Media: Publishing and Advertising Agencies

Craig Huber

First Team

Craig Huber

Lehman

Second Team

Alexia Quadrani,Bear Stearns

Third Team

Paul Ginocchio,Deutsche

Runners-Up

Peter Appert,Goldman Sachs; William Bird,Citi

On the first team for a second straight year, Craig Huber, 40, offers “high-conviction bearish views,” says one client, citing the Lehman Brothers analyst’s long-standing negative stance on the nine newspaper stocks he follows. He first downgraded them in October 2004, citing declines in circulation and advertising sales, and has not seen anything since to lead him to change his view, which has been correct: On average they have trailed the broad market by 23.3 and 21.3 percentage points, respectively, in 2005 and 2006, and were behind by 18.6 percentage points in 2007 through mid-September. Alexia Quadrani of Bear Stearns, who is second for a fourth consecutive year, “knows the space better than anyone else on the sell side,” according to one impressed investor. That knowledge prompted Quadrani to recommend Arbitron, a media services research firm based in New York, and London-based advertising agency WPP Group last October, citing the growth prospects of both companies. Through mid-September their shares had jumped 25.8 and 11.5 percent, respectively. Paul Ginocchio of Deutsche Bank Securities debuts in third. Clients praise his October 2006 upgrade of Dow Jones & Co. on his belief that the New York–based financial news company was undervalued at $32.75. In May, after the stock had soared 70.8 percent, to $55.94, Ginocchio urged investors to take profits. By mid-September the stock was trading at $59.29.