U.S. of AAA?

点击此处查看排名。

The U.S. economy grew by an average annual 4.4 percent in 2004 -- its fastest expansion in five years. Even factoring in the soaring price of oil, inflation ran at a reasonable 3.3 percent, well shy of the red zone that galvanizes aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve Board. President George W. Bush's reelection in November wiped out any major uncertainties about the direction of future political policy.

Yet the sovereign-risk analysts and economists who answered亚博赞助欧冠's latest questionnaire on country creditworthiness have pushed the U.S. down in the global rankings. From No. 3 in our September survey of 173 countries, the U.S. has dropped to No. 6, with an average credit rating of 92.4 out of a possible 100, compared with 93.7 six months ago.

That incremental slip did not, however, reflect respondents' confidence in credit quality worldwide. The global average rating actually rose slightly, to 42.9, with 50 countries gaining a point or more since September, versus 48 losing as much (a 1.0-point move is considered significant). Strikingly, North America (Canada and the U.S.) is the only region whose average credit rating dropped by a point or more in the past year. At 91.6, its regional score was down 1.5 points since September and 1.3 points since March 2004. Western Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa and South and, for the year, East Asia showed smaller declines; all other regions gained.

Fiscal flabbiness in the world's biggest economy and its closest trading partners is worrying buyers of sovereign debt at the banks, money management firms and securities houses polled byII。超过44％的人表示，他们担心全球利率上升将在未来12个月内提高整体信用风险。越来越多的风险分析师认为，全球财政稳定取决于中国。近四分之一的选民在其最高风险问题中，这一国家的经济放缓与9月份只有9％。与此同时，许多人在采访中说，他们希望看到中国的生长温和，因为过热可能导致了一个通过世界经济涟漪的硬着陆。

Much of America's credit slippage stems from investors' concerns about trade. Despite a dollar that weakened alarmingly against the euro and the yen last year, U.S. exports shrank while imports ballooned, with the gap surpassing $617 billion. According to government statistics, the trade deficit trimmed real GDP growth in 2004 by a full percentage point, and private economists estimate that for the U.S. to meet official forecasts of 3.5 percent GDP growth in 2005, exports would have to increase by 10 percent -- assuming import growth holds steady -- a virtually impossible scenario.

Many also say, however, that fears of an imminent U.S.-led global slowdown are exaggerated. "A lot of the pessimism about the U.S. is misplaced," says Farid Abolfathi, chief international economist at research firm Global Insight (formerly DRI-WEFA) in Lexington, Massachusetts. "It's the only one of the developed countries that has been growing rapidly for the past couple of years. If it weren't for the U.S., we might be in a global recession right now."

In fact, Abolfathi thinks America's budget and current-account shortfalls are getting too much attention. "The U.S. can reduce its deficits if it wants to," he declares. "But there have been more important goals -- such as rescuing the world economy and fighting global terrorism." (On the second front, at least, the U.S. seems to get some recognition: Whereas six months ago 23.1 percent of survey respondents thought terrorism would present a serious risk to global creditworthiness over the following year, 18.6 percent feel that way now.)

一个力卷曲美国经济 - 能量的高成本 - 抬起了调查最戏剧性赢家的财富。与六个月前相比，上涨油价帮助尼日利亚，哈萨克斯坦，委内瑞拉和阿尔及利亚在排名中提升4.5％至5.5点。（51.8，小哈萨克斯坦的国家信用评级仍然高于巴西。）

虽然在接下来的12个月内挑选哪些国家最有可能表现出更好的信誉概况，但受访者的理由超出了石油收入。几乎五分之一的受访者引用巴西作为最有可能在未来一年中获得信用质量的国家之一;只有俄罗斯做得更好。有40.2％的选民预测，巴西的信贷将在来年改善，而9月调查中的15.4％。巴西的评级升至46.7点至46.7点，从73号攀升至67号。

与投资者的期望相反，LuizInácioLulada Silva的中央左政府已经表明，该国连续两个年仅两年的账户盈余在其皮带下 - 市场尚未从巴西看到的东西几十年。大宗商品价格和美国欧洲和中国出口的巨大需求正在加强GDP增长4％。“唯一限制了巴西港口能力的唯一限制，”穆迪投资者服务驻纽约克特董事总经理Vincent Truglia说。“他们可以卖掉他们可以发送的一切。”

