2005年拉丁美洲研究团队

Investors seemed to love everything Latin last year. The MSCI Latin America index surged 27.6 percent, compared with a 13.2 percent rise for emerging markets overall and a gain of 9.5 percent for the MSCI world index. In Brazil, trading volume on the Bovespa index grew by nearly half and market capitalization increased by almost 50 percent, to roughly $341 billion. Latin American mutual funds saw their assets rise by one fifth. More than a dozen Latin companies went public.

The good cheer was widespread. Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Venezuela all had solid increases; Mexico's was dramatic, at roughly 44 percent; Colombia's was spectacular, at 91 percent. The stellar gains were fueled by low interest rates, a pickup in the global economy, a perception that political risk has moderated and, above all, soaring commodities prices. "Twenty-seven percent of the MSCI Latin America index is materials stocks," notes Geoffrey Dennis, Latin American equity strategist and research director for Smith Barney Citigroup in New York. "If you add energy, that number grows to 40 percent."

拉丁美洲的投资文艺复兴对该地区的一流研究更加珍贵。对于第三年，投资者认为瑞银成为拉丁洞察力的最佳来源：瑞士公司在机构投资者2005年拉丁美洲研究团队中获得最高荣誉。亚博赞助欧冠正如去年所做的那样，UBS Garners 15团队职位。熊，斯特纳斯＆Co.和Santander投资证券领带第二，每组12个老虎机。绑定第四是信用瑞士瑞士第一波士顿，德意志银行证券和美林林奇，每个仓位都有九个职位。德国银行升起了任何公司的大部分;去年它八分之一，只有两个插槽。它的飞跃是对墨西哥城市基于IXE Casa de Bolsa的合资企业继续承诺的证据表明，2002年开始提供拉丁美洲研究。选择团队成员，II在近160名机构中调查了超过290人，估计在拉丁美洲股票750亿美元。

A couple of distinct trends were operating in Latin American research in 2004. One was the growing influence of globalization. As Damian Fraser, UBS's Latin American research director, explains, "Because country risk is falling and [Latin American] countries are more normal, their stocks trade more like their global sectors than like their countries." Thus, he says, Co. Vale do Rio Doce, or CVRD, the world's leading iron-ore miner, "trades with the Big Five mining companies in the world, not with Brazil." That global, not local, factors primarily drive such companies' earnings "is a positive development for global investors," says Fraser, who also leads the No. 1 team in Mexico coverage.

其他值得注意的发展是通过经纪公司倾向于在熊市多年期间向该地区进行短暂的施法而重新致力于拉丁美洲研究。“纽约信贷瑞士资产管理的投资组合经理Matthew Hickman Notes Matthew Hickman Notes Matthew Hickman说：”纽约州的投资组合经理Matthew Hickman。“这导致进一步投资分析能力。”近27％的拉丁美洲研究团队受访者回答有关问题的受访者与卖出侧拉丁股权研究“非常满意”，而2004年的售价为16％。

并非所有经纪人都在糟糕的几年中忽视了他们的拉丁文覆盖范围。“熊叶子做得很好，因为他们从未擅长这支球队，”纽约摩根队长的投资组合经理LuisCarlilo说，纽约州的摩根经理Luis Carrillo表示，他们相信经验偿还。他引用了Veteran Bear Stearns Analyst Marc McCarthy（集团和石油，天然气和石油和石油化工中排名第一的团队领导者），在巴西石油公司PetróleoBrasileiro或Petrobras的早期看涨电话。34麦卡锡已经看到钻孔平台的细节，即将加快生产。在麦卡锡2004年7月的升级时，Petrobras股票的交易价格为27.76美元;他们在2月下旬飙升50美元，然后在5月中旬跌倒。

For the many firms that have been augmenting their regional coverage over recent months, however, the debate over how best to deploy analysts covering Latin companies has intensified. "Investors are increasingly willing to pay for local flavor in research, but the days of people everywhere and huge budgets are over," asserts Citi's Dennis. Like Citi, which has six sector analysts and a strategist in New York plus five analysts in Mexico City, CSFB operates under the "New York base with local flavor" format.

