大卫·卢德洛（David Ludlow）在迪拜的临时办公室里，在杂乱的纸板箱中的某个地方，有一本自学阿拉伯语的书，这位资深银行家发誓，一旦找到它，他会尽快学习。2005年4月，花旗集团任命这位前英国外交官（兼俄语发言人）领导其中东投资银行业务，作为加强对波斯湾承诺的一部分。在往返伦敦几个月后，42岁的卢德洛和他的妻子以及两岁的儿子今年搬到了迪拜。“我不需要任何说服力，”总经理Ludlow说，他决定辞去花旗东欧投资银行业务负责人的职务，帮助银行在中东投资银行业的利润。“考虑到从商业角度看的潜力，这是一个不容错过的好机会。”花旗并非海湾地区的新来者，它在海湾地区已经活跃了近50年，如今在多个国家开展业务。但它正在加强在该地区的活动，以利用经济繁荣和海湾各国政府和企业花钱和投资方式的巨大变化。去年10月，在一笔典型的高调交易中，花旗集团担任了黎巴嫩电信公司Investcom 21.9%股权在伦敦证券交易所首次公开发行（IPO）7.78亿美元的唯一全球协调人。花旗还协助Investcom在迪拜国际金融交易所上市。更多类似这样的首次公开募股以及更多投资银行业务的前景，促使花旗和其他外国投资银行在海湾地区扩张或重新设立。英国研究公司Dealogic估计，去年该地区的公司首次公开发行给银行带来了9400万美元的收入，而去年同期则为4900万美元。迪拜地区商业门户网站Zawya.com的高级资本市场分析师拉马·阿布·加利（Lama Abou Ghali）报告说，2005年海湾地区的IPO筹资57亿美元，比2004年的27亿美元增加了一倍多。该地区一半以上的公司是国有企业，这暗示着私有化前景的稳定供应。据估计，目前有多达20家大型IPO正在筹备中。投资银行业务的繁荣是由另一个地区繁荣所推动的：飙升的油价，它在4月中旬突破了每桶70美元的关口。总部位于华盛顿的国际金融研究所（Institute of International Finance）的数据显示，海湾合作委员会（Gulf Cooperation Council）的六个成员国——巴林、科威特、阿曼、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国——预计今年将创造3190亿美元的石油收入，高于2003年之前十年的平均每年1000亿美元。国际金融协会估计，这六个国家的国内生产总值在2005年增长了大约四分之一。石油的繁荣刺激了股市的飙升。自2003年以来，截至4月13日，海湾合作委员会股票市场的总资本增加了三倍，达到1.05万亿美元。银行家们表示，今年的大幅但可能是必要的调整——截至4月中旬，沙特阿拉伯股市平均下跌超过三分之一——不应被视为该地区即将陷入衰退的迹象。相反，他们建议，要注意不断上涨的石油价格，因为没有迹象表明油价会下降。海湾合作委员会成员国虽然资金充裕，但他们意识到自己在过去的繁荣中挥霍无度，决心利用自己的财富实现经济多样化，建立私人部门。在20年前的石油繁荣时期，“许多海湾资金流向了被动投资，如资产管理公司、银行存款和政府证券，”花旗集团在中欧、东欧、中东和非洲的公司和投资银行业务负责人Shirish Apte指出。“如今，大量资金投入了积极的投资，如私募股权、并购、直接投资和基础设施项目。”花旗中东投资银行首席执行官Ludlow补充道：“如果我们没有把重点放在这个地区，我们还有很多事情要做，我认为我们不会有这些事情。我们觉得这是一个被证明是正确的举动。“其他投奔海湾地区的银行家也有同样的看法。”直到两年前，所有的银行都覆盖了伦敦以外的地区，因为没有那么多的交易，Omar al Salehi在中东和北非经营瑞银的投资银行业务。“在过去的两年里，这是一个蓬勃发展的行业。所有的银行都非常忙碌。”J.P.摩根大通公司的伦敦银行分析师Kian Abouhossein估计，今年的投资银行收入将以新兴市场（包括中东）的“中间两位数”增长。发达国家的“低个位数”步伐。Alexander Lis，董事总经理兼中东地区负责人d Africa practice at New Yorkbased financial services consulting firm Mercer Oliver Wyman, concurs: "You will continue to see significantly higher growth in the Gulf region than in North America or Europe." Bankers say family-owned businesses should become a prolific source of new business. Many need counsel as much as they do fresh capital. "We see growth in corporate advisory because many high-net-worth individuals and families are considering the restructuring of family businesses," says Michael Philipp, the London-based CEO of Credit Suisse Europe, Middle East and Africa. "This will lead to IPOs, mergers and growth of the corporate bond business over time." BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse Group, Deutsche Bank, HSBC Holdings, J.P. Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley have all joined Citi in establishing or expanding operations in the Gulf, in some cases by teaming up with local firms. There appear to be plenty of opportunities to go around. "Structured finance for industrial, power-related and infrastructure projects will have a big potential in the Gulf in coming years," says Jean-Christophe Durand, BNP Paribas's regional director. "The governments have enough liquidity. In the past they had money but did not spend with long-term vision. Now they are using it more wisely." Some estimate annual project finance outlays for the Gulf states at as much as $200 billion. Durand's Gulf investment banking staff numbers 50. HSBC is putting more focus on international offerings and expanding in underexploited Gulf markets, like Kuwait, says Karim Souaid, the bank's Lebanon-born head of equities and merger advisory business in five of the GCC countries. In Saudi Arabia the bank conducts its investment banking business through HSBC Saudi Arabia, a new joint venture with Saudi British Bank. HSBC plans to boost the complement of 30 investment bankers at its Dubai regional