当美国次级危机爆发时代前，中国似乎是聚会风暴中的绿洲。该国蓬勃发展的经济提供了一个新的发电机，以取代花费美国的消费者，而艰难的金融机构为北京提供了一只远线，看到中国1.6万美元的外汇储备作为急需资本来源。中国政策制定者同样充满信心：他们继续通过提高储备要求，尽可能多地提高六月以遏制通货膨胀，他们认为是更大的纪念。
然而，今天，希望中国可能会逃避金融危机的堕落。该国的经济最近几个月显着放缓，增长率在第二季度减速到年初10.1％，从2007年的第一个和11.9％下降到11.9％;官员称，增长可能会进一步缓慢至9至9.5％。虽然通过全球标准令人羡慕这样的速度，但中国当局担心每年需要估计的2000万就是足够的工作，以吸收进入该国城市的移民。
Even more worrying, China’s financial markets have been whipsawed by the global turmoil. The benchmark CSI 300 index, which soared 161.5 percent in 2007, was down 58 percent this year through late last month. The country’s real estate market has also cooled off dramatically in recent months, a development that, if sustained, could generate losses at big Chinese banks. Far from being insulated from the global economy, China is being buffeted by the ill winds blowing from the U.S., Europe and Japan.
“我没有看到中国在美国的规模上崩溃了金融危机，但不过这一影响将是重要的，”基于上海的独立经济学家安迪谢说。"Roughly 40 percent of China’s gross domestic product is dependent on exports, and China trades a lot with the U.S. A lot of hot money came to China on the expectation of the rapid appreciation of the renminbi, and a lot of this money will go back to the U.S. This will hurt China’s real estate, and this means the banking system will see rising nonperforming loans again. China cannot escape these global trends."
中国不是独自一人。许多新兴市场suffered financial turmoil and a sharp slowdown in growth in recent months, dealing a blow to the idea that these countries had decoupled themselves from developments in the traditional industrial countries. The MSCI emerging markets index was down 30.3 percent late last month from the end of 2007, compared with a drop of 18.1 percent for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. One of the biggest losers was Russia. The country’s stock market tanked, and several banks failed, after foreign money exited the country following Russia’s conflict with neighboring Georgia in August and sharp criticism of steel and mining company Mechel by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
“这不仅仅是一个打嗝，”莫斯科德意志银行的研究领袖yaroslav lissovolik说。“它提醒我们，俄罗斯确实是新兴市场。它需要更多的改革和更多的机构投资者。”亚博赞助欧冠
Like most other emerging markets, China’s direct exposure to the U.S. crisis is still relatively small. After Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy last month, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the country’s largest lender, disclosed that it held $151.8 million in Lehman debt, Bank of China said it had $128.8 million and China Construction Bank announced exposure of $191.4 million. But the rapid-fire series of bankruptcies on Wall Street caught Chinese officials and financial experts off guard.
“美国必须从中国和其他地方遣返许多现金来拯救自己，”浙江大学杭州西南部杭州市杭州市管理学院的产业战略教授yeo林说。“亚洲和中国与全球经济联系在一起，该地区仍然高度依赖于全球投资来推动增长。我没有看到我们毫发逃脱。”
幸运的是，对于中国而言，当局有足够的资源，以尽量减少危机的影响。在雷曼破产的日子里，政府在努力支持坍塌市场的股票买卖器中消除了印记职责。中国投资公司，全国2000亿美元的主权财富基金，宣布正在购买国家控制银行，包括工商银行，中国银行和中国建设银行。国家资产监督管理委员会表示，它正在努力购买一些公开的国家控制股份，以减轻上海证券交易所的波动。上个月中央银行将其主要利率降低了27个基点，达到70％，六年的首次削减。
Laurie Cang表示，中国银行队在北京信用社穆迪的银行分析师表示，中国没有走向银行危机。在银行系统中约有3％的贷款是不现实的，而在政府注入数十亿美元的情况下，只有五年前的20％，以便在银行书籍上筹备糟糕的贷款为他们的公开上市。“我们相信，在过去五年中，主要银行加强了金融基础，”沧说。“我们看到盈利能力和资产质量的提高。”
Property prices have begun to fall though, putting pressure on banks that lent heavily to speculators, says Guan Anping, a Beijing-based securities lawyer and former government official. Some large developers are cutting prices by as much as 30 percent, he notes.