IIvoters still worry about Venezuela's future creditworthiness -- but far fewer than did six months ago. In September, nearly a quarter of survey respondents cited Venezuela as one of the five countries most likely to become riskier during the next 12 months; that proportion has dropped to 13.4 percent. Enjoying double-digit GDP growth, it climbed from No. 89 in the rankings in September to No. 80 in March, and its credit rating climbed five full points, to 37.9. Oil prices are by no means the whole story. A controversial referendum last August reconfirming the presidency of Hugo Chávez Frías greatly reduced political uncertainty after a period of violent demonstrations and a strike at Petróleos de Venezuela that crippled production. Doubts remain about Chávez's fiscal discretion, but the specter of default has receded.

另一家石油生产商俄罗斯培养了风险分析师的精神分裂症。一方面，该国的信用评级上升至55.2，从六个月前增长1.7分，比去年3月高出6分。（俄罗斯仍在58号。）另一方面，较高的受访者表示，他们希望信贷质量在未来12个月内恶化。

In interviews, though, voters sound sanguine. "Russia's credit fundamentals are unbelievably strong at this point," says Blaise Antin, senior vice president and sovereign credit analyst at asset manager Trust Co. of the West in Los Angeles. "Foreign exchange reserves are so substantial that it would take a sustained period of low oil prices for creditworthiness to deteriorate significantly."

他和其他分析师引用了弗拉基米尔·普京总统的成功，在苏联混乱和练习财政纪律的情况下为苏维埃混乱提供更多命令。1月31日，标准贸易差的穆迪和惠誉促进俄罗斯主权债务投资等级。“这不是所有的标题政治风险，”艾琳德说：“俄罗斯联邦很久以前，俄罗斯联邦将在投资级别的评级。”

Government commitment to budgetary prudence also bore fruit for Turkey, whose 44.3 credit rating was up 4.3 points since September and almost 7 points since last March; Turkey advances to No. 73 from No. 76 six months ago. Nearly twice the percentage of voters this time around placed Turkey among the five countries most likely to improve in credit quality over the next year. Eager to qualify for entry into the European Union, the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has hewed to the International Monetary Fund's economic stabilization program over the past two years, and Turkey now runs a big fiscal surplus. On December 17 the EU formally endorsed it as a candidate nation, with accession talks scheduled for this October. As one survey respondent says, "Six months ago the jury was still out on whether it would get a date." This voter notes that Erdogan's party, with a majority in Turkey's congress, is likely to continue passing budgets and legislation that make the IMF -- and investors -- happy.

目前的调查发生在12月26日南亚南亚袭击亚洲南亚的灾难发生。虽然海浪在人类痛苦方面造成了不可估量的损害，但声称数十万人的生命，他们预计将仅对该地区的经济前景造成小额损失。“只有斯里兰卡将非常受到经济影响，”全球洞察力的阿富尔佐说。“泰国经济太大而无法显着影响。泰国有足够的积蓄为重建活动提供了足够的资金，因此在季度或两次的负面影响之后，下一季度将超过他们。”该国的健康账户 - 曼谷拥有500亿美元的外汇储备 - LED受访者将泰国推广五个地方排名，从第50号到第45号，其信用评级上升至62.4，比62.4升至近3点9月份，超过一年前的4分。

印度尼西亚,嗨最严重的国家t by the tsunami, got a similar vote of confidence before the disaster. Analysts moved it up the list from No. 86 to No. 81 and increased its rating to 37.7, a 4-point-plus improvement from six months earlier. More than a quarter said they expected Indonesia's credit quality to improve in 2005, compared with 9.3 percent who thought it would deteriorate. Now, they say, the country could actually benefit -- fiscally speaking -- in the storm's aftermath, from debt relief, foreign aid and reconstruction. Abolfathi even thinks Indonesia may get tourism that otherwise would have gone to Thailand or Sri Lanka; Balinese tourism is already thriving again, two and a half years after a devastating al-Qaeda nightclub bombing there.