headquarters by 15 to 20 percent. The bank generates 4 percent of its revenue from the Middle East, and investment banking accounts for a quarter of that. To be sure, not all global banks are convinced that the Gulf can sustain a thriving investment banking industry. Some bankers and analysts fret that the heightened competition for mandates is already leading to lower fees, despite a surge in demand for investment banking services. "As more international banks focus on opportunities in the region and establish a new presence there, they will have to be more competitive and underprice business to dislodge traditional international players and local ones, resulting in fee and margin compression," observes Gaby Abdelnour, chairman of J.P. Morgan for Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. The player roster in the Gulf is undeniably growing a bit crowded. The "newcomers" -- a loose term that the banks so labeled might dispute -- encompass such foreign institutions as Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley. The older hands among foreign banks include BNP Paribas, Citi, HSBC and Barclays Capital. A third contingent consists of relatively small indigenous banks that often pair with the foreign banks on distribution, research, loan syndication and other services but may aspire to become Gulf-wide investment banks in their own right. In some cases, they are well on their way, posing a challenge even to the global banks that are ensconced in the region as deal makers. Among the more notable domestic investment banks are Riyadh-based Samba Financial Group (once partly owned by Citi) and Abu Dhabibased National Investor and First Gulf Bank. The local banks possess a crucial asset: long-standing client relationships throughout the region. "As the Gulf opens up," says Credit Suisse's Philipp, "we expect to see cross-border consolidation among these players, which will then emerge as true regional competitors." As a portent of this trend, National Investor obtained a license in January to join Dubai's new international financial center, in part to wrest IPO mandates. HSBC's Souaid is not too concerned about the would-be foreign rivals setting up shop locally, emphasizing that Gulf deal making depends on long-standing and wide-reaching ties. "It's not only investing in Dubai," he notes. "It's investing in the relationship that starts in Saudi Arabia and runs through the entirety of the GCC, the Levant and North Africa." Of course, foreign banks setting up shop in a notorious hot spot like the Gulf have concerns other than well-connected competitors. "What worries me most are the political risks in the Middle East," says Souaid. Nonetheless, for now there is no shortage of business opportunities. In a search for fresh profit streams, some foreign investment banks are rethinking their strategies for GCC countries, focusing more on governments seeking advice on privatizations and on investments to reduce their reliance on volatile oil earnings; they're also cultivating family-owned companies that need advice on raising funds, reorganizing or expanding abroad. And the banks are offering investment banking services to their Arab private banking clients. Moreover, foreign investment bankers are catering to demands for Koran-based莎丽。禁止支付利息的融资。在迄今为止此类资本市场规模最大的交易中，德意志银行参与了莎丽。- 在3月份为3月份为3月份为3月份为3月份为3月份为3月份为英国港口运营商半岛和东方蒸汽导航有限公司分别在股票资本市场商业，汇丰银行和花旗集团排名第1号和第5位，分别为35亿美元的融资GCC，根据Apporic。仍然是西方标准，卷仍然很轻：汇丰银行是去年两股股票交易的书籍赛道，筹集了619万美元;花旗管理价值1.48亿美元。区域银行占据了跨位式插槽：Samba是2号;国家投资者，3号;第4号海湾银行主要是由于股权交易，花旗，德意志和汇丰银行在2005年的中东投资银行收入翻了一番。汇丰银行的交易咨询任务包括营业为5.61亿美元的基于阿联酋的公开发行达娜煤气在阿布扎比证券交易所，最大的首次公开募股发起并置于去年海湾。