"We do see this as a challenge," says Moody’s Cang. "We don’t see a subprime crisis occurring in China. Still, we can’t rule out that there is speculative investing out there."
In Russia, meanwhile, share prices have been sliding since early summer, along with oil prices and global investor confidence. Prime Minister Putin rattled business executives and investors by accusing Mechel of tax evasion and by allowing immigration officials to force executives of oil giant BP out of the country. Stock prices tumbled by 9 percent after Russia sent troops into Georgia in August.
杠杆展出的展望恶化了市场影响。合法地，俄罗斯证券买家可以借用不超过60％的购买价格。但大多数交易都在海上安顿下来，因此莫斯科武装资产管理研究总监Alexander Golovtsov表示，延伸到30比1的真正杠杆率为30比1，据俄罗斯莫斯科的武装资产管理主任，占俄罗斯资产的约40亿美元。俄罗斯银行，随着信贷市场在过去一年收取的信贷市场收紧，依赖于回购交易的依赖，通过销售证券和承诺以后购买现金来增加现金。当投资者在美国出来的坏消息上销售股票 - 雷曼兄弟的破产并赶紧政府救助美国国际集团 - 保证金呼吁被迫银行转储他们持有回购的股票，创造一个溃败。“私人投资者自己为自己做了这一点，”基于莫斯科的红星资产管理董事长詹姆斯芬卡纳表示。“你不能在政府上责怪这一点。”
Russia’s considerable resources — the country has the third-largest stash of foreign exchange reserves after China and Japan — enabled the government to put a floor under the market, though. On September 19, President Dmitry Medvedev announced that the Central Bank of Russia would put $44 billion on deposit with the country’s three biggest banks, all of them state-controlled: Sberbank, VTB Group and Gazprombank. Two days later the state made an additional $16 billion available to 25 commercial banks and freed up an estimated $12 billion more with a temporary cut in bank reserve requirements. On September 29, Putin said the government would provide an additional $50 billion to Vnesheconombank to pay foreign debts of Russian companies. The government also cut oil export taxes by about $5.5 billion and delayed quarterly value-added tax payments due on October 1.
投资者通过对他们的基本面沉没到岩石底部的股票作出反应。Sberbank和VTB在市场Nadir的一年的利润中受到重视。救援计划揭幕后，两股股票均超过50％。“我们没有看到对任何其他国家危机的有效反应，”Golovtsov说。
尽管如此，投资者仍然想知道修复程序将持续多长时间。俄罗斯金融机构借着借助该国泡沫房地产市场的资金。莫斯科公寓价格在过去几年中有三倍，到每平方米的15,000美元，商业租金是世界上最高的。在9月休克后，信贷将收紧，许多发展项目失败，专家预测，尽管Kudrin将额外的6000亿卢布倾销纳入国家基金以帮助房地产贷款人的承诺。“主要建筑物将会有一段非常严重的机会，并将借给他们的银行将留下损失，”全球开发人员遗产的莫斯科搭档搭配李天星说。
The ratio of nonperforming loans could jump to 5 percent from the current 1 percent, predicts Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa-Bank, the country’s largest privately owned bank. Second-tier players among Russia’s 1,200 banks may be in for a turbulent time. "We expect that a lot of banks will have to sell their assets and become part of an industry consolidation," she says.
趋势已经开始。莫斯科最大的独立经纪人经销商的资本资本证明，它通过销售了5亿美元的股票，以5亿美元的俄罗斯寡头队销售了5亿美元的俄罗斯寡头，这是一名俄罗斯奥尼格·诺尔·诺尔估值是在两年前向VTB提供了VTB的诉讼程序的四分之一的宗旨。KIT金融，一个较小的经纪人通过宣布推出市场恐慌，无法履行其所有付款义务，似乎易于向领导者销售，这是一个管理天然气公司的养老基金的加盟补充剂。和vnesheconombank，前苏联硬币垄断，买了博罗瓦兹银行，俄罗斯20日。
"A lot of people in Russia thought we had decoupled from global markets thanks to high oil prices," Alfa-Bank’s Orlova comments. "Now we understand that we haven’t.