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不要让门打你
After years of hand wringing over its Indonesian investment, Mexican cement maker Cemex has finally signaled an exit from the country – hopefully with some lessons learned that it can apply elsewhere.
After years of hand wringing over its Indonesian investment, Mexican cement maker Cemex has finally signaled an exit from the country – hopefully with some lessons learned that it can apply elsewhere.
印尼的精液Gresik工人卸载袋cement. |
CEMEX在埃及和英国各国的赛道记录表明,问题可能比墨西哥人更像印尼。即使是埃克森 - 美孚,在敌对政治环境中经营数十年的经验,也处于东南亚国家的争执。
Cemex said in early May that it's set to sell a 24.9% stake in Indonesian cement company Semen Gresik for $337 million to a local conglomerate called the Rajawali group. It's short of the $500 million press reports said the company wanted, but more than the roughly $200 million it paid for the shares since 1998. Locals are rejoicing at seeing the back of a company they regarded as an intruder that threatened their way of life. Cemex is glad to be out and focus on bigger targets. Investors also celebrated the exit, sending Cemex shares up more than 5% from the time the first rumors surfaced that a departure deal from Indonesia was imminent.
债券斯诺·斯诺·斯诺·斯诺丹格,斯诺丹治研究总经理,一家基于墨西哥城的独立公司,Sumex偏离如此:“削减你的损失,摆脱头痛。专注于在其他地方创造价值。”其他地方可能包括中国或印度,Cemex拥有工作人员多年来寻找机会。在印度尼西亚和以来的经验教训可以在亚洲其他地区证明有价值,并且还部分解释了公司在识别目标方面的耐心。展望未来,CEMEX可以决定,例如,避免像印度尼西亚一样的国家 - 这在透明度国际的腐败感知指数上排名越来越低于阿富汗和刚果。
Silence is Golden
Cemex executives are refusing to comment, continuing their policy of silence on the sore subject. "Our position is the same. We are in conversations with the government to see what is the best thing for Cemex," Hector Medina, executive vice president of planning and finance, told participants in the company's first quarter earnings conference call. Analysts are writing off Cemex's Indonesia snafu as a lesson learned, a risk taken and a savvy exit from an investment gone wrong. Semen Gresik had dogged the company for years, raising questions about its ability to make wise decisions. However, the biggest take away point appears to be not to buy a minority stake when the government still controls the company. In retrospect, the venture has been a cheap lesson for Cemex along the road to becoming a global giant worth $25 billion. When Cemex decided to dabble in Indonesia, it was new to investing abroad and anxious to do so. In 1998, Cemex was the tenth largest cement producer in the world and operated in just nine countries. Today it has operations in more than 50 countries.
"Over the years, it has developed tremendous experience dealing in different countries and different operating environments. They will be doing so now with much more experience," says Felix Boni, an equity analyst at Scotiabank Inverlat brokerage in Mexico City.
Still, the experience has made Cemex cautious and it has been particularly shy of large markets, anxious to make sure its entry into Brazil, China, India and Russia does not go the same way as Indonesia. If it succeeds in those markets, the lesson will have been worthwhile. Innocent optimism, bad timing and even worse luck played against Cemex. Back in 1998, it was smiles all around as Cemex bought 14% of PT Semen Gresik, the largest cement producer in Indonesia, with an option to buy a majority stake from the government at a later date. The government was in the midst of an IMF-sanctioned effort to privatize state-owned industries after the economy collapsed, contracting 13% in that year alone. Cemex, itself a veteran of currency meltdowns, saw Indonesia as a place to expand. "Indonesia is an attractive market for Cemex and offers favorable long-term growth prospects. This investment is congruent with our strategy of prudent international diversification," Medina said at the time, in a press statement. With its crony capitalism and dominant market players, the Asian country had a Latin American feel to it.
国际货币基金组织计划及其紧缩措施,特别是政府在社会方案上减少社会课程,因为工作融化和薪水暴跌,迅速制作了批评者。这些措施在印度尼西亚提供了私有化,这是一个华盛顿邮票,使他们不受欢迎。为了使事情变得更糟,法国Lafarge和瑞士Holcim等竞争对手仍然在印度尼西亚,买了全权私营公司。由于进入印度尼西亚以来,CEMEX没有购买少数股权,这表明它比曾经是合同的信任。
Cemex has financed its worldwide expansion with cash generated at home where it dominates a market with some of the highest cement prices in the world. Regulators have so far proved toothless and the Mexican government repulsed a recent attempt to import cement into the country. On the surface, navigating politics and economics appeared similar in Indonesia. And the target was tempting.