发售已经证明太受欢迎了。从整个地区涌入阿联酋的数千名用户，那里有资格参加Dana股票应用的大多数银行分支机构。 Many investors had to stand in long lines in the sun, and some clashed with security officials and broke doors and furniture. The issue was oversubscribed by a factor of 140, suggesting how much pent-up demand exists in the Gulf for IPO shares. In mergers Citi was the top adviser on announced transactions involving GCC companies, up from No. 5 in 2004, Dealogic reports. The bank handled six deals worth $17 billion in all; four were for more than $1 billion. M&A volume for the entire Gulf market in 2005 hit $39.8 billion, representing 173 transactions, compared with $11.3 billion and 87 deals in 2004. Citi's top mandate: advising Riyadh-based construction company Saudi Oger on its $6.6 billion purchase of 55 percent of Türk Telekom. Citi wasn't the only foreign bank to win an eye-opening mandate. UBS advised Kuwait's MTC Group on its $2.8 billion offer for 85 percent of the Netherlands' Celtel International. BNP Paribas counseled UAE-based telecom Etisalat on its $2.6 billion bid for 26 percent of Pakistan Telecommunications Co. And in the biggest and most controversial deal, Deutsche assisted Dubai Ports in its $6.8 billion bid for P&O. (That transaction, of course, caused an uproar in the U.S. when politicians realized that P&O, which runs port facilities in New York and four other U.S. cities, had been acquired by an Arab-owned enterprise, ostensibly raising security issues. Bowing to pressure, the government of Dubai, owner of Dubai Ports, agreed to sell P&O's North American operations to a U.S. acquirer within six months.) Bonds have been much less of a gusher for foreign investment banks than stocks or mergers. Volume last year was a modest $11.1 billion from just 19 transactions, though that was up from $5.4 billion on 14 deals in 2004, according to Dealogic. HSBC kept its No. 1 spot as book runner on Gulf bond deals last year, followed by Lehman Brothers and Goldman, Sachs & Co. The Gulf is becoming a more hospitable place for foreign banks. The GCC plans to establish a common currency, pegged to the dollar, by 2010, and Saudi Arabia joined the World Trade Organization in December. Both developments added impetus to regulatory reforms, which have helped attract foreign firms. "The regulatory framework in almost all of the GCC countries has evolved, and the one that has evolved the most is in Saudi Arabia," says Walid Shihabi, head of research at Dubai-based investment bank Shuaa Capital. "The more conducive the framework is, the more activity you will see." Saudi Arabia has introduced a Capital Market Authority, granted licenses to foreign banks to operate and open branches in the kingdom and raised the limit on the proportion of equity that foreign partners can hold in banking joint ventures from 40 percent to 60 percent. Bahrain, Dubai and Qatar, meanwhile, are competing to become the Middle East's financial hub. Although Bahrain has long been the heart of the Gulf's banking community, it has been outpaced lately by the new Dubai International Financial Center. The DIFC has its own independent regulator and courts; stock, bond and derivatives markets; and a zero tax rate on income and profits. It also permits 100 percent foreign ownership of financial institutions (亚博赞助欧冠，2005年12月/ 2006年1月）。迪拜中心已经吸引了瑞士信贷，德意志和摩根士丹利。花旗计划在年底举行。Deutsche - 在19世纪后期追溯到柏林到巴格达铁路的融资 - 将在杰弗里·斯普珀说，将驻扎在19世纪末的柏林到巴格达铁路的融资 - 杰弗里··斯巴普人说世卫组织在中东和北非公司领导公司的企业和投资银行业务。“随着欧洲陷入困境，海湾已经接受了，”斯普佩斯说，在转到投资银行之前为梵蒂冈的外交办公室工作。“如此，从字面上说，我们正在转移资源，以便商业机会增长。”信用瑞士正在追求类似的策略 - 瑞士银行海湾商业计划的建筑师菲律宾人毫无疑问，也许是菲利普，是一个前德意志高管，他帮助该银行扩大到全球投资银行，负责其中东业务负责。