Latin America Equity Markets Come Roaring Back

Latin American equity markets defied the worldwide economic downturn for nearly a year before falling victim to it in the spring of 2008, when jittery investors began yanking their money out of stocks in search of safer havens. Now, thanks to aggressive economic stimulus initiatives by local governments, those same markets are well on their way to recovering last year’s catastrophic losses.

MSCI’s benchmark emerging-markets Latin America index ended July at 3,232.31, having soared nearly 95 percent (in dollar terms) since bottoming out in November, and many economists and equity strategists believe that the best is yet to come. “As investors’ risk aversion subsides and economic growth returns, the markets will continue to rise,” predicts Cristián Moreno, New York–based head of Latin America equity research at Santander.

Ben Laidler, J.P. Morgan’s head of Latin American equity research in New York, notes a key difference between the financial crisis in the U.S. and Europe and the turmoil that sent Latin American equity markets plunging. “What is going on in the developed markets is structural, but in the emerging markets it’s cyclical, which is why the Latin American markets came back so fast,” explains Laidler.

投资者seem to understand the distinction. Over the past few months, they have been snatching up the region’s stocks, now attractively valued after a market rout that saw the MSCI index plummet 68 percent from May 2008 through mid-November. Brazil, for instance, recorded its fifth straight month of net inflows in July, according to the nation’s Bolsa de Valores, Mercadorias & Futuros Bovespa exchange (see “Brazil Returns to the Boom Times”).

为了跟上飙升的投资者兴趣，许多公司一直在提升到该地区的覆盖范围。J.P. Morgan的研究人员现在追踪了160个拉丁美洲股票，比去年超过25个。“这是一个比12个月前的更大，更广泛的特许经营权，”莱德勒说。“我们已经在该地区建立了越来越靠近公司和当地客户，”他补充道。

该公司的侵略性扩张正在赢得投资者的赞誉。J.P. Morgan领导了2009年拉丁美洲研究团队，机构投资者的第17届年度股票分析师的第17届年度排名，由亚博赞助欧冠世界领先的货币管理人员决定，从第五位跳动。该公司捕获了15个总团队职位，这是去年赢得的八倍的两倍，而不是去年的排名第一，瑞士信贷速度超过第二名。

持有第三名稳定的是美国证券-Merrill Lynch的Banc，拥有13个职位 - 比去年更多。桑坦德和UBS PATTUAL TIES第四，每个位置都有11个位置。西班牙银行也在去年排名第4，挑选了两个团队职位。ubs愤怒地从第二名重新翻滚，失去了六个总团队职位。（4月份瑞士银行宣布，它将向基于SãoPaulo的BTG投资出售其巴西金融服务业务;预计今年晚些时候将关闭24.8亿美元。）

Stephen Haggerty, who was named head of Americas equity research in March, following Bank of America Corp.’s January acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co., points out that strong growth in the years preceding the worldwide economic crisis left local governments well positioned to respond quickly to the downturn. “We saw ample room for interest rate decreases in the first half of 2009 across Brazil and Chile, and as rates moved, performance of equity markets reflected improved fundamentals,” says Haggerty, who is based in New York. His 20 analysts follow 150 stocks.

Laidler, who leads the No. 2– ranked team in Equity Strategy, says his firm’s 23 analysts have been modifying their research to keep pace with changing investor expectations. “Last year was a big year for our strategy and economic products, and somewhat less so for individual stock research, but now that the market is coming back, it’s switching around,” he explains.

Analysts at Credit Suisse have also adjusted their approach to changing market conditions, according to Emerson Leite, the firm’s director of Latin American equity research. “Over the last 12 months, due to significant reduction in trading liquidity amid the crisis, we increased our focus on the large caps,” says Leite, who is based in São Paulo. “We now see an increased interest for small- and midcapitalization stocks, and we have one of the most broad coverages on the Street on this segment.”

领导石油，天然气和石化和共同领导的第二队在阿根廷和巴西共同领导的第二次队伍，为他的研究人员添加了两次分析师，共26岁;他们涵盖了140股股票。他计划进一步扩展，特别是在智利，哥伦比亚和秘鲁，并在拉丁美洲市场看涨。“即使全球经济衰退的直接影响，该地区也比其他市场袭击其应对的能力更强，”他说。

Santander is home to Latin America’s largest equity research operation; its 40 analysts track 198 stocks. They, too, have modified their approach in response to worldwide economic conditions. “We moved from focusing on companies’ income statements to focusing on their balance sheets, due to the increased financial risk we saw in the context of the global financial crisis,” says Moreno. As regional stock markets are roaring back, “we are moving from a risk-aversion strategy to a recovery strategy,” he adds.