相比之下,菲律宾已经不值得羡慕的distinction of being cited more frequently than any other country as among the ones most likely to show deteriorating credit quality. Almost 26 percent of voters named it among the five countries in which they most anticipated further credit problems in the coming year. It fell from No. 68 to No. 75 in the rankings and lost 1.4 points from its September credit rating, scoring 43.5. Respondents question President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's ability to implement healthy and sustainable economic policies. Says Robert de Lure, a Melbourne-based country risk economist at the National Australia Bank: "For one thing, the Philippines is very dependent on oil. There are concerns about continued slippage in its fiscal accounts. And there's a general trend of slowing growth throughout the region." Adds a Toronto-based voter: "I've been pessimistic on the Philippines for a long time. There's no action from the government to improve revenue collection, perhaps because there are significant investor interests that don't want higher taxes. So Arroyo is in a bind."

Asia's 800-pound gorilla, China, is the source of much anxiety among survey respondents -- but not because of its creditworthiness. The Asian juggernaut moved up one notch in the rankings, to No. 37; fewer voters expressed concern about its future credit quality than in September (20.6 percent, versus 26.9 percent six months ago); and at 66.0 its credit rating was up 0.3 point. Rather, respondents are obsessed with its growth rate. China now carries so much weight in the world economy that expectations regarding its economic performance directly affect global commodities prices.

尽管中国增长放缓是三个factors most often cited by survey respondents as one of the greatest risks to global credit quality over the next 12 months, in interviews voters seem equally fearful that the country's economy will overheat. Chinese GDP rose by an estimated 9.5 percent in 2004 -- and that growth went straight into demand for foreign goods, especially oil, of which China buys more than any country besides the U.S. The fear is that China's bottomless appetite for imports will boost inflation and add to the risk of a hard economic landing in the next year.

China is also the focus of anxieties about the weak dollar. Because the renminbi is dollar-linked, a cheap greenback boosts Chinese exports. That not only spurs growth, it also worsens the trade-deficit problem in the U.S. -- which bought 5.6 times more goods and services from China than it sold there in 2004. As a result, Washington is clamoring for Beijing to revalue the renminbi. But few analysts expect the Chinese to listen. Says one Canada-based analyst who voted in theII调查：“我相信中国将坚持下去。评估他们的货币不会帮助他们克服国内关切，如弱银行业，不足的财产部门的不足碍。”

So what will it take to improve America's finances? A big percentage of respondents think the only answer is a change of administration. When asked whether U.S. creditworthiness would improve or deteriorate as a result of President Bush's reelection, 36.1 percent said it would deteriorate, versus 3.1 percent who said it would improve. One third thought the U.S. economic outlook would dim in 2005, compared with 15.5 percent who were optimistic. "The general reaction after the election was that the problems the U.S. faces in its current-account and budget deficits probably weren't going to be addressed with any urgency," says Nigel Gault, Global Insight's chief U.S. economist.

Survey voters, speaking anonymously, confirm that sentiment. "The U.S. is a deteriorating credit story," declares one. "We've gone from big surpluses to big deficits in a relatively short time. I don't see much prospect for that turning around." Obviously, says another, the war in Iraq is a continuing budget drain that can't be reversed anytime soon. "But continued tax cuts won't help the situation," he says.

Fortunately for Washington, buyers of American sovereign paper don't seem to share the country-risk experts' gloom. "What we haven't yet seen is any significant sell-off in the Treasury market," says Gault. As a result, while the Federal Reserve continues tightening short-term money at a "measured" pace -- raising the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 2.5 percent, on February 2, the sixth such move since last June -- long-term yields have held steady. "So far the markets haven't priced long-term debt as if they are extremely worried about a dramatic move in short-term rates," says Gault. Barring a jump in inflation, then,IIsurvey respondents' fears of tight money may be overblown.

Furthermore, economists point out, the current U.S. budget deficit is not as big a percentage of U.S. GDP as it was during the 1980s. And in a February 4 speech in London, Fed chairman Alan Greenspan said the budget deficit may stabilize, as pressure has been building in Washington for more restraint on spending. He also pointed out that the U.S. economy promises to continue growing much more rapidly than those of other triple-A developed countries.

In early December a handful of credit analysts provoked an uproar by suggesting that unless Washington addressed its budgetary and trade woes, the U.S. could lose that stellar credit rating, pulling the rest of the world into a vortex. They managed to spark another dollar dump, but they were in a tiny minority. "It would take years of deterioration before that rating would be challenged," says Moody's Truglia. As theIIsurvey results show, despite the dire warnings, global creditworthiness hasn't suffered a whit.

---

Associate Editor Donovan Hervig compiled the statistics for this feature.