UBS and Santander prefer to embed the bulk of their Latin American researchers in the countries themselves. UBS Latin research director Fraser makes his headquarters in Mexico City and manages a team of seven analysts in Brazil, five in New York, three in Mexico and two in London, in addition to two economists in New York. The Deutsche Bank arrangement is similar. The Deutsche Ixe and Deutsche Bank research teams consist of six sector analysts in New York and three each in Mexico and Brazil, plus strategists in Mexico and New York and economists in Colombia, London, New York and Mexico. Bear Stearns opts for a third approach: It home-bases all its Latin American analysts in New York but makes sure they pile up plenty of frequent-flier miles visiting the companies on their Latin beats.

拉丁研究全球化将越来越影响地点决策。随着拉丁美洲公司遵循欧洲的股票分析范式和从祖国的删除，强调和资源不禁从拉丁美洲国家分析师转向全球部门分析师。此外，由于跨境收购变得司空见惯，因此来自祖国的跨国公司变得越来越少。考虑墨西哥水泥制造商CEMEX最近收购U.K.的RMC集团。由于仅30％的Cemex盈利来自墨西哥，瑞银从伦敦遵循公司。CSAM投资组合经理希克曼的原因是全球产业，特别是商品，非常适合从主要金融中心覆盖，而当地行业最适合在国内遵循国家。他在阿根廷，巴西，智利，哥伦比亚，墨西哥，秘鲁和委内瑞拉维护了分析师的桑坦德可以涵盖许多当地公司，而摩根士丹利和J.P.摩根可以通过提供更深入的覆盖范围来弥补他们较小的当地团队。

"We use, like and need both kinds of research," Hickman says. Most valuable of all to him is primary research. He points to Citigroup's Mexican cement-price survey as a prime example: "It helps us to get ahead of industry trends and changes." JPMAM's Carrillo agrees on the need for a special kind of research bifocals in looking at Latin American companies. "You can get blindness from being too local or too global," he says. "You need to have both."

无论如何，普林斯顿新泽西州威廉·兰德的总结普林斯顿（Merrill Lynch）投资组合经理“分析师的质量比他或她所依据的地方更重要。”他认为，纽约克斯·丹尼尔·阿尔特曼（New Yorkbased Daniel Altman）是第1号金属和采矿队的领导者，他预测到最后跌倒，铁矿石的价格很快就会因为全球需求重大，特别是来自中国而飙升。

2003年7月骑升级淡水河谷的超越, Altman raised his price target from $22.67 to $28 on September 9, 2004, when the company's American depositary receipts were at $19.76 (prices reflect a 3-for-1 ADR split in September 2004). "Altman stuck his neck out farthest, and people gave him a lot of grief," recalls Landers. Nonetheless, in February, CVRD pushed through a 70 percent-plus hike in the price of iron ore. The Brazilian company's shares rose 52.6 percent in 2004, most of that in the final quarter of the year. (The ADRs peaked at slightly higher than $30 in March and fell to about $25 by mid-May.)

Other buy-siders praise Cement & Construction first-team leader Gordon Lee's timely downgrades of Mexican homebuilders Consorcio ARA at $43.59 and Urbi Desarrollos Urbanos at $64.75, in early February 2005. The UBS analyst downgraded based on valuation, as the stocks had run up 30 percent and 33 percent, respectively, since the beginning of the year. By mid-May the shares had fallen to $33.20 and $55.40, respectively.

Future bulletins from Latin America may be downbeat as well. UBS's Fraser anticipates that 2005 "will be more difficult," though he doesn't foresee a big correction. "The external environment is less supportive -- U.S. interest rates are rising, and the commodity cycle has peaked -- and valuations have gone up," he says. His prediction: As a group, Latin American stock markets will rise 5 to 10 percent through mid-2006. He sees Mexico as less risky than Brazil, as the former is more closely aligned with the U.S. market while Brazil trades more like a commodity. Echoing that reasoning, Charles Robertson, head of the emerging-markets economics group at ING Financial Markets in London, says, "Mexico is looking pretty good now to European investors because its currency is linked closely to the U.S. dollar."

With Latin economies still strong, Citi's Dennis finds that many "classic sentiment indicators" point toward euphoria. To Dennis, that is a powerful contraindicator. He expects Latin American equities to fall 5 to 10 percent in 2005 as global interest rates creep up, currency turbulence increases and stock valuations become stretched. Plainly, though, whether the bears or the bulls prevail, the need for good Latin American research is greater than ever.

II由II在研究业务集团Sathya Rajavelu，Research Evan Cooper的助理管理编辑，技术和发展刘易斯·诺克斯和高级编辑Jane B. Kenney的助理管理编辑主任助理管理编辑组成的助理管理编辑来自副编辑Daniel Gaviria。