拉丁美洲的令人惊叹的弹性

Buoyed by surging worldwide demand for commodities, Latin American equity markets have been steaming ahead, -slowed -only -briefly by the U.S.-sparked subprime mortgage crisis and worldwide liquidity crunch. The MSCI emerging--markets Latin America index gained 28.0 percent in -local currency terms (45.2 percent in dollar terms) for the 12 months -ended mid-May, outpacing the 20.0 percent (23.1 percent) advance of the MSCI emerging--markets index and trouncing the 7.8 percent (3.1 percent) loss of the MSCI world -index.

“The extent to which the -local economies and capital markets have been isolated from external events — and have held up relatively well — points to a turnaround in -many of the key -Latin America economies in terms of fiscal positions, including significant foreign exchange re-serves,” explains Adam Quinton, New York–based director of Latin American equity research at -Merrill Lynch.

Damian Fraser, UBS Pactual’s Mexico -City–based director of Latin American research, agrees: “Economies are in good shape, companies are generating lots of profit, banks are sound, and the governments are pursuing sensible macroeconomic -policies.”

拉丁美洲 - 高质量市场在全球经济崩溃期间展示的韧性增强了对该地区的投资者兴趣，提高了对 - 高度分析的需求，促使 - 申请投资银行扩大他们的研究部门，增加他们的研究部门。-Credit -Suisse added four Latin American -equity analysts last year, for a total of 24, and increased its coverage universe by more than 30 percent, to 153 companies, according to -Roberto Attuch, the firm’s São Paulo–based co--director of Latin American -equity research.

扩张印象深刻，购买 - 私人名称为2008年拉丁美洲研究团队的领导人，机构投资者的第16次年度排名在该地区的最重要的研究提供者。亚博赞助欧冠结果反映了375个买方分析师和投资专业人员在230个机构的意见，该专业人员在拉丁美洲的大型方面统计地管理了3230亿美元。

瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)从第二位,另一侧ures 18 total team positions, four more than last year, including six first-place finishes, double its number in 2007. UBS Pactual slips from first to second, with 17 team positions; the firm held its research department head count to 32 but added coverage of 40 more stocks last year, for a total of 185 companies, Fraser says. Rising one notch each, to third and fourth place, respectively, are Merrill Lynch (12 positions) and Santander Investment Securities (nine). Merrill added four Latin America analysts last year and plans to add two more, according to Quinton. Santander went on a hiring spree in 2007: Its research department grew by nearly 50 percent, to 44 analysts, according to Cristián Moreno, New York–based head of Latin America equity -research.

jpmorgan在六个出版分析师增加其拉丁美洲研究人员之前从第七次延长到第五个分析师。“我们非常重点是纽约，但我们认为我们需要牛肉的决定 - 本地存在，所以我们一直把墨西哥墨西哥，巴西和乔里送到公司，并建立更多的区域存在，“圣地亚哥的Ben Laidler，瑞银·普通州的瑞银·契量策略师，在十月搬到了-JPMoran队朝上拉丁美洲 - 高度研究和S-Trategy。

Bolstering local coverage is increasingly important as Latin American countries establish individual market identities in the eyes of investors. In recognition of the rising dominance of -local markets, we are shining a spotlight on the four top--ranked team leaders who direct equity coverage on a countrywide basis; all four lead No. 1 teams for the first time this year.

巴西当然，塔--Over-其他拉丁美洲 - 高价市场;the benchmark Bolsa de Valores de São -Paulo, or -Bovespa, index skyrocketed 41.5 percent in the 12 months -ended May 15. Attuch, 39, who guides -Credit -Suisse’s Brazil squad up one notch to No. 1, says the country’s good times are not -likely to end soon. “We believe that -credit supply expansion and a shift in consumer habits will play an important role for -local equities -over the next few years,” explains Attuch, a Universidade de Brasília economics graduate who joined Banco de Investimentos Garantia in 1993 and assumed coverage of all Latin American banks five years later, after CSFB acquired -Garantia.

团队的首选在过去的一年里包括oil com-pany Petróleo Brasileiro, recommended in June at 27.20 reais ($14.19), on improving financials heading -into the third quarter. “We have held the stock as our top pick, -firmly confident in Petrobras’s case of multi-year upstream expansion, exploratory success, upgraded refining profitability and gas integration,” says Attuch. By mid-May the stock had sizzled up 107.4 percent, to R56.40.

“The team’s strategy reports and agricultural, mining and oil analyses are, in my view, value--adding and -timely,” declares one portfolio -manager.

