Sell-side equity research analysts have been at the epicenter of the subprime-mortgage-triggered temblor that has convulsed Wall Street over the past year and reshaped the U.S. financial landscape. As they have worked to guide their clients through potentially the most devastating and far-reaching financial catastrophe to hit the U.S. since the Great Depression, they have also had to worry about the stability of their jobs, their firms and their own financial futures.
对于许多分析师来说，那些恐惧得到了很好的成就。一个银行陆及落后于信贷危机的受害者：熊队的COS。由JPMORGAN Chase＆Co.在政府支持的收购中获得了jpmorgan Chase＆Co。上个月，雷曼兄弟们在未能找到买方后宣布破产，尽管有一天之后，巴克莱宣布将收购一些公司的资产，包括其高度重视的研究业务。Merrill Lynch＆Cope同意由美国银行公司购买Wachovia Corp.同意将其零售银行资产销售给花旗集团，然后改变了课程并同意通过Wells Fargo＆Co.的全部获得。高盛，摩根士丹利现在是商业银行。
尽管有动荡，分析师们一直关注投资者，这些投资者在看似无穷无尽的负面经济新闻中寻求建议和保证，道琼斯工业平均水平的三位数波动，导致抵押贷款缉获的政府干预-lending giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and insurance behemoth American International Group, and the forced sale of the nation’s biggest savings and loan, Washington Mutual — not to mention the controversial $700 billion bailout of the financial system.
“The sell side is a service business, and our top priority is our clients,” says Mark Schoenebaum, an analyst at Bear Stearns until June, when he accepted an offer from Deutsche Bank Securities. “Our clients, on average, are suffering too, and it’s our job to think of ways to help them. We need to keep doing what we do best and keep from being distracted.”
雷尔曼兄弟美国股权研究总监的斯图尔特林德在采访时在公司提起破产保护前的采访中分享了类似的情绪。“我们所有的分析师都在这里，在他们的办公桌前，为客户提供服务 - 这就是我们所做的，而且我们比任何人都更好，”他说。
Linde is justifiably proud of the work his team at Lehman has done. Polling for the 2008 All-America Research Team survey was completed in July, the votes tabulated in August, and in what can only be called a bittersweet victory, investors declared Lehman’s researchers the best in the business for a sixth straight year.
The Lehman team — now a part of Barclays Capital, which receives credit in our rankings — widens its lead over No. 2 JPMorgan, capturing 45 total positions, one more than last year, compared with JPMorgan’s 38, the same as in 2007. Merrill Lynch jumps two spaces, to No. 3, capturing 36 positions, six more than last year. Citi, with 33 positions, slips one spot, to fourth place, while UBS zooms from eighth place to fifth, with 26 positions. The ranking is based on responses from more than 3,000 investment and portfolio managers at more than 830 firms — including 87 of the 100 biggest U.S. equity managers — that manage an estimated $12.7 trillion in U.S. equities.
The upheaval on Wall Street is reflected in our results, with 19 of the No. 1–ranked analysts new to the spot since last year — and 13 of those appearing on top for the first time. The photographs beginning on page 67 introduce some of the analysts who are enjoying their debut appearances in the winner’s circle, including Anthony DiClemente, top-ranked in Radio & TV Broadcasting, who moved to Barclays Capital after its parent acquired Lehman Brothers last month; Charles (Brad) Hintz of Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., No. 1 in Brokers & Asset Managers; Mark Mahaney of Citi, No. 1 in Internet; and Heather Wolf of Merrill Lynch, who captures the crown in Banks/Midcap.
其中一些新的领导者取代了熟悉的面孔。Victor Miller IV，在前六年的广播电视广播中，6月改变了职业，在他的前雇主熊僵尸之后被JPMORGAN收购。Miller成为Godtube.com的首席服务官，这是一个主题主题的网站，总部位于德克萨斯州普莱诺州。Anthony Noto前五年的互联网第1号，将高盛萨赫在1月份成为全国足球联盟的首席财务官。
几位前熊史德斯人分析师向新公司转型，而不会失去其排名第一的状态。Joseph Greff和Andrew Steinerman分别搬到了JPMorgan，并在第三年和第四年的商业和专业服务中举办了摩尔根·摩尔根和第1次，分别为第四年。Edward Wolfe于4月推出了他自己的公司Wolfe Research，并连续第六年举行机票和地面运输顶部。
Schoenebaum, who moved from Bear to Deutsche Bank and extends his reign as the top-ranked researcher in Biotechnology to a fourth consecutive year, says he has “total empathy” for analysts facing uncertain futures as their firms are acquired by former rivals. “When Bear blew up, I hoped for the best and assumed the worst,” he says. His transition has been relatively smooth, he explains, because “the client base is very similar,” and he has spent much of the past few months rewriting reports, updating financial models and establishing a rapport with his new colleagues. “The challenge is to earn my stripes internally, get to know the institutional sales force and gain their respect,” Schoenebaum adds. “Without that, it’s very difficult to maintain a franchise externally with clients.”
