由于银行家和政策制定者在本月晚些时候为美国国际发展银行的年会汇编，聚会所在地 - Medellín - 讲关于东道国，哥伦比亚的政治和经济转型的批量。
就在几年前，很少有外国金融家会敢于在这个城市踏上。HEDELLINGSNED的全国最臭名昭着的毒品卡特塞尔之一的所在地，被绑架和无情的暴力困扰着。政府在很大程度上在很大程度上制服了哥伦比亚的左翼游击队和右翼准军事团体的肌肉贸易，并在大部分地区互相战斗。死亡小队，丛林毒品实验室，用毒品购买的政客：所有人都在一个国家被暴力撕裂的国家，这是60年的更好的部分。
That Colombia can hardly be found today. The country has enjoyed an unprecedented economic boom in recent years, thanks to the tough security policies and pro-market stance of the government of President Álvaro Uribe. Since first being elected in 2002, Uribe has used billions of dollars in U.S. aid to crack down on drug-funded insurgents and regain control over much of the country’s territory. The greatly enhanced security, combined with the government’s fiscal discipline and business- and trade-friendly policies, has attracted a surge of foreign investment. The economy has enjoyed its strongest performance in 50 years, with growth jumping to a peak of 7 percent in 2007.
然而，今天，美国领导的全球经济衰退威胁要破坏这些收益。哥伦比亚经济急剧放缓，2008年增长易于增长率为3.4％，预计今年将进一步下沉，因为石油产品价格和其他弥补该国总量的出口的其他商品的急剧下降。财政部预测2009年增长3％，但中央银行预测速度仅为1％，摩根士丹利估计1.5％。像许多拉丁美洲货币一样乘坐不到一年前的哥伦比亚比索，在过去的八个月里，在过去的八个月里下挫了35％，以美元约为2,600美元。
Colombia’s dependence on trade with the U.S. and neighboring Venezuela is proving to be a double whammy. The American recession has hit exports hard, and political differences with the administration of President Barack Obama hold out little hope of any near-term improvement. Uribe negotiated a free-trade pact with the administration of president George W. Bush in 2007, but Obama campaigned against the deal because of alleged human rights abuses in Colombia’s war on drug trafficking, and ratification efforts have stalled. Venezuela’s economy, meanwhile, has taken a beating as a result of collapsing oil prices and the virtual cutoff of international financial flows because of the confiscatory policies of President Hugo Chávez.
“Colombia may be a relatively insulated country, but it will not be able to escape the ravages of the international credit crunch,” says Walter Molano, chief emerging-markets analyst for BCP Securities in Greenwich, Connecticut.
该国还面临着2010年第二学期结束时的政治不确定性上升。总统在修改宪法的想法上三个任期，但他的受欢迎程度在最近几个月变暗，以及一些成员他的保守派联盟被认为是今年迟到的预计主要比赛的候选人。
与哥伦比亚一样，拉丁美洲的大多数都认为经济前景大幅恶化，这一趋势将在IADB会议上主导政策制定者和银行家的讨论。The region had resisted the global credit crisis better than many others through most of last year, but the sudden drop in demand from the U.S. and Europe in the fourth quarter and the sharp decline in commodity prices in the past six to nine months have dealt a severe blow to the area’s economies. The financial crisis has also hit home with a vengeance. The Institute of International Finance forecasts that the flow of private capital, which had buoyed the region in recent years, will drop to $43.1 billion this year, from an estimated $89.0 billion last year and a record $183.6 billion in 2007.
The IIF also predicts that the entire Latin American economy will grow by just 0.5 percent this year, down from 4.3 percent in 2008. Recession is hitting Mexico, which the International Monetary Fund projects will see output contract by 0.3 percent in 2009 under the pressure of declining trade with the U.S. Even Brazil, the region’s largest economy, is feeling the pinch. In January the IMF slashed its forecast for Brazilian growth this year by 1.2 percentage points, to 1.8 percent; that would be down from robust growth of 5.8 percent last year (see “Brazil: Where the Banks Grow,” page 70).