Although its stock market has not performed as well as Brazil’s, Mexico has been moving away from its dependence on the U.S. economy and is enjoying vibrant growth. Tomás Lajous, who captains UBS Pactual’s Mexico team from -runner-up all the way to the top, notes the resilience of the country’s benchmark Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones in the face of the subprime crisis: The IPC gained 6.5 percent in the 12 months -ended May 15; during the same period the Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost 5.2 percent.

“关键风险仍然是 - 玻璃 - 忏悔尚不清楚，但我们认为墨西哥是防御性的，因为政府债务水平低;墨西哥企业有般的健康，现金丰富的资产负债表;而消费者对债务的小额债务感到沮丧，“墨西哥城的Lajous说，29人在2003年加入瑞银，在从纽约的数学硕士学位后加入瑞银。

在过去一年的最高一年中，墨西哥最大的手机运营商AméricaMóvil。Lajous于2007年1月推荐其美国存款收益，44.25美元，“基于2010年通过公司的预期增长， - 通过渗透率提升和增强的交通模式和达达收入”。截至5月中旬，价格上涨了31.5％，达到58.19美元，而Lajous仍然存在。

An even more impressive pick: the ADRs of Mexico’s biggest television broadcaster, -Grupo Tele-visa, which the team recommended in February, at $21.94. “The shares were trading just 5.5 percent above their near-18-month lows,” Lajous explains. “At these levels, valuation is at an estimated 7.3 times 12-month forward ebitda, a discount to the Mexican market’s 7.5 times.” By May 15 the ADRs had soared 24.5 -percent.

Investors are ecstatic. “I believe that Lajous’s team is very well informed — their research takes -into account a -broader view of issues than most analysts do,” says one -money man-ager. “They are -also efficient in communicating it to -clients.”

Alonso Aramburu, 36, who leads Santander’s North Andean Countries team up one notch to first place, “rightly called the strong -rally in -Peru, and by visiting local com-panies with him, I could witness the good access and detailed knowledge he has with those companies,” says one enthusiastic investor. One of the companies Aramburu told clients to buy was Credi-corp, Peru’s biggest financial ser-vices outfit, which he -deemed “the most attractive stock to play the -macro growth of the Peru-vian economy,” owing to its high liquidity and strong earnings growth and the improving profitability of its insurance and pension fund assets. From Aram-buru’s -July buy recommendation through May 15, the share price had -risen 25.8 percent, even as inflation fears and tight credit drove the Lima Stock Exchange down 25.0 percent.

Another winning pick: Cia. de Minas Buena-ventura, Peru’s biggest publicly traded precious--metals mining com-pany. The Santander team recommended its ADRs in October, at $52.84, -based in part on an anticipated rise in production at all of the com-pany’s operating units. By mid-May the price had shot up 19.8 percent, to $63.30.

在波哥大，加拉加斯和-Lima有分析师的Aramburu指示他认为纽约的覆盖范围，他认为是一种独特的优势。“它为您提供了对整个拉丁美洲地区的更好的视角，以及在这种环境中的安踏地区的背景下，”他说。

Clients agree. “Alonso is one of the few regional analysts providing consistent coverage on those countries,” says one port-folio man-ager. “He drills down from his -macro call into well--articulated, specific investment -cases.”

1994年，赢得了宾夕法尼亚州沃顿省沃顿省沃顿省商务学院的MBA的Aramburu是 - 福利，遗体和合作伙伴，纽约的合作伙伴和收购精品店，专注于拉丁美洲公司，在加入桑坦德2003年之前。

A colleague of Aramburu’s, Francisco Errandonea, took the reins of Santander’s Chile team last fall from Raimundo Valdés, who moved to New York to become executive director of the firm’s Latin America equity sales. He steers the squad to a fifth straight year on top. Errandonea, 30, joined Santander in 2003 after earning a bachelor’s degree in civil industrial engineering from Universidad de Chile. Although the Chilean economy is evolving more -slowly than those of -other -Latin American countries, owing to high inflation and limited -credit, Errandonea and his Santiago--based team have identified money-making opportunities for investors. Last August the team recommended Empresas Copec, Chile’s biggest conglomerate in terms of market capitalization, with subsidiaries in fishing, forestry and petroleum, believing the com-pany would benefit from the positive outlook for softwood pulp prices. “Considering the scarcity of pine pulp and the fact that Copec is the Latin American pulp producer with the highest exposure to that kind of pulp, we viewed it as the best way for exposing to that market,” says Errandonea. In January, after the stock had gained 3.7 percent, compared with a 22.4 percent decline in the benchmark IPSA index, Errandonea told investors to take -profits.

“桑坦德队是一个可靠的来源，他们的学生是助人的，”一个客户说。“分析师 - 基于国内市场 - 基于纽约或其他地方的分析师更好的公司。”鉴于急于将分析师放在拉丁美洲的帝国经济体中的地面上，投资银行似乎已经到来。