亚洲货币受到强劲增长、外汇储备增加的提振

强劲的地区增长、央行不断增加的外汇储备以及中国主导的货币政策转变的前景，都预示着亚洲货币今年将继续上涨。此外，当前美国和亚洲利率周期的滞后可能会推动亚洲货币的套利交易，因为交易员买入利率刚刚开始上升到更中性水平的货币，然后卖出这些货币，比如美元，收紧利率可能接近完成。

强劲的全球增长继续刺激亚洲出口需求，导致亚洲资产预期收益率上升，流入亚洲的资本不断增加。尽管美国经济增速放缓，但越来越多的迹象表明，这种转变将是一种软着陆。对亚洲最为重要的其他经济体（欧洲、日本、中国和印度）的总体增长在短期内应保持在趋势之上。

Barring any negative shocks, Asia’s export-driven growth in the first half of this year should spur domestic demand in the second half. This is likely to be particularly marked in Japan, where structural changes, improvements in the labor market and renewed corporate investment are expected to sustain recovery and restore the country’s role as an engine for pan-Asian growth. Stronger regional growth will mitigate Asia’s sensitivity to exchange rates, preparing the ground for greater tolerance for currency appreciation in the region’s economies.

Another important factor is the rapid rise in central bank reserves, especially in China. By the end of 2005, China’s international reserves totaled US$818.9 billion, compared with Japan’s US$828 billion – a 34.3% jump for China, compared with Japan’s 0.6%. Japan and China account for 40% of global reserve assets. Recent comments by China’s State Administration for Foreign Exchange saying it would “actively explore more efficient use of our foreign exchange reserves” have been interpreted as suggesting China’s foreign reserves have surpassed the levels deemed necessary for liquidity needs.

Surging reserves can not only prompt protectionist rhetoric in the U.S., but also impair domestic monetary policy as a tool for managing growth and price stability. Currency politics with the U.S. could heat up as mid-term elections in the U.S. approach. There have been signs that the U.S. Treasury could name China as a currency manipulator in its April report if China does not show greater accommodation in revaluing the renminbi. While appreciation in the renminbi could impair job creation, there is the danger that China could lose more jobs if an undervalued currency spurs protectionism in lucrative markets like the U.S.

政府缩减干预措施韩国银行以及Central Bank of Chinain Taiwan led to slower rises in reserves last year. A slowdown in the pace of reserve accumulation in China would be positive for the renminbi and possibly other regional currencies.

尽管如此，中国不太可能在短期内以任何有意义的方式摆脱美元，实现多元化。中国当局最近发表的评论显示，它们更有可能在寻求提高投资回报率的途径时，从美国国债转向美元资产。这可能导致对机构和抵押贷款的需求增加，这些机构和抵押贷款包含明确或隐含的政府支持，但相对于美国国债有利差。

Apart from U.S. pressure, China has shown a willingness to pursue a more flexible currency policy as its money supply has surged to keep the currency’s exchange rate low. This could have significant repercussions for the entire Asian region since China leads the way in terms of competitive manufacturing and, by extension, currency policy. Continued appreciation in the renminbi could catalyze policy shifts across the region as other Asian economies are able to allow their currencies to appreciate without losing competitiveness.

其他亚洲银行也开始接受一种更具活力的汇率观。这不仅有助于纠正当前的失衡，而且还将通过鼓励企业专注于高附加值产品，而不是依赖低利润率和廉价货币，提高该地区的竞争力。

与此同时，日本货币政策的潜在变化可能为整个地区货币的逐步升值提供动力。作为日本中央银行gets closer to abandoning its close-to-zero interest rates, the yen could begin to rise, taking other Asian currencies higher as well.

Rally’s Effects

而强势货币被认为是有害的for growth and corporate profits in a globalized region such as Asia, the economic impact might be less than many investors fear. It takes a fairly significant currency move to noticeably affect exports as price elasticity is small, especially in the short run. Currency strength will help hold down inflation since in principle a stronger currency lowers import prices, dragging down the prices of other tradable goods and enabling interest rate policy to remain supportive of domestic demand in Asia, which could develop as a major theme in the years ahead. This is especially important as energy prices remain high.

然而，大幅升值可能导致贸易顺差明显下降，增长大幅放缓。货币升值可以通过减缓出口和增加进口来打破贸易平衡。净出口下降将减缓经济增长，尤其是在开放经济体。假设没有抵消性的财政或货币政策，估计显示亚洲经济增长在1%贸易加权重估后的第一年将下降10-20个基点（见下表）。

Impact of 1% Trade-Weighted Appreciation on GDP Growth


当然，如果外需大幅放缓，亚洲货币的前景将发生巨大变化，外需将对国内需求和地区增长产生乘数效应。这可能发生在油价再次和长期上涨抑制全球消费的情况下，而新兴市场的另一轮爆发式增长很可能给大宗商品市场带来压力。禽流感大流行仍有可能对全球经济造成毁灭性影响。

不过，迄今为止的所有证据都表明，随着亚洲继续发展成为21世纪全球增长最重要的引擎之一，亚洲货币在未来几年将持续上涨。

ContributorSean Flannery是北美首席投资官State Street全球顾问. He is based in Boston.