The 2005 All-America Fixed-Income Research Team

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The bond market continues to confound. Nearly three quarters of the way through 2005, the yield on the benchmark ten-year Treasury bond sat below the 4.25 percent level of January, well under the 5 percent that market watchers had anticipated at the start of the year. This despite ten successive quarter-point rate hikes by the Federal Reserve Board since June 2004 -- the most recent being early last month -- that have boosted the all-important federal funds rate on interbank loans to 3.50 percent as of mid-August. The persistence of low long-term yields in the face of interest rate hikes, credit market shocks and mounting signs of inflationary pressure has perplexed nearly everyone, from economists to central bankers to retirees clipping coupons in Florida. The Bank for International Settlements, in its annual report released in June, called the phenomenon "particularly puzzling."

Explanations vary. Some see a flight to quality brought on by market uncertainty, whereas others believe that the yawning U.S. trade imbalance has created strong foreign demand for Treasuries. "What we call a U.S. problem is just as much a Japanese problem because they have nowhere to keep their money," says Ravi Mattu, global head of fixed-income research at Lehman Brothers. Pessimists contend that low long-term rates signal excess capacity and an economy that is weaker than perceived and headed for trouble.

To sort through this puzzle, investors turn to Wall Street's fixed-income research analysts. For a sixth consecutive year, Lehman Brothers ranks No. 1 in Institutional Investor's All-America Fixed-Income Research Team. (The firm is the reigning winner in equity research as well.) In all, Lehman garners 39 total team positions, edging out repeating-second-place J.P. Morgan, which wins 38 positions, one more than last year. Credit Suisse First Boston holds steady in third place, although it loses three team spots, for a total of 28. UBS moves up a position to fourth, followed by Bear, Stearns & Co., which ranked sixth last year. Among the biggest movers: Banc of America Securities, which jumps from tenth to seventh place, tying with Citigroup, which falls from fourth in 2004.

今年的调查，我们的14日，涵盖了62个类别。我们在结构化证券区域，MBS /可调率抵押贷款以及Autos＆Auto零件的单独投资级类别中增加了一个新的类别（以前包括在制造中）。我们已经消除了投资级运输类别，主要是航空公司;现在这些主要是在高产运输类别中。

Rates and yields are not the only areas of the bond market that have deviated from expectations. After indicating in conference calls and written materials that downgrades of Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. were unlikely until the second half of the year, Standard & Poor's lowered the auto giants to junk status in May. The move, which affected more than $450 billion in bonds, caused spreads to widen and brought the primary market to a temporary halt. Market participants feared that bond owners dumping Ford and GM for other investment-grade securities would suffer losses. Conversely, they worried that high-yield investors would be forced to sell off large portions of their holdings to make room for the auto debt.

"None of us was sure how great the high-yield appetite would be for Ford and GM paper," says Brian Jacoby, who finishes first in the Investment-Grade Autos & Auto Parts sector and who joined Goldman, Sachs & Co. in July from Morgan Stanley.

此外，谣言使一些对冲基金进行了一些对冲基金，这些资金在股票和债券市场中取得了大量的赌注，期望标准普尔将持有其降级，陷入困境。但是 - 虽然通用汽车和福特邦德债券扩大蔓延，但在禁用的挑战和一两个对冲基金上加强了国债 - 没有一般危机。市场吸收了汽车制造商降级得分相当容易展示信用衍生品市场多远 - 这预料到了坏消息，并将其定价为信贷违约掉期。两年前，一名研究院长，“大多数真正的人家伙如果它落在他们身上，而且今天不是这种情况。”信用衍生品已变得如此重要，例如分析师，即五年违约保护水平，而不是现金债券传播，已成为比较证券的基础。

“信贷违约交换差价是一个纯粹的关系，”巴克莱首都总监和高级制造分析师Chester Luy说，该分析师是投资级制造业的第一队获胜者，Autos＆Auto零件的第2位。在标准的五年信用违约掉期中传播到通用汽车在300个基本要点范围内的年度开始。他们在4月下旬升至近900个基点，并在降级后的日期和几周内滚动至1,062个基点。八月后，他们在610年。

Covering the more complex fixed-income markets requires a different structure and approach. Lehman and Bear Stearns, to name two firms, have combined their respective high-grade and high-yield research teams. UBS has opted for another approach, combining its bond, currency and rates research businesses, partly for easier regulatory monitoring and partly to deliver a broader range of research. "We are putting out more pieces involving cooperation across the fixed-income research areas, something we didn't do before," says Laurie Goodman, co-head of the firm's fixed-income research, head of its mortgage-backed-securities research effort and leader of first-place teams in four MBS categories. She points to a 36-page report released in January that discusses the impact of foreign capital flows on the rates and credit markets as indicative of the kind of collaborative work the new group is producing. "If you are a mortgage investor, you want to understand what's going on in foreign flows, not only in the mortgage market but also in Treasury, agency and corporate markets," she says.

在J.P. Morgan，Margaret Cannella，美国的企业研究负责人和投资级零售业的第3号，分析师覆盖“不仅仅是债券，而且信贷方面的资本结构中的一切。”与德意志银行一样，她的公司已经嘲笑其公司固定收入和股权研究部门。Cannella表示，在第一季度结束时建立了新的结构，使分析师能够合作并互相帮助。声音彼此相反的意见，熊架的固定收入研究负责人Daniel Spina认为，股票和债券仍然是不同的动物，即“您需要分析师，他们可以为每个市场创造可操作的反应。”

结构变化的另一个动力一直是债券市场协会的研究指南，于2004年5月发布，其目的是促进固定收入研究的独立性。在指导方针的发行后，公司的贸易商和研究人员都有物理分开的交易商和研究人员，建立了桌面分析师团队和所需的分析师，以证明他们的工作是对自己信仰的反映。但是当II询问买方调查参与者是否准则改变了卖方的质量研究，他们的回答揭示了矛盾。一半说他们不知道研究质量是否有所改善，其余的人在那些认为指导方面对研究的积极影响和那些认为他们没有的人的人均均划分。-Scott Goodwin

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II由II在研究业务集团Sathya Rajavelu，Research Evan Cooper的助理管理编辑，技术和开发刘易斯·诺克斯和高级编辑Jane B. Kenney助理编辑助理管理编辑助理管理编辑集团Sathya Rajavelu助理编辑的方向上编制。