PT Semen Gresik was already the dominant player in its national market. As well as its main unit at Gresik near Surabaya in eastern Java, it also controlled two subsidiaries: PT Semen Padang in Sumatra and PT Semen Tonasa in Makassar, Sulawesi. The subsidiaries gave Semen Gresik a strong national role in a market that saw annual growth rates in cement sales of 6% and above, despite the grinding economic crisis. The group produces 16 million tons a year of cement and controls about half of the market.
Cemex努力控制Semen Gresik在来自West Sumatra人民的Semen Padang的外国所有权中出现抗议时摇摇欲坠。对他们来说,Semen Padang是该市遗产的一部分,并声称它建在祖国土地上,Padang的当地人要求该公司与Semen Gresik分开。在2001年的一个阶段,正如政府准备销售其对CEMEX的股份一样,抗议者绑架了董事会,要求他们签署拒绝这笔交易的陈述。他们签署了,将交易投入危险。
The government realized it was between a rock and a hard place. Then minister for state-owned enterprises, Laksamana Sukardi, tried a persuasive approach. Noting that the government needed to raise nearly $750 million through the privatization of state-owned companies, he said "this is about the interests of the nation...I hope that they [the people of Padang] can understand that." The people of Padang didn't understand, while in Makassar there were similar rumblings about selling-off Semen Tonasa. There was talk of a spin-off of the two companies, but no action.
印度尼西亚的高级经济部长,由博伊奥诺的单一名义,于4月份承认,私有化问题仍然是印度尼西亚的棘手。“我们没有提出国有企业的扎实私有化计划,”博伊奥诺告诉外国记者。“政治辩论非常激烈。”
亚慱体育app怎么下载文化冲突
While the government clearly fell short of meeting its obligations to Cemex, many believe that Cemex itself has to take some of the blame for the failure to produce a happy ending. One Indonesian official who was closely involved in dealings with the Mexican giant, and who asked not to be named in this story, says Indonesians were appalled by the arrogance of Cemex representatives. "Look at the structure of their organization," he says. "They never even had an Indonesian human resources manager, they flew someone in from Mexico. They applied the tactics they had used in Latin America, what they called post-merger integration, which meant a complete takeover by their own people. I have no idea how they managed to get work permits for so many people, everyone was Mexican or Spanish.
Cemex在联交所建筑办公室的访问者很少见到任何印度尼西亚人。他们所雇用的当地工作人员停在一个没有任何关系的房间里。当CEMEX官员与印度尼西亚人互动时,他们倾向于让他们烦恼。“我试图向其中一个律师建议他们需要对当地文化更敏感,”一位一次要求不被命名的一次性顾问说。亚慱体育app怎么下载“他告诉我他们有钱,所以这是印度尼西亚人需要了解墨西哥文化。”亚慱体育app怎么下载
印度尼西亚文化价值高于亚慱体育app怎么下载全部的礼貌行为。这些内部人士说,CEMEX高管忽略了任何尝试融入的人,并在人们喊叫。来自公司始终如一地赢得投资世界的竞争效果相当鲜明对比。首席执行官洛伦佐Zambrano通常被描绘成一个有远见的人,他在拉丁美洲以外的CEMEX占据了CEMEX,并为该地区其他公司铺平了道路,以遵循全球道路。
"Cemex has done a fabulous job. It executes well year after year, It has a proven track record at integrating large acquisitions," says Matthew Hickman, director of Latin American Equities for Credit Suisse Asset Management.
Drop in the Bucket
Semen Gresik宣布了2005年4月,报告审计净利润为11620万美元,几乎是前一年的人物的双倍,销售增长较强。虽然2006年在去年两轮燃料价格上升后,2006年经过两轮燃料价格疲缓的需求,但该公司仍在提高25%的收入增长,收入接近10亿美元。它计划提供新的东爪哇植物来服务全国市场。
该公司控制印度尼西亚市场的45%,并有主要基础设施驱动的计划,并希望经济将从年底燃料价格上涨造成的低迷,CEMEX可能继续在其上获得固体回报投资。但是,鉴于CEMEX去年的净利润为21亿美元,印度尼西亚的运作将不会受到严重遗漏。
An advisor to Holcim, who asked not to be named in this story, says a lot of the difference between the Swiss company's success and Cemex's failure was a matter of style. "Holcim came in very quietly and retained most of the Indonesian executives. They didn't make any of the noise that Cemex did."
Back in Monterrey, Cemex executives have shown restraint and rarely even imply a criticism of the Indonesian government. Instead, they have quietly filed a suit with the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes. Arbitrators are due to meet in July to decide the case.
现在,他们可能没有。