Managed Care analyst John Rex, the only Bear Stearns health care researcher hired by JPMorgan, also succeeds in retaining his No. 1 ranking — for a fifth year running.
“I will never forget that week,” Rex says of Bear Stearns’ March meltdown. “I was in my own world at a London health care conference when my sector imploded and Bear was getting hit as well. I remember crossing time zones and going 50 hours with very little sleep. I had no idea what I was coming back to, because I had never been through anything like that before.”
Rex says it was important to maintain his research output, because “when stocks are moving rapidly — especially when they are moving down — there is always a correlation with a rising need for information.”
Thomas Schmidt, research director at Rex’s new firm, agrees that there has been a surge in demand from investors. “This year we have been seeing once-in-a-lifetime events, and clients are looking to rely on experienced analysts,” he says. “We are being asked for more guidance than in the past.”
增加资金管理者的期望,计谋pled with the opportunity to choose the top people from two research departments while keeping the analyst head count stable, at 75, compelled the JPMorgan integration team “to make sure we had only the best people, so we would be stronger after the merger,” Schmidt says. “We didn’t always take who might appear to be the obvious candidate, and our decisions were based on the long term, not just the next six months. In the end, we got just about everybody we wanted, and there were some talented people at JPMorgan who were let go. It was not easy.”
林德，现任巴克莱首都美洲股权研究总监面临着略有不同的挑战。“巴克莱在雷曼收购之前没有股权研究部门，他们现在很兴奋，”他解释道。“来自Lehman的美国的每个人都会转移过 - 我们没有丢失单一股权分析师。”
Fixed-income analysts at the combined firm face a far less certain future: Barclays Capital already had a fixed-income research department before picking up the 165 credit analysts Lehman employed. In a statement released one week after the acquisition, Richard Ricci, chief operating officer of Barclays’ investment banking business, said the firm is “evaluating where we have overlap between Lehman and Barcap employees.” Barclays has set aside $2.5 billion to cover potential severance and retention costs. Decisions about which former Lehman employees will be offered permanent positions will be made in December.
Linde says his first priority at the new firm was to get information into the hands of clients. “We launched coverage of 700 companies the week after we moved to Barclays,” he says, “and another 300 a few days after that.” The 74-member equity research team had tracked 1,100 companies at Lehman, and Linde says they will be back to that level of coverage very soon.
另一个目标是促进relationships between equity and fixed-income analysts. “Every time we make a call, we should ask the best way to express it — should it be a straight equity call? Is there an opportunity in derivatives? Our coverage should be as broad-based as possible, utilizing all of the talent we have available here.”
The financial crisis is accelerating client demand for a more holistic view of their investments, and research departments are responding accordingly. “We now have our fixed-income and equities departments on an open floor, and there is a lot more collaboration,” explains Steven Tighe, head of Americas equity research for Merrill Lynch. “We are taking a much more integrated approach, looking not just at stocks but also fixed income, derivatives and foreign exchange. Investors need to know whether a company is highly leveraged or not and whether companies have access to the credit markets.”
Merrill By Bofa的收购预计将于1月份完成，将导致相当大的分析师重叠。事实上，在今年的36次对Bofa Ten的调查中加入Merrill的36个全团队职位将导致美国的Banc of America Securities的Topping今年的全美研究团队探索。
Saying “this is a sensitive time,” owing to the impending acquisition, Tighe declined to give exact numbers for his analyst head count, acknowledging only that “it’s down slightly from a year ago — but we haven’t pulled back from any areas. We’ve had to be more efficient with our coverage.”
One way the firm has done that is by taking a more regional and, in some cases, worldwide approach to research. As to coverage of telecommunications companies, for example, “we think in terms of North American coverage, not just the U.S., with one analyst handling the entire region,” Tighe says. “Paper and packaging is truly global, and our analyst follows stocks in Europe, North America and emerging markets. We have a lot of analysts around the world, and they work together as a global group.”
花旗乔纳森罗斯·韦格（Jonathan Rosenzweig）是Citi的美洲研究总监，他的公司正在采取类似的方法。“客户对全球背景有很多感兴趣，他们希望分析师能够跨越各地和跨越资产课程的分析师，”他说。“当分析师只在自己的特许经营权，孤独时，日子已经结束。您需要与其他分析师合作，因为部门交织在一起，特别是经济面临着如此多种不同的挑战。“
Citi has 350 analysts in 23 locations around the world, and they cover 3,100 stocks in 58 countries. The analyst head count is down about 7 percent from last year, Rosenzweig says.
This year’s biggest gainer, Credit Suisse, which vaults from No. 11 to No. 7, was among the few firms to increase its U.S. equity analyst head count over the past year, from 63 to 67. The firm is also taking a more broad-based approach to research.
“People don’t see value solely in finding out whether a particular company has won another contract to add to revenue growth — they want to understand the way markets as well as sectors function,” says Lara Warner, director of U.S. equity research. “It’s challenging to build a culture that can operate across borders, and it is not done cheaply, but this is what clients are demanding.”
For a more in-depth look at the All-America Research Team, click here to viewThe Best Analysts of the Year。