The U.S.-born Philipp, 53, who joined Credit Suisse in February 2005, says the firm intends to double the number of its investment bankers focused on the Middle East, to 30. Ten are newly installed at the DIFC, ten will be based in other Gulf countries, and ten will remain in London. Credit Suisse has entered into a joint venture, Saudi Swiss Securities, as a minority partner with a group of Gulf investment firms and private investors; it will initially employ 20 to 25 people, all local hires. "We believe that Credit Suisse has a strong advantage because the private bank has been active in the region for more than 30 years," says Philipp. "We can offer our clients investment banking advisory services as they consider options for their family businesses, on the basis of a long-standing relationship. That differentiates us from other investment banks just moving into the region." Morgan Stanley's ambitious plans for the area are being spearheaded by Georges Makhoul, who built up the firm's telecom investment banking business in Japan before moving to London to run European consumer banking. The Lebanon-born Makhoul took over as head of all the firm's business in the Middle East and North Africa last October. About 25 employees -- half assigned to investment banking and half to private banking, asset management and stock and bond sales -- occupy the firm's new office in Dubai's DIFC. "We had a change in strategy," Makhoul says. "We felt that it was critical for our business in the region to have a local presence, with locally based talent and leadership." Citigroup's Middle East push may initially entail some damage control. The bank's standing in the Gulf has suffered in recent years. In late 2002, Citi shifted $30 billion of assets -- mostly loans -- out of Bahrain, its customary regional booking center, amid mounting concern over the war in Iraq. Although those assets were returned several months later, Citi's rivals capitalized on the incident to undermine its credibility among Arabs. Then in 2004, Citi unloaded its 20 percent stake in Saudi Arabia's Samba Financial Group (the former Saudi American Bank) to the Saudi government's Public Investment Fund. The sale -- on which Citi booked a $760 million gain -- was fully in keeping with the U.S. bank's strategy of divesting minority stakes in banks worldwide. Nonetheless, it ended Citi's nearly half-century presence in the kingdom, if only temporarily. Now Citi is pursuing options to reenter Saudi Arabia. No less a personage than chairman and CEO Charles Prince visited the kingdom in April and met with Saudi Finance Minister Ibrahim bin-Abdulaziz bin-Abdullah al-Assaf; the governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Hamad al-Sayari; and the chairman of the Capital Market Agency, Jammaz bin-Abdullah al-Suhaimi. Citi has begun applying for either an investment banking or a general banking license. Meanwhile, back in Dubai, Citi's Ludlow is relocating or hiring as many as six investment bankers. J.P. Morgan Chase, whose main Gulf office is in Bahrain, also has a branch in Riyadh and is exploring whether to move bankers to Dubai and Qatar. In all, it has 35 bankers in the Middle East and plans to add at least ten more. "Our strength in the region is advice and fixed income," notes regional chief Abdelnour. He says the goal is to boost equity's share of J.P. Morgan's overall Gulf investment banking business. As newcomers scramble for footholds, HSBC benefits from being a comparative veteran in the Gulf, with strong relationships with a number of regional governments. The bank has advised