the idea of giving it away for free is not what we consider a good business model. [XM says it will share some subscriber revenues with AOL.] But sure, if there's a smart way to hook up, why wouldn't we? The other thing to keep in mind is that we can get into the home with our own site and run a whole bunch of advertising of the fact that you can get it at Sirius.

SIRIUS和XM正在共同开发一个接收器，允许消费者在两种服务之间切换而不购买新设备。什么会有什么影响？

我相信可互操作的无线电将在一年内做好准备，但我不知道接下来会发生什么。没有要求汽车公司安装可互操作的无线电 - 汽车公司只要这些交易是独家的，汽车公司就有收入分享协议，所以我无法想象汽车公司会这样做。这肯定不是我们现在的商业模式。

What's your favorite radio station?

I'm probably the only one who will say this: It's the audio channel of CNBC.