In Bogotá, Colombia’s capital, the government is taking advantage of its relatively strong fiscal position to increase spending in a bid to cushion the downturn. Finance Minister Oscar Iván Zuluaga laid out an economic program in January that includes infrastructure projects, social welfare programs and business lending. The government plans to boost spending on roads, housing and water and sanitation systems by 31 percent this year, to 5.7 trillion pesos ($2.2 billion). It will also nearly double the size of a welfare program that pays for better nutrition, education
and health care, called Familias en Acción, to cover 3 million people, up from 1.7 million currently. The aim is to “maintain employment generation and avoid a greater drop in the economy,” Zuluaga told Institutional Investor in a recent interview.
In addition to spending increases, the minister announced a total of $950 million in new credit lines for Colombia’s export bank to promote exports. He also boosted a guarantee fund for small business lending by $80 million, which is expected to increase bank lending in the sector by $500 million.
政府旨在通过扩大与中国的贸易来支持出口。11月，武器和中国总裁胡锦涛签署了一项致力于两国保护投资并消除双重税收的条约。值得注意的是，在今年的IADB会议上，中国将于去年加入开发银行以来首次作为会员参与。“我们需要拓宽[市场]访问并多样化我们的出口，一项策略基于吸引中国投资，”哥伦比亚驻世界贸易组织大使EduardoMuñoz说。
虽然他承认经济面临的巨大风险，但Zuluaga在展望上很乐观。“在危机时代，投资继续，出口正常，2008年的贬值低于其他国家，”他说。
The increased spending, combined with reduced tax receipts, will widen the government’s budget deficit by 0.6 percentage point, to 3.2 percent of gross domestic product, but Zuluaga says public finances are sound. Central government debt declined to 44 percent of GDP last year from 52 percent in 2002, and the country’s external debt — government and private sector combined — has fallen to 14.6 percent of GDP, from 20.6 percent in 2004.
政府在1月份发布了全球信贷市场的一个解冻，以发行10亿美元的十年债券，其定价为7.5％，或503个基本点，比较美国国债。哥伦比亚几乎一年，在类似的问题上支付了222个基本要点。
来自世界银行，IADB和Andean Development Corp的金融部亦确保今年的贷款23亿美元，以帮助资助社会计划，区域和可持续发展和金融体系支持。
哥伦比亚的银行体系相对健康,with capitalization levels averaging 14 percent — well above the 8 percent minimum required under the Basel global capital rules — and record profits that topped $1.69 billion last year. Colombian companies are “less exposed to derivatives and less leveraged in foreign currency than those in Brazil and Mexico,” says Francisco Aristeguieta, president of Citibank Colombia.
尽管如此，信贷紧缩正在制作。据哥伦比亚银行家协会Asobancaria介绍，11月份银行贷款增长率从两年前的28％涨至约10％。当地银行家说，Wachovia公司和美国银行公司是哥伦比亚银行的领先贷款人，但两者都削减了他们的信贷线。
商业管理人员已经谨慎态度，尽管最持续期待至少适中增长。“经济不屏蔽 - 危机慢慢到达，但它已经到了，”金融报纸Portafolio的经济分析师和创始人MauricioRodríguez告诉II。他仍然希望经济在2009年增长1％至2％。“外国投资和私人投资有良好的活力，”几家公司委员会的董事Rodríguez解释得左右，直到近期博格拉基毕业生学校COLEGIOde estudios superiores deAsspertación。“尚未担心但不是警报。
That business leaders remain somewhat optimistic despite the global slowdown reflects the dramatic political and economic gains that Colombia has achieved under President Uribe’s leadership.