on some seven privatizations in the region since 2003 and is offering guidance on three more at the moment, says the bank's Souaid. The seven include Jordan's sale of a stake in Arab Potash Co. and Oman's divestiture of its holding in the country's telecom monopoly, Oman Telecommunications Co., or Omantel. "On the regional level we're ahead of other banks," says Souaid. "It's always the international outflow of capital in which they have more focus and more people." Barclays has been focusing on debt and risk management in the GCC since 2004. Last year it climbed to No. 4 in managing regional debt deals, from well below the top ten in 2004, according to Dealogic. The bank employs ten investment bankers at its Barclays Capital unit in Dubai and "will look to increase hiring selectively," says Nicholas Hegarty, a former ABN Amro banker who joined Barclays two years ago as the managing director in charge of Middle Eastern and North African investment banking. Clients have rewarded pioneers like Citi and HSBC, but they also welcome the arrivistes. "It's clearly a strong advantage if banks have a strong presence and commitment to Dubai and they understand the region and the way we operate," says Sylvain Denis, head of direct investments at Dubai International Capital, a private equity firm owned by the government. "Hence we've done most of our big deals with HSBC so far." Still, he says, "no one wants to be dependent on one bank." Among the notable acquisitions on which HSBC has assisted Dubai International Capital are the purchases of the U.K.'s Tussauds Group, owner of the famous waxwork museums, for $1.5 billion, and of U.K. engineering company Doncasters Group, for $1.2 billion. GCC governments recognize that they must use their oil-and-gas riches to make their economies less dependent on hydrocarbons for the day the wells run dry. The UAE is at the forefront of this effort, having invested extensively in tourism and financial services. The World Bank calculates that the Emirates' nonoil exports averaged 52 percent of their total exports in the 1990s and early 2000s, in contrast to 30 percent in the 1970s and '80s.中东经济摘要据估计，到今年年底，海湾合作委员会成员国以及伊朗和伊拉克正在进行的基础设施项目的价值将增长50%，达到1万亿美元。银行家们说，在海湾合作委员会成员国中，沙特阿拉伯拥有巨大的财富、2,600万人口和对外国银行的新开放，拥有最大的投资银行业务潜力。塔塔乌尔沙特股票市场上的79家公司的总市值为7600亿美元，在全球股市中排名第十，领先于澳大利亚、中国和西班牙。去年，股票交易额增长了133%，达到1.1万亿美元;纽约证券交易所和伦敦证券交易所的同期涨幅分别为22%和10%。急于在沙特扩张的外国银行总是在寻找当地合作伙伴。2005年4月，德意志银行同意与王国控股公司(Kingdom Holding Co.)董事长阿尔瓦利德王子(Prince Alwaleed bin-Talal Abdulaziz al-Saud)旗下的一家投资公司建立合资企业。阿尔瓦利德王子是世界上最富有的人之一(估计财富为250亿美元)，他碰巧是花旗集团(Citigroup)的第二大股东。新成立的合资公司Deutsche Al Alizia Financial Services还将涉及其他几家投资者，将在沙特提供股票经纪和其他投资银行服务。瑞士信贷计划加强其在当地的合资企业——沙特瑞士证券。花旗集团(Citigroup)和摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)目前通过巴林办事处在沙特开展业务，它们正在评估在当地设立分支机构的选择。 HSBC has been active in the kingdom through Saudi British Bank, in which it holds a 40 percent stake. But it recently obtained a license to form a separate investment bank in which its stake is 60 percent and Saudi British's, 40 percent. HSBC Saudi Arabia will be run by HSBC, says the venture's managing director, Timothy Gray, who adds that HSBC plans to increase its 200-strong Saudi investment banking team by 25 percent this year. Gray notes that opportunities for investment banks in Saudi Arabia encompass equity capital markets, a nascent Eurobond and domestic Saudi bond market, project financing (particularly in petrochemicals, power and water) and莎丽。融资。他预计，今年沙特的ipo数量至少将比2005年的五宗增加一倍，2005年的ipo总价值约为20亿美元。
最令人期待的ipo是沙特最大、也是唯一未上市的银行——国家商业银行(National Commercial bank)。目前还没有公开IPO的计划。但是，随着所有的投资银行家都聚集在海湾地区，一项宣布已经不远了。