右翼政治家来自富裕地区的富裕地区家庭，位于哥伦比亚西北部的山区农业区，其中梅德烈是首都。他的父亲是一个富有的牛牧场主，于1983年在哥伦比亚的革命武装部队的绑架尝试期间丧生，因为它的西班牙首字母缩略词所知。
作为律师培训的武器培训，并在Medellín和波哥大担任政府官员，并在1982年开始作为Medellín的Mayor的一篇简短的基金。然后，他于1986年至1994年担任参议员，并从1995年开始担任敌人的州长1997. He was elected president in 2002 after campaigning on a promise to crack down on the FARC.他成功颁布了一个宪法改革，允许他为第二学期跑到2006年。
当他开始他的第一学期时，该国的一半是在远程和另一个较小的左派小组，国家解放军的控制权。根据一个呼吁民主安全的计划，呼吸们增加了军事预算，导致武装部队面对左翼党的反叛者，并赋予美国的一手，以便尝试根除COCA农业。哥伦比亚每年获得5亿美元的美国，对贩毒战争的支持，使其成为西半球军事援助的最大接受者。
这些努力的结果一直是戏剧性的。在六年内，安全活动将Farc部队从18,000人减少到10,000。绑架从2008年的3500岁到700多年超过700人，谋杀率下降了大约一半的全国范围内。今天，全面的三分之二的哥伦比亚领土受到政府控制，包括包括波哥大，卡利和梅德利的经济中心的三角形。
“他在波哥大经济咨询公司经济咨询公司Econcept主任Juan Carlos Echeverry说，他清理了80％的经济的地区。”花旗银行的aristeguieta改善了公共安全“可以去的变化”。“顶级人才现在很乐意留在这个国家。”
The security transformation was highlighted last July, when an undercover Colombian military operation tricked FARC forces and rescued former presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt and other hostages who had been held captive for several years.
Security has come at a cost, though. Human rights groups criticize connections between government officials and military officers and right-wing death squads. More than 30 members of Congress, including Uribe’s cousin Mario, have landed in jail, accused of links with paramilitary forces that have terrorized the countryside. Hundreds of labor activists have been killed in recent years, many the apparent victims of right-wing paramilitary groups. Last fall Uribe fired 27 officers and soldiers, and later the head of the armed forces resigned, over cases in which poor people were lured away and killed, then dressed to make them appear as if they were rebels or criminals killed by the armed forces.
呼吁作为一个工作狂和微管理器的声誉，并与毒品和左翼叛乱的战争密切相关。在秘鲁利马的聚会上，在11月份亚太经济合作峰会会议期间，乌里韦被问到如何打击恐怖主义。“哥伦比亚总统必须表现为士兵，”他说，关注。“我是民用礼服的警察。决心，确定，确定是打击罪犯的关键规则。“
安全收益也不均匀。哥伦比亚在许多方面都是两个国家。一个以波哥大的银行和董事会为中心，在全球经济上秋天遇到了爆发之前的业务蓬勃发展。另一个是坚固的地形，由三个山脉越过，将彼此的城市分开到庞大的丛林，政府很少见到，可口可乐培养和贩运仍然茁壮成长。当毒贩流离失所的穷人和农村地区的贫困人群进入城市贫民窟和省级城镇时，这两个世界交叉。
尽管有缺点，哥伦比亚的安全气候已经提高了足以促进经济活动的戏剧性上升。该国的GDP自2002年以来几乎增加了两倍，去年达到约2220亿美元，或每人4,418美元。在此基础上，哥伦比亚在智利，委内瑞拉，墨西哥，巴西和阿根廷之后担任第六岁的拉丁美洲国家。自2002年以来，投资，出口和旅游访客都翻了一番。
The growth of foreign investment, which was virtually unheard of in the 1980s and early 1990s, when drug barons like Pablo Escobar and the Ochoa brothers terrorized the country, has been particularly dramatic. Such investment grew from $2.1 billion in 2002 to $9 billion in 2007, before easing back to $8 billion in 2008, according to Proexport, a Colombian investment promotion agency. (In 2006, the latest year for which comparable data is available, Colombia and Ecuador each drew $6 billion in investment, Peru attracted $3.5 billion, while Venezuela suffered a disinvestment of $500 million, according to the World Bank and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.)
外国直接投资已经大量的enough to finance the country’s current account deficit, which is running at a rate of about 3 percent of GDP. In 2005, London-based SABMiller bought Bavaria, the country’s largest brewery, for $4.7 billion, a deal that sent foreign investment to an all-time high of $10 billion that year. In 2007, Switzerland-based Glencore International pledged $2 billion for a refinery in Cartagena, and the Brazilian construction company Votorantim Group acquired 52 percent of the Acerías Paz del Río steel plant for $490 million. Last year, Brazilian mining giant Companhia Vale do Rio Doce invested $300 million in a coal mine and exploration prospect owned by Cementos Argos.
The surge in investment, combined with strong prices for Colombia’s commodity products, has led to a steady rise in exports. Oil and oil products accounted for 26 percent of exports in 2008, contributing to a 20 percent increase in revenues, to $36 billion.
但随着油价下跌低于40美元的桶，比去年大约四分之一高，博纳扎迅速蒸发。据摩根士丹利称，今年出口总额将降至310亿美元。哥伦比亚的三个主要市场的美国，委内瑞拉和厄瓜多尔的衰退，正在对该国的商品以及汽车零件和衣服等其他主要出口的需求。
The weakness of trading partners has had a dramatic effect on Colombia’s economy recently. Industrial production fell 13.3 percent in November from a year earlier, and 9.2 percent in December. The global downturn is also expected to hit remittances from abroad, a direct, effective cash transfer to some of the country’s poorest people. Remittances totaled $4.5 billion in 2007, according to the IADB.
Uribe had been hoping to use a free-trade agreement with the U.S. to sustain growth, but the recession as well as political opposition from the new U.S. administration have stalled, if not derailed, that ambition. In opposing the trade pact during his campaign, President Obama, backed by U.S. labor unions and their supporters in Congress, alleged that Colombia has done little to stop the killings of hundreds of labor activists, many of whom are believed to be the victims of right-wing paramilitary groups, in recent years.
哥伦比亚官员否认这些指控并坚持认为，政府在捍卫人权方面很有活力。“我们承诺继续为人权和劳工[权利]，有或没有自由贸易协议，”WTO大使穆尼克辛告诉II。“今天，劳动活动分子的死亡率是大的人口的一半。”
2010年5月前的政治不确定性总统选举也云哥伦比亚的展望。乌里韦暗示第三个术语。500万哥伦比亚人签署了一个倾向于宪法改革的请求，使他能够这样做，将此事推向国会，这可能会尽早投票，以便允许公民投票。
Opposition to a third term is building from foes and allies alike, who cite the need to uphold the rule of law and respect for the country’s political traditions. “All institutional arrangements in Colombia were made thinking about one-term presidents,” says Boris Segura, Morgan Stanley’s senior Latin America economist in New York. IADB president Luis Alberto Moreno, a former Colombian ambassador to the U.S. who is believed to have political ambitions of his own, in December told Bogotá’s El Tiempo newspaper, “I think he’s a great leader, but I don’t believe it is best that he continue in the presidency, even for him.”
Luis Carlos Villega被称为Anti的国家工业集团总裁，在12月份表示，“总统不应寻求第二次蝉联。它不方便民主。“
The next president, whoever he is, will face no small challenge in trying to sustain economic growth in the midst of a global recession and to keep insurgents and drug traffickers under control. But the progress made under Uribe in the past seven years offer hope that Colombia will continue to pursue a similar blend of economic and security policies, which may be the best reassurance the country can have in these uncertain times.
Says Guillermo Perry, research fellow with the Fedesarrollo policy think tank, based in Bogotá, “It is totally unthinkable that someone who won’t continue his policy will be elected.”